NFL DRAFT: QUARTERBACKS THAT WILL GET A COACH FIRED

BY ADAM GREENE

You need to understand something. The irony of me picking Justin Herbert as a quarterback that could get his head coach fired last year and it happening, in spite of Herbert being fantastic and winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, has not been lost on me.

To be fair, I didn’t predict Herbert would be a bust, just that taking him at No. 6 was too high and that, in a perfect NFL where they had a developmental league for quarterbacks and teams weren’t maniacally desperate to land a signal-caller, he should have gone in the second round to the exact same team.

Was I wrong in that? Well, it looks that way, but one year does not a career make. Robert Griffin III was Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2012. Two years later he was benched for Kirk Cousins and, for the last three seasons, he’s set new high scores on Fruit Ninja on his Microsoft Surface tablet while pacing the Baltimore Ravens’ sideline.

For the record, my other selection last season for a QB-head coach doomsday was Jordan Love, but all he did was keep the Green Bay Packers from picking a legitimate wide receiver to go with the group of Fudrucker’s Grillmasters they’ve decided to play alongside Devante Adams.

In 2019, in a QB-poor draft, my selection that would get someone fired was Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins and considering that then Washington head coach Jay Gruden didn’t last the season, that’s a solid record right there.

Back in 2018, my pick for the head coach grim reaper was Wyoming’s Josh Allen, who right now might be one of the five best quarterbacks in the league. Again, let’s see him do it for another season before we place him on the Iron Throne, but you can see why I am emphatic in my belief that nobody knows anything about quarterbacks. That includes me.

And here’s a fun aside. As much as we all like to poke fun at Mel Kiper when he’s wrong, like saying JaMarcus Russell would be the next John Elway for instance, the dude with the ebon hair helmet seemed to be dead on about Allen. Kiper had Allen as the best QB prospect in the 2018 draft. Let’s see what kind of 2021 Allen has, but Kiper seems to have nailed that one. Let’s give the man his due.

So, let me be clear here. I’m not saying any of these quarterbacks are garbage or undraftable. What I am saying is that I either don’t see what has them rated so high, other than their position value and the fact that every NFL team without a franchise quarterback is desperate to get one, or there are major red flags – which we will get into.

On the bright side, thanks to the rookie salary cap, whiffing on a first round quarterback is no longer the franchise timebomb it used to be.

Still, these guys look risky to me, especially taken high.

ZACH WILSON, BYU

6-3, 210 pounds

2020” 73.5 completion percentage, 3,692 yards, 33 touchdowns, three interceptions, 254 rushing yards, 10 rushing touchdowns

There is no question that Wilson put up impressive stats for the Cougars and played at a high level this last season. His tape even looks great, but here’s the problem with it; he didn’t play anybody. You can’t say that about Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields or Mac Jones. Those guys saw NFL-caliber defensive players every single weekend. They completed their passes against guys that will be drafted in this coming draft or next season. There’s a good chance that no team Wilson faced with the Cougars in 2020 will put a defensive back in the NFL.

Wilson faced just two ranked schools all season, No. 21 Boise State and No. 14 Coastal Carolina. He was good against Boise, throwing for 360 yards and three touchdowns, but he had a rough outing against Coastal Carolina, throwing for just 240 yards, one touchdown and a pick in a 22-17 loss. According to DraftScout the Chanticleer have exactly two NFL prospects and neither guy is likely to get drafted.

So why do people like Wilson so much? It has to be Josh Allen. And, frankly, Wilson looks better coming out of college than Allen did. His completion percentage is nearly 20 points higher. But even if Josh Allen is exactly the quarterback he seems to be (an elite Top Five franchise guy), you can not count on that happening again. Josh Allen is one of one, as they say. Wilson is going to have to forge his own path and for a guy that probably hasn’t played with an NFL receiver or against an NFL corner, it might be tough.

Pro Comparison: Johnny Manziel

That’s not a knock on Wilson at all, because Manziel was a terrific college football player and he and Wilson look a lot alike. Manziel didn’t make it in the NFL because of what he was lacking between his ears and under his breastbone. Football talent was never his problem. He was just a moron with major issues across the board. The fact is, a clean cut Manziel could be exactly what the NFL, and the New York Jets, need. But I still would be nervous simply because he has, at no point in his life, come anywhere close to the speed of the NFL game. Lawrence, Fields and Jones all have.

TREY LANCE, NORTH DAKOTA STATE

6-4, 226 pounds

2020: Did Not Play

If you think that it’s an issue that Zach Wilson didn’t face any NFL talent while in college, let me introduce you to Trey Lance. Lance also likely never tossed a pass against an NFL defense back. In addition to that, he never played a down against the B-team players he would have faced this season thanks to opting out for COVID-19. I’m not criticizing him for that. Frankly, I think every single college football player should have done the same thing. It’s ridiculous these schools played (and lied, and covered up positive cases and put kids in danger) during the height of the global pandemic, but they did. Lance, smartly, refused to put himself at risk.

If there’s a bright side to Lance playing at a lower level it’s that he dominated it. He looked like a guy that did not belong there. So while he probably didn’t face a single NFL defensive back the last season he played, but he also didn’t throw a single interception to those scrubs either. His 2019 season boasted a 66.9 completion percentage, 28 touchdowns, zero interceptions, 1,100 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns.

Like Wilson benefiting from Allen’s success, I think the same thing is happening with Lance and Lamar Jackson. The problem is, of course, that Jackson is being misused and abused in Greg Roman’s Pop Warner Baltimore Ravens offense and if someone tries to pull that with Lance, it could be a disaster.

Pro Comparison: Lamar Jackson

If Lance went where he should, probably late in the first round or early in the second, he could sit behind a good quarterback on a better team and not be stuck running that  glorified veer option nonsense the Ravens have stuck Jackson with. If the Atlanta Falcons do take him, that would be the best possible thing for him. They’re going to run a pro style offense and to get a guy like Lance to run that, with his God-given physical skills, could lead to a next level offensive attack.

But if you’re picking Lance to start now, or next year, somebody’s probably getting fired. Especially if it’s a coach already with a malfunctioning seat warmer.

NEXT: LOW RISK, HIGH REWARD QUARTERBACKS

The NFL DRAFT begins on April 29 at 8 p.m. EST. You can check out my first mock draft by clicking here. You can view all of of BetOnline’s NFL Draft props by clicking here.

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