NFL MOCK DRAFT 1.0

BY ADAM GREENE

We are mere weeks away from the National Football League’s Annual Amateur Player Selection Meeting, so there’s no better time than to muddy the waters with our own mock draft.

Here’s the most important thing you need to take away from any mock draft you come across in your NFL travels; all of them will be wrong. Sure, we all usually hit the first pick and, thanks to some obvious moves and trades, everyone should be good through the opening three this year.

It’s after that when all mock drafts fall to pieces. Without looking, I’m pretty sure my career record is four correct picks in the 2014 draft. My guess is that’s probably pretty high, because with trades, reaches and falls, anything can happen. It’s what makes the NFL Draft one of the most fun sporting events in any given year.

Here’s what you won’t see in my mock draft; trades. Some people like to try to factor in a trade from their imagination and, I can tell you, I’ve never seen one of these fanciful mock draft trades come to fruition. While NFL GMs might need our help, they don’t take it. So I don’t even try. I will say that I see lots of trade potential in this draft, especially early and for QB needy teams. We could see some. Which, of course, will immediately smash everyone’s mock draft to smithereens.

Since we can make some money here while we enjoy watching teams get better or blow their picks, I’ll add in the futures and props odds where applicable.

NFL DRAFT

Date: Thursday, April 29 (Round 1), Friday, April 30 (Rounds 2-3), Saturday, May 1 (Rounds 4-7)

Start Time: 8 p.m. EST (Thursday), 7 p.m. (Friday), Noon (Saturday)

Broadcast: ESPN, NFL Network, NFL App

1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Trevor Lawrence, Quarterback, Clemson

(6-6, 220 pounds, 2020: 69.2 completion percentage, 3,153 yards, 24 touchdowns, five interceptions, 203 rushing yards, eight rushing touchdowns)

I’ve heard Lawrence described as the best QB prospect in a generation and I don’t buy that at all. Wouldn’t Andrew Luck still be part of this “generation?” What I do believe is that he’s the closest to a sure thing as you’re going to get at that position coming out of college. He has the resume and performances in big games, against NFL-caliber defensive players, that you want to see in a starting QB. I could go on, but this pick was a done deal from the close of last year’s draft. The only question throughout the NFL season was which team would tank enough to land him.

Betting: Trevor Lawrence goes No. 1 -10000

2. NEW YORK JETS

Zach Wilson, Quarterback, BYU

(6-3, 210 pounds, 2020: 73.5 completion percentage, 3,692 yards, 33 touchdowns, three interceptions, 254 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns)

While I’m with everyone else on Lawrence, I’m not as sure about Wilson. I feel like he’s getting a solid push not only because of his tape and performance, but because former Wyoming QB Josh Allen, with a similar pedigree, entered the upper echelon of NFL QBs last year. I’ll be diving into my quarterback rankings in the coming days, but regardless of what I think, it seems the Jets have him circled on their draft board and will make it happen.

For the record, I don’t think we can count on the jump Allen made being commonplace in the NFL for smaller school guys. For every Josh Allen and Steve Young, there’s a dumpster fires of Blake Bortles, J.P. Losmans, Josh Freemans, Patrick Ramseys, Jim Druckenmillers and Dave Browns.

Betting: Zach Wilson goes No. 2 -2000

3. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (from Miami Dolphins, from Houston Texans)

Justin Fields, Quarterback, Ohio State

(6-3, 228 pounds, 2020: 70.2 completion percentage, 2,100 yards, 22 touchdowns, six interceptions, 383 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns)

There are people out there, and you’ve seen them, saying that the 49ers could take Mac Jones here and that is simply insane. I refuse to believe that San Francisco traded up to No. 3 overall, giving up three first round draft picks in the process, to take Mac Jones. That did not happen.

What we do know is that the Niners obviously have a similar grade on both Fields and Wilson, since they’ll take whichever falls to them. I will say this as an early thought in the Wilson vs. Fields debate, it seems like a lot of NFL people, especially scouts, are trying to convince themselves of something different than they’ve witnessed with their own eyes. Because Justin Fields looks like the real deal to me. And if the whole “Ohio State QB” thing is a hang up, when was the last Alabama QB to become a legit NFL starter? The jury is obviously still out on Tua Tagovailoa (and Jalen Hurts), so you’d have to go all the way back to Ken Stabler in 1967. The point is, past failures (and successes) have nothing to do with the guys coming out this year.

4. ATLANTA FALCONS

Caleb Farley, Cornerback, Virginia Tech

(6-2, 207 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)

The Falcons have already started playing the draft day poker game, first floating the idea that they were thinking about drafting Trey Lance as Matt Ryan’s successor, then openly talking about how sweet this pick is and what a shame it would be to have to trade it away.

So they’re definitely looking to move down for the right price. And they should probably have a taker. But, by my own commandment, I do not factor in trades. Instead, I make the best pick for each team and, in this case, it’s Farley, a guy who never played a down in 2020, but was so good as a sophomore with the Hokies (20 tackles, four interceptions, one defensive touchdown, 12 passes defended) he remained a top ranked corner in this draft class. They could still end up with Farley, but probably at a lower pick.

5. CINCINNATI BENGALS

Kyle Pitts, Tight End, Florida

(6-6, 246 pounds, 2020: 43 catches, 770 yards, 12 touchdowns)

Is this too high for a tight end? Have you seen how NFL offenses look with elite tight ends? Travis Kelce in Kansas City? George Kittle in San Francisco? Rob Gronkowski in wherever city Tom Brady wants to play?

The Bengals have been snakebit in recent years, with first rounders going down with injuries like clockwork. That includes last year’s No. 1 overall Joe Burrow. While they still need to focus on offensive line in this draft, they’ll have options in the second round there. J’Marr Chase makes a lot of sense too, but they already have two good wideouts in Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. What they don’t have is that elite NFL tight end match up that has taken the Chiefs to the Super Bowl twice to face teams with Kittle and Gronk lining up on the other side. In fact, the last three Super Bowl winners all had this type of TE starting on the roster.

Betting: Kyle Pitts selected under 5.5 -130

6. MIAMI DOLPHINS (from Philadelphia Eagles)

Ja’Marr Chase, Wide Receiver, LSU

(6-0, 208 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)

Chase, knowing full well he was a Top 10 NFL Draft pick, decided not to risk his health and body by playing a meaningless college football season during a global pandemic. It obviously made no difference. Chase caught 84 passes for 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns in LSU’s national title season from Burrow, which is why the Bengals might pull the trigger on him instead of Pitts. If they do, then Pitts goes here. Either way, I feel both guys are probably off the board by the time the Lions are on the clock.

Betting: Ja’Marr Chase push at six, first WR selected -500

7. DETROIT LIONS

DeVonta Smith, Wide Reciever, Alabama

(6-1, 175 pounds, 2020: 117 catches, 1,856 yards, 23 touchdowns, one rushing TD)

So many times the secret to acing the draft is just not outsmarting yourself. Chase and Adams are the two best WRs in this class. I won’t hear otherwise and both performed at otherworldly levels on the game’s biggest stage. Just pick one. If one of them is gone, in this case Chase, then pick Smith and don’t think another thing about it. People are going to talk about Micah Parsons or Jaylen Waddle here. Don’t listen, Detroit. Trust your eyes, what you saw on the field. Turn in this pick. (And if Smith and Chase are both gone, that means Pitts is available and you know what to do).

Betting: DeVonta Smith picked under 11.5 -140

8. CAROLINA PANTHERS

Penei Sewll, Offensive Lineman, Oregon

(6-6, 330 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)

With their trade for Sam Darnold last week, the Panthers officially took themselves out of the QB draft sweepstakes. As such, this pick could be up for grabs for the highest bidder. But, as I said earlier, I don’t do that. The Panthers have an elite running back they need to stay healthy and a QB now in Darnold they must rebuild from the ground up. That means getting him some protection and Christian McCaffrey a guy that can push defenders out of the way.

Betting: Penei Sewell first OL picked -400, over 5.5 -130

9. DENVER BRONCOS

Trey Lance, Quarterback, North Dakota State

(6-4, 226 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)

Lance opted out as he should have as FCS decided to play in the spring and he had no desire to be dodging defensive lineman the same weekend he got selected in the draft. As for the Broncos? Hey, what else are they going to do? Not take a QB? Not unless they trade for Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Lock has compromising photos of Vic Fangio. You keep trying until you get a guy and no one can fault the Broncos for giving it a go. As it is, Lance is a solid prospect for the team whose QB threw the most interceptions in the NFL in 2020. Back in 2019, Lance completed 66.9 percent of his passes for 2,786 yards, 28 touchdowns and ZERO interceptions. It’s like it was meant to be.

Betting: Trey Lance picked over 6.5 -150

10. DALLAS COWBOYS

Patrick Surtain II, Cornerback, Alabama

(6-2, 202 pounds, 2020: 37 tackles, 3.5 for a loss, one interception, one defensive touchdown, nine passes defended)

Dallas has an elite offense led by the worst offensive mind in the sport. As such, they better continue building and bulking their defense, which has holes at corner and safety. Surtain plugs one of them. While they don’t face elite passing games in the NFC East, if they do want to make any serious playoff push (and considering Mike McCarthy remains their head coach, that’s debatable), they need to go for a corner that can line up with the likes of Davante Adams, Mike Evans and Michael Thomas.

Betting: Because I do think the Falcons will trade down, Patrick Surtain II at -130 as the first defensive player drafted could be a good bet.

11. NEW YORK GIANTS

Jaylen Waddle, Wide Receiver, Alabama

(5-10, 182 pounds, 2020: 28 catches, 591 yards, four touchdowns)

The Giants have done a lot to improve their offense this season, but probably nothing will do more than getting Saquon Barkley back. As it is, they could go offensive line here, but I say go all in with Daniel Jones. Give him three NFL wideouts, a good tight end and running back and see what the kid can do. Nate Solder’s return from his COVID-19 opt out should solve a lot of their offensive line issues that they don’t address in the second and third rounds.

Betting: Jaylen Waddle selected under 11.5 -140

12. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (from Miami Dolphins, from San Francisco 49ers)

Micah Parsons, Linebacker, Penn State

(6-3, 245 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)

The Eagles have collected some extra picks by moving down in the draft and use their first one here on Parsons, the best player available. They need to go BPA because, simply, this team needs one of everything. Parsons, of course, opted out of 2020 but in 2019 recorded 109 tackles, 14 for a loss, five sacks and five passes defended.

13. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Christian Darrisaw, Offensive Lineman, Virginia Tech

(6-5, 314 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)

As a loaded team that underachieved in 2020 thanks to an inept coaching staff, the Chargers have the luxury of taking the best player available. It doesn’t hurt that their BPA is a highly rated offensive lineman that spent the last year playing Playstation. Darrisaw had an elite 2019, which is why he’s ranked so high now, with just six QB pressures surrendered.

14. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Kwity Paye, Defensive Lineman, Michigan

(6-4, 272 pounds, 2020: 16 tackles, four for a loss, two sacks)

Paye missed most of 2020 with an injury and probably wished he’d just opted out like half the other first rounders. As it is, his short term did not hurt or help his draft status and he fills a need here for the Vikings in addition to being the BPA.

15. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Jaelan Phillips, Defensive Lineman, UCLA

(6-5, 266 pounds, 2020: 45 tackles, 15.5 for a loss, eight sacks, one interception, three passes defended)

Here is where I’m going to cheat a little bit, because this would be a solid spot for Mac Jones if I didn’t believe, wholeheartedly, that the Patriots were going to trade for Jimmy Garoppolo either on Draft Day or on Day Two. The signs are just pointing that way, with the 49ers signing Nate Sudfeld as a back up a few days ago. That means, if they take a QB at No. 3 (and they will), they’d have four QBs on the roster with Garoppolo, the rookie, Josh Rosen and Sudfeld. That’s just ridiculous. I think that deal’s happening and Bill Belichick takes a defensive lineman in the first round as he’s done six times in his tenure in New England.

16. ARIZONA CARDINALS

Asante Samuel Jr,, Cornerback, Florida State

(5-10, 184 pounds, 2020: 30 tackles, one for a loss, three interceptions, six passes defended, two fumble recoveries)

Samuel Jr. opted out of the end of the 2020 season and probably wished he’s skipped the whole thing since FSU won all of three games. Arizona has spent the offseason filling holes in free agency with the exception of corner, as they let Patrick Peterson walk. Which is why Samuel Jr. gets the nod here.

17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Christian Barmore, Defensive Lineman, Alabama

(6-5, 310 pounds, 2020: 37 tackles, 9.5 for a loss, eight sacks, three passes defended, three forced fumbles)

The Raiders are a team that historically loves to outsmart itself when it comes to draft day so I’ve made a huge mistake here selecting the most logical player for them at this position. Barmore is the best defensive lineman on the board, coming from an elite team that just won the national championship. I’ll be shocked if it happens.

18. MIAMI DOLPHINS

Rashawn Slater, Offensive Lineman, Northwestern

(6-4, 315 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)

After already locking down their wideout, the Dolphins now shore up their offensive line with Slater, another guy who decided his X-Box was more inviting than playing meaningless college football during a global pandemic.

Betting: Rashawn Slater picked over 11.5 +110

19. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM

Mac Jones, Quarterback, Alabama

(6-3, 214 pounds, 2020: 77.4 completion percentage, 4,500 yards, 41 touchdowns, four interceptions, one rushing touchdown)

Here we go, quarterback No. 5 goes to the WFT. Washington cut their best chance at remaining a playoff team by releasing Alex Smith. In signing Ryan Fitzpatrick as their new starter, they’ve all but assured that they’ll draft an Alabama quarterback and mess up his development because Fitzpatrick is so hard to bench.

20. CHICAGO BEARS

Alijah Vera-Tucker, Offensive Lineman, USC

(6-4, 315 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)

If Jones falls to them, the Bears will probably pull that trigger. As it is, I think they stand pat with Andy Dalton in 2021 and do their best to keep him upright by adding the next best couch surfing offensive lineman in the draft class.

21. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Tevin Jenkins, Offensive Lineman, Oklahoma State

(6-6, 320 pounds, 2020: Started eight games, surrendered zero sacks)

A lower back issue ended Jenkins’ season a little early, but he’s a first round talent used to pass blocking in a pass heavy offense. The Colts are trying to rebuild Carson Wentz and keeping him from eating turf will go a long way toward doing that.

22. TENNESSEE TITANS

Gregory Rousseau, Edge Rusher, Miami

(6-7, 265 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)

The Titans’ pass rush was a joke last season as they compiled just 19 total sacks as a team. That should not be possible with NFL talent. There are edge rushing prospects ranked ahead of Rousseau, but they’re all guys that need a ton of work and didn’t produce like Rousseau did at the college level. He sat out last season, but in 2019 he recorded 54 tackles, 19.5 for a loss, 15.5 sacks, one pass defended, one fumble recovery and two forced fumbles.

23. NEW YORK JETS (from Seattle Seahawks)

Kadarius Toney, Wide Receiver, Florida

(6-0, 193 pounds, 2020: 70 catches, 984 yards, 10 touchdowns, 161 rushing yards, one rushing yard)

The Jets need everything and have already added a wideout in free agency in Corey Davis. I say they should take one again and give Wilson every chance to succeed with legit NFL weapons.

24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Linebacker, Notre Dame

(6-1, 215 pounds, 2020: 62 tackles, 11 for a loss, 1.5 sacks, one interceptions, three passes defended, two fumble recoveries, one defensive touchdown, three forced fumbles)

The Steelers could use an offensive lineman, but Owusu-Karomoah is a solid upgrade at inside linebacker, a position they need to shore up considering the running attacks they face in the AFC North.

25. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (from Los Angeles Rams)

Rashod Bateman, Wide Receiver, Minnesota

(6-2, 210 pounds, 2020: 36 catches, 472 yards, two touchdowns)

After putting up great numbers in his first five games, Bateman decided he’d played enough college football and sat out the rest of the way. The Jaguars need everything, but lucky for them they have the picks to get a lot of it. I say they go wideout here to give Lawrence a good new weapon to grow with. In a full season in 2019, Bateman caught 60 passes for 1,219 yards and 11 touchdowns.

26. CLEVELAND BROWNS

Azeez Ojulari, Linebacker, Georgia

(6-3, 240 pounds, 2020: 31 tackles, 12.5 for a loss, 9.5 sacks, two passes defended, one fumble recovery)

The Browns need a linebacker and an edge rusher so lucky for them Ojulari can be both. Like the Steelers, they need to beef up their second level as they face off against some of the best running games in the NFL all in their own division.

27. BALTIMORE RAVENS

Jayson Oweh, Edge Rusher, Penn State

(6-5, 252 pounds, 2020: seven starts, 38 tackles, 6.5 for a loss, zero sacks, one pass defended)

For whatever reason the NFL seems high on Oweh, who recorded all of zero sacks in his seven games this season and just five in a full season last year. This guy is a project, but the Ravens need an edge rusher and in spite of all the statistical evidence, this guy seems highly ranked at the position. If there is a team that can afford to select a project on defense, it’s Baltimore.

28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Jaycee Horn, Cornerback, South Carolina

(6-1, 205 pounds, 2020: seven games played, 16 tackles, one for a loss, two interceptions, six passes defended)

New Orleans could be the team that selects the sixth QB in the first round of this draft. I say they stand pat with Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill and go for need here, plucking Horn from a surprisingly deep corner class.

29. GREEN BAY PACKERS

Terrance Marshall Jr,, Wide Receiver, LSU

(6-3, 200 pounds, 2020: 48 catches, 731 yards, 10 touchdowns)

It’s time for the Packers to stop screwing around with the worst wide receiver corps outside of Washington in last year’s playoff field. Devante Adams is one of the best in the NFL, but no other receiver on their roster would make the gameday cut for most NFL teams, and certainly not anybody that finished with a winning record. Marshall Jr. is the big, fast, physical target that Rodgers likes and should start immediately.

30. BUFFALO BILLS

Joseph Ossai, Linebacker, Texas

(6-4, 253 pounds, 2020: nine games, 55 tackles, 15.5 for a loss, 5.5 sacks, two passes defended, one fumble recovery, three forced fumbles)

The Bills are stacked, but could use some help at edge rusher and linebacker, so why not pick a guy that can do both? His 4.63 40 at his Pro Day should help Buffalo get the added defensive speed they’ve been desperate for since their AFC Championship defeat.

31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Jaylen Mayfield, Offensive Lineman, Michigan

(6-5, 320 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)

Here’s another lineman who really put his Nintendo Switch to use in the offseason, Mayfield is, according to Pro Football Focus, one of the most explosive linemen in this class. As for the Chiefs, if they don’t turn in an OL pick here, somebody in their front office should be out of work the next day.

32. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Kyle Trask, Quarterback, Florida

(6-5, 240 pounds, 2020: 68.9 completion percentage, 4,283 yards, 43 touchdowns, eight interceptions, three rushing touchdowns)

Here it is, the moment where I diverge from everyone else’s mock drafts entirely. I like Trask a lot. His numbers are phenomenal and he did it against SEC competition, guys that will consistently be playing football on Sundays. The Bucs have to think about their future without Tom Brady. At best, it’s two years away. At worst, it’s a hit away in September. They can’t afford to wait around for Trask to fall to them in the second round, because he will not be there. They also need to secure that fifth year option too.

TEAMS WITHOUT A FIRST ROUND PICK

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (first pick, No. 56)

Wyatt Davis, Offensive Lineman, Ohio State

(6-4, 315 pounds, 2020: eight games played, three sacks allowed, seven hurries allowed)

Russell Wilson has made it clear that the Seahawks need to upgrade their offensive line. He shouldn’t have had to, as it was obvious to everyone. According to the rankings, Davis could be there at 56 and, if he is, they should let Wilson turn in the card. Or, you know, text it in virtually.

LOS ANGELES RAMS (first pick, No. 57)

Jamin Davis, Linebacker, Kentucky

(6-4, 234 pounds, 2020: 102 tackles, four for a loss, 1.5 sacks, three interceptions, one defensive touchdown, two passes defended, one forced fumble)

The weakness in the Rams top ranked defense was at inside linebacker. Micah Kiser and Troy Reeder held down the fort, but Davis can be the kind of factor that Cory Littleton was before Los Angeles lost him to the Las Vegas Raiders in free agency.

HOUSTON TEXANS (first pick, No. 67)

Joe Tryon, Edge Rusher, Washington

(6-5, 262 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)

The Texans have had a disaster of an offseason across the board. Seeing that their first pick somes in the third round won’t help, but Tryon could be a day one starter after riding his Barcalounger in 2020. In 2019, he recorded 41 tackles, 12.5 for a loss, eight sacks and one pass defense.

THE REST OF THE NFL DRAFT PROPS

First RB Selected: Najee Harris -170

Cornerbacks drafted in the first round: 4 –Push

Offensive Linemen drafted in the first round: under 6.5 -150

Running backs drafted in the first round: under 0.5 -250

Safeties drafted in the first round: under 0.5 +160

Total defensive players drafted in first round: under 14.5 -150

Total offensive players drafted in the first round: over 17.5 -165

Wide receivers drafted in first round: over 4.5 -250

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