NFL Football Betting: San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bruce Arians retired from coaching at the end of 2017, but it took just one season in the booth to convince him to return to the sidelines. Arians took over for Dirk Koetter in Tampa Bay and will look to be the third Buccaneer coach to have a winning percentage over .400. 

He’ll have his work cut out for him. Despite various periods of hype, the Bucs have the NFL’s worst record over the last seasons. 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
LINE: BUCS -1
TOTAL: 50.5

The 49ers have had their own struggles. Since Jim Harbaugh left at the end of 2014, they’ve had three coaches and haven’t won more than six games in a season. They’re also recovering from their own hype issues after entering 2018 as favorites to win the NFC West and ending it with the second pick in the draft.

Granted, part of their failures were due to Jimmy Garoppolo’s torn ACL in Week 3. Garoppolo appears to be fully recovered, though his doubters would say he’s not completely back to normal after a shaky preseason.

Garoppolo has never faced the Bucs, but he does have one career start against Arians. That was his first career start in 2016 when he filled in for the suspended Tom Brady. The Patriots beat Arizona on the road, 23-21, and Garoppolo completed 24 of 33 passes for 264 yards and a touchdown. 

However, Arians went 6-0 against San Francisco in the post-Harbaugh era. Against the 49ers’ current coach, Kyle Shanahan, Arians was 3-1 ATS and left Arizona on a three-cover streak.

Jameis Winston remains Tampa’s starter and Arians is the most successful head coach he’s had. This game could be the beginning of the long-awaited leap for Winston. Unfortunately, he could be without star receiver Mike Evans. Evans was added to the Friday injury report and is questionable due to an illness. Arians said a bug has been going around the Tampa locker room and the symptoms are usually gone within 24 hours. Still, late-week additions to the injury report are always a cause for concern.

It’s also unclear how the Florida heat will affect Evans’ illness. Weather services expect a humid afternoon with a high of 92 degrees. One would think the Bucs would thrive in such an environment, but recent history suggests otherwise. Since 2012, the Bucs are 4-7 ATS in September home games. They’re 1-2 ATS in games Winston started.

The 49ers lost to the Bucs 27-9 when they visited Tampa last season, but this time they’ll have reinforcements. On top of Garoppolo’s return, Kwon Alexander is set to start against his former team after tearing his ACL in Week 7 of last season. The additions of Dee Ford and Nick Bosa should help 49ers improve their sack totals after finishing tied for 22nd in the league with 37 in 2018.

BET TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -1 OVER SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The line has fluctuated over the last week, with roughly equal time to given San Francisco -1, Tampa -1 and pick ‘em. In other words, if the general “home field is worth three points” rule is to be believed, the 49ers would be favored by three or four on a neutral field and six or seven at home. That’s a lot of respect for a team that was one of the league’s worst last season, regardless of who’s returning.

San Francisco to Tampa is one of the longest trips an NFL team can make. Though the 49ers won’t have to deal with the dreaded 10 am PT start time, they will have to deal with the weather. The 49ers are certainly trying to prepare, but there’s no substitute for the real thing. The Bucs kick off the Arians era with a win and a cover.

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