NFL Football Betting: Week 6 MVP Futures

Our latest MVP Futures installment has a new member, but is the top spot unchanged? Be sure to check out our analysis of last week as well as this week before placing a bet.

THANKS BUT NO THANKS

CARSON WENTZ +2000

Wentz has only completed 60.3 percent of his passes. The only quarterbacks that trail him are Cam Newton, Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen. He’s 19th in QB rating and in the bottom 10 in yards per attempt. There’s no value here.

AARON RODGERS +1200

It’s name value alone that’s giving Rodgers +1200 odds. His numbers would earn him the dreaded “game manager” label if he hadn’t built up a reputation. He might get some consideration due to Green Bay’s record, though if the season ended today, he wouldn’t even be a shoo-in for the Pro Bowl. He’d be a great dark horse in the +2500 to +3000 range, but at +1200 he’s a stay-away.

BAKER MAYFIELD +5000

Just a reminder that Mayfield was +2000 last week–the same as Russell Wilson–despite having more interceptions than touchdown passes. His abominable performance on Monday night raised his odds considerably, but still not high enough.

DARK HORSES

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY +750

For running backs to get serious consideration in this day and age, they have to break records. McCaffrey is in position to do just that. He has 866 yards from scrimmage which puts him on pace for 2,771. That would shatter the record set by Chris Johnson (2,509) in 2009. Granted, Johnson didn’t win MVP that year, but the Titans were 8-8. If the Panthers win the NFC South, McCaffrey has a shot.

JIMMY GAROPPOLO +2500

Garoppolo’s numbers aren’t great, but the 49ers are undefeated. He’d obviously need to be much more involved in San Francisco’s success from here on out. At +2500, a Jimmy G bet is defensible considering his team’s success.

TOP FIVE

1. RUSSELL WILSON +275

We had Wilson as the second-best bet last week, back when you could get him at +2000. The buy-low window is over. Wilson leads the league in touchdowns (12) and still hasn’t thrown an interception. He has the league’s best QB rating and is second in completion percentage. Though he’s one of the MVP frontrunners, his value isn’t nearly as good at +275.

2. DESHAUN WATSON +750

The problem with Watson is inconsistency. He did basically nothing in two of five games. Then he reminded us what he’s capable of when he threw for 426 yards and five touchdowns last week. Maybe it’s better to wait on Watson until he has another down
week.

3. DAK PRESCOTT +2000

Prescott is fourth in yards per game and tied for second in touchdowns. He had a rough game against Green Bay, so his odds jumped from +1200 to +2000. Since the Cowboys have a few easy quarterback matchups coming up (NYJ, PHI, NYG) these might be the best Prescott odds we see for a while. 

4. PATRICK MAHOMES +125

Mahomes had another less than stellar game so his status as odds-on favorite is in jeopardy. The good news is he’s averaging 366.2 yards per game, leading the league by a comfortable margin. The touchdowns will come, especially when his receiving corps gets healthier. This could be the ideal time to make a profit on Mahomes.

5. TOM BRADY +1200

Brady just had his best statistical game of the season, yet his odds went from +1000 to +1200. If you liked him last week, you have to like him even more this week.

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