NFL MOCK DRAFT 2.0
You want to get nuts? Let’s get nuts, because as we sit here a day away from the NFL Draft, the entire football world has turned upside down. We’ve had health revelations about Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields. I say “revelations” as if the NFL teams didn’t already know about his epilepsy. We, the media and general public, did not. The San Francisco 49ers playing chicken with the league on who they’re going to pick and we have the Kansas City Chiefs completely trading out of the first round a week before we all get to boo Roger Goodell through our televisions.
In the first mock draft, I didn’t include trades, but this time I’m shaking it up. Because not only are there always trades, there has to be one, if not more, in the Top 10 picks in this draft. I’ll do my best to predict who it will be. I’ll still be wrong, because everyone always is.
As before, there’s money to be made as we watch teams get dramatically better or ruin their franchises for a half decade. So I’ll note the futures and props odds where applicable.
You can check out my first mock draft by clicking here.
Date: Thursday, April 29 (Round 1), Friday, April 30 (Rounds 2-3), Saturday, May 1 (Rounds 4-7)
Start Time: 8 p.m. EST (Thursday), 7 p.m. (Friday), Noon (Saturday)
Broadcast: ESPN, NFL Network, NFL App
1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Trevor Lawrence, Quarterback, Clemson
(6-6, 220 pounds, 2020: 69.2 completion percentage, 3,153 yards, 24 touchdowns, five interceptions, 203 rushing yards, eight rushing touchdowns)
Nothing at all has changed here. Lawrence remains the top pick and has been since the conclusion of last year’s draft. Our only question now, according to the props, is the color of his wife Melissa’s dress on draft day. It’s got to be Clemson orange (+150), right? If you want to make some more cash here, Trev likely hugs Melissa first (+125). Since he’s not attending in person, I don’t think he’ll wear a tie (-135) and he probably won’t cry (-1000).
2. NEW YORK JETS
Zach Wilson, Quarterback, BYU
(6-3, 210 pounds, 2020: 73.5 completion percentage, 3,692 yards, 33 touchdowns, three interceptions, 254 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns)
While Fields is my No. 2 QB prospect in this draft, the Jets disagree and this pick is all but set in stone.
3. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (from Miami Dolphins, from Houston Texans)
Trey Lance, Quarterback, North Dakota State
(6-4, 226 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)
My thoughts remain the same. This is too high and too much to give up for Lance or Mac Jones. I have no idea what the 49ers were thinking, trading this much for either of these guys. They’ve been leaking Jones and Lance all week and I say they go Lance, reiterating my thought that there’s just no way you trade two extra first round picks to select Mac Jones.
4. TRADE! DENVER BRONCOS from ATLANTA FALCONS
Justin Fields, Quarterback, Ohio State
(6-3, 228 pounds, 2020: 70.2 completion percentage, 2,100 yards, 22 touchdowns, six interceptions, 383 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns)
There was never a scenario in my mind where Atlanta sits with this pick. After the Niners take Lance (or Jones), the floodgates open and somebody buys this one from them. I’ve gone with the Broncos, because their QB desperation must be at an all-time high, but don’t be shocked to see the Carolina Panthers end up here, regardless of their Sam Darnold trade. As for what the Broncos will give up to move here? I have no idea, but my guess is a No. 1 from next year too at the very least.
5. CINCINNATI BENGALS
Penei Sewell, Offensive Lineman, Oregon
(6-6, 330 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)
The Bengals control the entire non-QB portion of the entire draft and they could listen to some offers for this pick. They can really do no wrong, taking Sewell, J’Marr Chase or Kyle Pitts (as I had them selecting in my first mock draft) at this spot. This time, I’m going with the best offensive lineman, because you can hardly blame Cincy for wanting to protect Joe Burrow and his reconstructed knee.
6. TRADE! CAROLINA PANTHERS from MIAMI DOLPHINS
Mac Jones, Quarterback, Alabama
(6-3, 214 pounds, 2020: 77.4 completion percentage, 4,500 yards, 41 touchdowns, four interceptions, one rushing touchdown)
I say this is too high for Jones, but the way teams are losing it for these quarterbacks with the clock ticking down to draft day, you have to trade up to take one. I say the Panthers do it here, in spite of the aforementioned Darnold trade.
7. DETROIT LIONS
Ja’Marr Chase, Wide Receiver, LSU
(6-0, 208 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)
The Lions could get involved in the trade ups, regardless of the Jared Goff deal. I’m leaving them here and handing them Chase, replacing the departed Kenny Golladay with a player significantly better.
8. MIAMI DOLPHINS FROM DENVER BRONCOS
Kyle Pitts, Tight End, Florida
(6-6, 246 pounds, 2020: 43 catches, 770 yards, 12 touchdowns
The Dolphins play the draft perfectly and get one its four best players landing right in their laps at No. 8.
9. ATLANTA FALCONS FROM DENVER BRONCOS
Patrick Surtain II, Cornerback, Alabama
(6-2, 202 pounds, 2020: 37 tackles, 3.5 for a loss, one interception, one defensive touchdown, nine passes defended)
The Falcons trade down, collect some picks and get the corner they’re desperate for in this draft.
10. DALLAS COWBOYS
Jaycee Horn, Cornerback, South Carolina
(6-1, 205 pounds, 2020: seven games played, 16 tackles, one for a loss, two interceptions, six passes defended)
The draft begins settling in here, with the Cowboys solving their cornerback issue with Horn.
11. NEW YORK GIANTS
DeVonta Smith, Wide Receiver, Alabama
(6-1, 175 pounds, 2020: 117 catches, 1,856 yards, 23 touchdowns, one rushing TD)
The Giants have already added Golladay in free agency. Now they grab the Heisman Trophy winner to pair with him.
12. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (from Miami Dolphins, from San Francisco 49ers)
Jaylen Waddle, Wide Receiver, Alabama
(5-10, 182 pounds, 2020: 28 catches, 591 yards, four touchdowns)
The Eagles need some help on defense, but if they want to set Jalen Hurts up for success, he needs good weapons on offense. Waddle is the best guy left.
13. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Rashawn Slater, Offensive Lineman, Northwestern
(6-4, 315 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)
The Chargers shore up their offensive line to keep Justin Herbert upright and dealing the ball to their already elite offensive targets.
14. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Kwity Paye, Defensive Lineman, Michigan
(6-4, 272 pounds, 2020: 16 tackles, four for a loss, two sacks)
We finally get back on track with my original mock draft as the Vikings strengthen their defensive line with Paye.
15. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Jaelan Phillips, Defensive Lineman, UCLA
(6-5, 266 pounds, 2020: 45 tackles, 15.5 for a loss, eight sacks, one interception, three passes defended)
I’m sticking with my original plan for the Pats as well. If New England does go defensive line, it will be the seventh time in Bill Belichick’s tenure they selected that position in the first round.
16. ARIZONA CARDINALS
Asante Samuel Jr,, Cornerback, Florida State
(5-10, 184 pounds, 2020: 30 tackles, one for a loss, three interceptions, six passes defended, two fumble recoveries)
The Cardinals have a gaping hole on their defense with the loss of Patrick Peterson. They must try to fill it.
17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Christian Barmore, Defensive Lineman, Alabama
(6-5, 310 pounds, 2020: 37 tackles, 9.5 for a loss, eight sacks, three passes defended, three forced fumbles)
The Raiders need defensive line. Barmore is the best one left on the board. By stating two obvious facts I’ve likely talked Las Vegas out of making the pick and they’ll turn in a longsnapper.
18. MIAMI DOLPHINS
Christian Darrisaw, Offensive Lineman, Virginia Tech
(6-5, 314 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)
After picking an all-world tight end, the Dolphins add to the offensive line with a guy that’s set new records on Mario Kart this past season.
19. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM
Alijah Vera-Tucker, Offensive Lineman, USC
(6-4, 315 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)
With all the quarterbacks out of reach, the WFT adds an offensive lineman to build a front for the QB they’ll try to take next year.
20. CHICAGO BEARS
Tevin Jenkins, Offensive Lineman, Oklahoma State
(6-6, 320 pounds, 2020: Started eight games, surrendered zero sacks)
There’s a chance, still floating around, that the Bears could ship this pick to Houston for Deshaun Watson, whose price has dropped significantly over the last few weeks. He might be too radioactive even for that now, so I’m going O-line here and Chicago punts their QB problem to next year.
21. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Jaylen Mayfield, Offensive Lineman, Michigan
(6-5, 320 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)
Our run on offensive lineman continues as you’d hope the Colts have learned their lesson on placing a young QB behind a suspect front after costing themselves a generational talent in Andrew Luck.
22. TENNESSEE TITANS
Gregory Rousseau, Edge Rusher, Miami
(6-7, 265 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)
Rousseau had 15.5 sacks in 2019. The entire Titans team had 19 sacks last season. They can not turn in this card fast enough.
23. NEW YORK JETS (from Seattle Seahawks)
Kadarius Toney, Wide Receiver, Florida
(6-0, 193 pounds, 2020: 70 catches, 984 yards, 10 touchdowns, 161 rushing yards, one rushing yard)
What do you get the team that needs everything? A wide receiver to catch passes from its new QB.
24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Micah Parsons, Linebacker, Penn State
(6-3, 245 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)
The Steelers need to improve their linebacker play inside as they face some of the best run games in the league in their own division. Parsons adds that, plus he brings extra pass rush. In 2019 he recorded 109 tackles, 14 for a loss, five sacks and five passes defended.
25. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (from Los Angeles Rams)
Rashod Bateman, Wide Receiver, Minnesota
(6-2, 210 pounds, 2020: 36 catches, 472 yards, two touchdowns)
Like the Jets, the Jaguars need to add a weapon for their new quarterback and Bateman is the best one left on the board.
26. CLEVELAND BROWNS
Azeez Ojulari, Linebacker, Georgia
(6-3, 240 pounds, 2020: 31 tackles, 12.5 for a loss, 9.5 sacks, two passes defended, one fumble recovery)
The Browns need a linebacker and an edge rusher and Ojulari can do both.
27. BALTIMORE RAVENS
Joseph Ossai, Linebacker, Texas
(6-4, 253 pounds, 2020: nine games, 55 tackles, 15.5 for a loss, 5.5 sacks, two passes defended, one fumble recovery, three forced fumbles)
Baltimore lost Mathew Judon in free agency and need to grab his replacement here.
28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Caleb Farley, Cornerback, Virginia Tech
(6-2, 207 pounds, 2020: Did Not Play)
With the top defensive lineman gone, the Saints add to their defensive backfield in a division that features some of the best passing teams in the league.
29. GREEN BAY PACKERS
Terrance Marshall Jr,, Wide Receiver, LSU
(6-3, 200 pounds, 2020: 48 catches, 731 yards, 10 touchdowns)
There’s no more excuses. The Packers need to invest in a wideout to replace all the Subway Sandwich artists they try to play alongside DeVante Adams.
30. BUFFALO BILLS
Greg Newsome II, Cornerback, Northwestern
(6-1, 190 pounds, 2020: three games, 12 tackles, one interception, seven passes defended)
The Bills have their offense together, it’s the defense that has to catch up if they want to make their contest with Kansas City an annual AFC title affair.
31. BALTIMORE RAVENS (from the Kansas City Chiefs)
Elijah Moore, Wide Receiver, Ole Miss
(5-9, 185 pounds, 2020: 86 catches, 1,193 yards, eight touchdowns)
The Ravens trade back into the first round to take a wide receiver to waste in the worst passing offense in the league.
32. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Kyle Trask, Quarterback, Florida
(6-5, 240 pounds, 2020: 68.9 completion percentage, 4,283 yards, 43 touchdowns, eight interceptions, three rushing touchdowns)
I’m dying on this hill. To me, Trask is the third best QB in the draft. The Bucs need to think about the future past Tom Brady and will not see a prospect like this in their sites next season, regardless of where they pick (probably, at worst, in the late 20s). Trask won’t be there in the second round and they need to secure his fifth year option anyway. This is just smart drafting.
No team loses its spot due to missing a pick -2500
Over 1.5 trades in the Top 10 picks +150
Allen Robinson will not be traded during round one -450
Jimmy Garoppolo will not be traded during round one -300
Najee Harris is the first running back taken -200
Trevon Moehrig-Woodard is the first safety taken -600
Houston’s first pick will be defense -120
Mr. Irrelevant will play defense -120
Ian Book drafted over 209.5 -140
Jamie Newman taken under 170.5 -115
Jamin Davis taken over 26.5 -140
Rams first pick will be defense -110
Seahawks first pick will be offense -130
Davis Mills selected over 60.5 -120
Kellen Mond taken over 72.5 -150
Najee Harris taken over 25.5 -120
Trevon Moehrig-Woodard taken over 27.5 +120
Travis Etienne taken over 32.5 +110
Tyson Campbell taken under 49.5 -135
Zaven Collins taken over 24.5 -130
Travis Etienne drafted first over Javonte Williams -225
Devonta Smith drafted over Jaylen Waddle -250
Davis Mills drafted over Kellm Mond -250
Under 5.5 Alabama players drafted in the first round +160
Over 6.5 Big 10 players selected in the first round +100
Over 12.5 SEC players taken in the first round +150
Over 4.5 cornerbacks drafted in the first round -160
Under 6.5 offensive lineman drafted in the first round -110
Over 5.5 quarterbacks taken in the first round +300
Under 0.5 running backs taken in the first round +275
Under 0.5 safeties taken in the first round +185
Over 18.5 offensive players taken in the first round -150
Under13.5 defensive players taken in the first round -130
Over 4.5 wide receivers taken in the first round -350