NFL Over/Under Win Totals Preview: AFC East

Now that we’ve done a quick ‘macro’ preview of all eight NFL divisions we’ll go back and get into more of the ‘micro’. Although we had a few Over/Under win totals betting positions in the aforementioned previews we’re going to go through and preview each team individually. We’ll focus specifically on the NFL win total odds and highlight the positions that appear to be the strongest. We’ll start with the AFC East and go division by division:

AFC EAST–NFL WIN TOTALS PREVIEWS

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: In theory, the Patriots could be down a bit this year for some technical reasons as well as some intrinsic personnel factors. The technical reason? The dreaded ‘Super Bowl letdown’ factor which is a large part of why there hasn’t been a back to back champion since the Pats did it in 2004 and 2005. Before that, you have to go back to the 1997 and 1998 Denver Broncos. There’s also a belief that Super Bowl teams also struggle during the regular season in the subsequent year but that might be more myth than reality. Dating back to the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, the past 18 Super Bowl winners have averaged 10.5 wins the following season. Only one (the 2003 Tampa Bay Bucs) followed up the Super Bowl win with a losing season and only two finished 8-8 in the following year. By some metrics, the Pats have the easiest overall schedule this year. Since 2001, New England has never won fewer than 9 games in a season and have averaged 11.6 wins per year. Sure, Tom Brady is older now and there are questions about who he’ll throw to now that Rob Gronkowski has retired but the Patriots have dealt with similar issues just about every year. Patriots have won 12 or more games 8 of the last 9 seasons and there’s every reason to think that they’ll take advantage of that easy schedule.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS OVER 11.5 WINS +120

BUFFALO BILLS: Bills look to be the most improved team in the division and should be back over .500 after a 6-10 season last year. Sean McDermott is already one of the most underrated coaches in the NFL and he was smart enough to add Ken Dorsey to the staff as quarterbacks coach which will only help Josh Allen. Bills picked up Cole Beasley in the off season giving Allen a big play wide receiver. The Bills’ linebackers are nasty with Matt Milano and Tremaine Edwards. Combined with a good draft that landed among others defensive tackle Ed Oliver out of Houston who is an absolute beast at 6’2″ 287 with ridiculous athleticism Buffalo could have the most improved defense in the league.

BUFFALO BILLS OVER 7.5 WINS +120 (BEST BET)

MIAMI DOLPHINS: Brian Flores is definitely an upgrade at head coach and Miami was able to keep Xavien Howard. In the meantime, they cleaned up much of the roster by getting rid of high priced underachievers like Ryan Tannehill. Dolphins aren’t even in rebuild mode yet–they’re in gut the team and clean up the mess and THEN rebuild mode. The first part of this should take the entire season and will hopefully net the Dolphins a high draft pick. At least they’ve got a couple of capable veteran quarterbacks in Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen or Miami could be a historically awful team. As it stands now, they’ll just be really bad.

MIAMI DOLPHINS UNDER 4.5 WINS +110 (BEST BET)

NEW YORK JETS: I’m not particularly enthusiastic about the Jets and definitely not a fan of new head coach Adam Gase. He’s expected to develop Sam Darnold into a legit franchise quarterback. Jets’ defense got a huge boost with the selection of defensive tackle Quinnen Williams out of Alabama. Le’Veon Bell who should give New York some immediate help on offense as will wide receiver Jamison Crowder. Jets first team offense looked good in their first preseason game and that was without Le’Veon Bell who was held out for precautionary reasons. Still not bullish on the Jets but they could do better than I’m anticipating.

NEW YORK JETS UNDER 7.5 WINS +100

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