NFL Over/Under Win Totals Preview: AFC South

There is expected to be a good deal of upheaval in the AFC South, at least based on the NFL win totals for the division. The Houston Texans won the division with a record of 11-5 but there’s a prevailing opinion that they could slip this year. On the other hand, there’s a lot of support for the Indianapolis Colts to improve dramatically this season:

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: There is some growing concern about Andrew Luck’s lingering calf strain but even so the tone around the Colts is guardedly optimistic. He hasn’t participated in training camp yet but the expectation is that he could be in for a big year after missing the entire 2017 season with a shoulder injury. He looked very good last season and although there’s a bit of paranoia about his calf no one around the team is pushing the panic button yet. There’s a school of thought that the Colts are going to be extra cautious with Luck and that Jacoby Brissett will start.

Luck’s status notwithstanding, everything around the Colts is looking good. The team had a very strong draft this year with one of the most significant draftees being wide receiver Parris Campbell who along with T.Y. Hilton and tight end Eric Ebron gives Luck a trio of dependable targets. The defense was good last year and improved with the addition of All Pro linebacker Justin Houston. Assuming that Luck’s injury isn’t serious the Colts are the rightful favorite to win the division.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS OVER 10 WINS +105

HOUSTON TEXANS: The expectation is that Houston will look more like the team that opened the year 0-3 last season and less like the team that won 9 straight and 10 of 11. The biggest issue facing Houston was a porous offensive line that put the health of quarterback Deshaun Watson at perpetual risk and it’s unclear if they’ve done much to improve despite making it their focus in the draft. The defense regressed with the loss of cornerback Tyrann Mathieu and could regress even more if Jadeveon Clowney misses action due to his contract holdout. The team won a lot of close games last year and had a +13 turnover differential. There’s a good chance they could see a ‘regression to the mean’ in these areas. Bill O’Brien has a lot to like as a coach but is a poor clock/game manager.

HOUSTON TEXANS UNDER 8 WINS -110

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: Big improvements for the Jags over last season thanks to the signing of quarterback Nick Foles who should be a huge upgrade on now departed Blake Bortles. Foles is a much better game manager than Bortles and significantly better at taking care of the football. Jacksonville’s defense is still nasty and finished last season #5 in total defense and #4 in scoring defense. With a better quarterback capable of sustaining drives and giving them a break now and then they could get even better. Jacksonville ranked #31 in scoring offense last year and it’s tough to see them not improving upon that number. If they show enough improvement they could be one of the surprise teams of the season.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS OVER 7.5 WINS -125 (BEST BET)

TENNESSEE TITANS: The Titans are a tough team to get a handle on. Jake Mariotta is in a contract year and needs to show some consistency. Ryan Tannehill was acquired as a backup and is experienced but never showed much consistency in Miami. Tennessee’s defense is underrated and they improved the wide receiving corps in the offseason. If Mariotta stays healthy and head coach Mike Vrabel grows in his role they could show some significant improvement. If not, they could nosedive. Team could go either way and the O/U 7.5 looks about right. Ultimately, this looks like a .500 team which means a slight lean to the ‘Over’.

TENNESSEE TITANS OVER 7.5 WINS -120

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