It’s going to be an interesting year for rookie running backs in the NFL. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the first running back off the board and many expect him to be among the Rookie of the Year finalists, but guys like D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers and even Ke’Shawn Vaughn are expected to have impacts on the 2020 season. BetOnline has posted props on three of the backs, so let’s take a closer look at how they’ll do this upcoming season.
CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
OVER-UNDER: 950 RUSHING YARDS
The fact that Edwards-Helaire will be playing with Patrick Mahomes will certainly put the LSU star in a position to succeed. He will get his share of rushing yards. However, 950 in a rookie season is asking a lot, especially since the Chiefs have so many other weapons and so many other mouths to feed in their offense. Everyone will get the ball, so Edwards-Helaire is going to have to be patient within the offense. The other key point to make here, however, is that Edwards-Helaire is a good receiver out of the backfield. The Chiefs are going to use him as a passing target either in the screen game or as a third or fourth option on third downs. Edwards-Helaire is going to get a good chunk of yardage as a pass catcher, not just as a runner. He might get 1,000 total yards from scrimmage, but 950 yards solely on the ground might be asking for too much.
D’ANDRE SWIFT, DETROIT LIONS
OVER-UNDER: 625 RUSHING YARDS
The ability of D’Andre Swift is considerable. The Detroit Lions have struggled to find a reliable running game for a long time. One could argue that they have been searching for a franchise running back ever since the iconic Barry Sanders retired. The Swift pick was a good one, but now the Lions have to figure out how to distribute the ball within their offense. A basic reality Swift and the Lions both have to contend with is that Kerryon Johnson is one of their main options at running back. The Lions have Swift on the roster to fill in for Johnson. The real question a lot of people will try to figure out is what the balance of carries will be between Swift and Johnson. There isn’t a guaranteed or certain answer, but it is likely that Johnson, having had some experience, will probably get a few more carries than Swift. This should put a limit on what Swift can achieve to begin with. Then add the fact that Detroit’s offensive line is not one of the better units in the league. Swift will probably finish under the number.
JONATHAN TAYLOR, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
OVER-UNDER: 550 RUSHING YARDS
The talent of Marlon Mack in the Colts’ backfield is going to limit Taylor’s rookie-season touches, much as a two-back reality should also limit touches for D’Andre Swift as the rookie for the Lions. Taylor should get some work as a receiver out of the backfield, but in terms of getting carries, he will probably play second fiddle to Marlon Mack. That will keep his yardage total down. However, at 550 yards, that figure might still be reachable. Taylor probably has the best odds of the three running backs on this list of going over his total.
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