TAKING STOCK: ATLANTA FALCONS

BY ADAM GREENE

As for someone who has no emotional attachment to the Atlanta Falcons, but did think they’d actually be competitive a year ago, 2022 was a real disappointment. The NFC South was there for the taking and not a single team, even the Tom Brady led Tampa Bay Buccaneers, seemed to want it. No club in the South finished with a winning record, but all four were in the hunt for the division title right down to the wire. Which, to be real, was just kind of sad.

So why did I think the Falcons would do something? I liked the signing of Marcus Mariota at quarterback and thought he’d play well in Arthur Smith’s offense. I was very wrong and before the season was over, Mariota hit the bench and rookie Desmond Ridder took over under center.

Bright spots? Rookie fifth round pick Tyler Allgeier had a terrific season. He started only seven games, but played in 16 and rushed for 1,035 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Drake London had a solid rookie season too, catching 72 passes for 866 yards and four scores. And Ridder, in four starts, didn’t light up the stat sheet, but he also didn’t toss an interception. Cordarrelle Patterson continues to be one of the most dangerous weapons in the game and proves over and over again he’s the best kick returner in the history of the NFL.

ATLANTA FALCONS

2022-23 Record: 7-10

Playoffs: N/A

2023 Super Bowl Odds: +6600

2023 NFC Championship Odds: +2800

2023 NFC West Odds: +240

NOW WHAT?

For some reason head coach Arthur Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot must really believe that team owner Arthur Blank won’t fire them, because they didn’t do much to solidify the quarterback position on their team this season. Rolling with a QB room of Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke, Logan Woodside and Feleipe Franks is a risk to say the least. I’m a firm believer that the Washington Commanders have made their QB decisions specifically with the hopes of tanking the season for the No. 1 overall pick and Caleb Williams. I have no clue what the Falcons are doing. They aren’t bad enough to land the top pick. Hell, this team won seven games a season ago, but there’s a real chance, unless Ridder turns into an NFL QB, that they won’t match that total. In four starts last season, Ridder averaged 177 yards passing per game and was sacked nine times. Will he be better this season? Maybe, but you know who I would have much rather seen suit up for Atlanta? How about Lamar Jackson, who was dangled out for a trade for most of the offseason? It could be that Smith, if he does keep this job, is thinking he’ll bring in Ryan Tannehill next year after his old club, the Tennessee Titans, cut him loose.

The Falcons got lucky with their schedule, but anyone looking at that Week 1 match up against the Carolina Panthers and assuming it’s a win is in for a long afternoon. Green Bay in Week 2 is winnable, but the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars in consecutive games could lead to a 1-3 start. It gets significantly easier after that. They play just one team after that Jags match up that finished with a winning record in 2022, the Minnesota Vikings on Nov. 5. There could be nine wins here if Ridder can protect the ball, show something as a passer and they get the season they hope from their rookie first round pick Bijan Robinson.

THE DRAFT

For most teams thinking playoffs as a possibility, you don’t talk about rookies this much, but Robinson has a lot on his shoulders in his first season. He’s an early favorite to land the Offensive Rookie of the Year award at the end and won’t have to carry the load all the time because Allgeier is still on the team, for now at least. I gave them a B in my draft grades, as they did address their offensive line with second round pick Matthew Bergeron and added some help on defense in the third and fourth, taking Zach Harrison out of Ohio State and the underrated Clark Phillips III from Utah.

FREE AGENCY

If Ridder does faceplant, there are worse guys to take over at quarterback than Heinicke. He’s a quality back up that has won games in the NFL and even started playoff games. Atlanta really focused on its defense in free agency, nabbing Jesse Bates III and Tre Flowers from the Cincinnati Bengals and David Onyemata and Kaden Elliss from their rivals, the New Orleans Saints. Calias Campbell joins the team from the Baltimore Ravens. Mike Hughes from the Lions, Bud Dupree from the Titans, Scotty Miller from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tae Davis from the Cleveland Browns, Joe Gaziano from the Los Angeles Chargers and Breon Borders from the Chicago Bears all add either fresh starters or depth to the defense. On offense, in addition to Heinicke, they brought in Penny Hart from the Seattle Seahawks, Mack Hollins from the Las Vegas Raiders and Ethan Greenidge from the Saints.

NFC SOUTH

To be such a bad division, the NFC South was shockingly competitive last season. This year, I don’t expect the same, though the Panthers could surprise some people. Looking at the South, and what the teams in it did this offseason, it appears to be a two team race between the Falcons and the Saints, with the winner getting the opportunity to get blown out in the Wild Card round by the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions or Dallas Cowboys. So, they have that to look forward to.

Last year eight wins took the title. This year, I think it’ll take at least nine, but only one of these squads is making the playoffs. My money is on New Orleans, but Atlanta, if Ridder can show anything, could reach that above .500 mark and take it.

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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