TAKING STOCK: BUFFALO BILLS

BY ADAM GREENE

As the clock hit 00:00 in the Buffalo Bills’ AFC Championship loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, they had one goal in mind for the offseason; get better than Kansas City. While the Chiefs would go on to lose the Super Bowl, thanks to their depleted offensive line, for the Bills, the key to their 2021-22 campaign has not changed.

They must close the gap between them and the Chiefs or they will spend the next five years as runners up.

This kind of thing, for many organizations and coaching staffs, is hard to grasp in the NFL for whatever reason. But when teams do recognize it, say with the San Francisco 49ers of the early 1990s or the Green Bay Packers of the mid 1990s, Super Bowl titles usually follow. The Bills of that same era never could. They never did the extra moves and roster changes needed to get over the hump that the NFC represented to them.

This Bills squad will not make that same mistake, with McDermott saying right after the confetti dropped for KC in the AFC title game, that the distance between his squad and the Chiefs must be closed.

“There is still a gap in terms of where we are and where they are. It’s not just one answer that solves that problem,” McDermott said after the game. “We all have to, starting with me, we all have to continue asking ourselves the hard questions of the what-ifs and the whys and the hows. We as a staff have to get better and improve, we have to improve our roster, we have to improve our operation and what we do.”

So let’s see what that looks like.

In the Taking Stock series, we’re looking at each playoff team, going from worst to first, and outlining exactly what they must do to avoid being one of the five or so franchises who miss the postseason the year after making it.

BUFFALO BILLS

2020-21 Record: 13-3, AFC East Champion

Playoffs: Defeated the Indianapolis Colts 27-24 in the AFC Wild Card Round, Defeated the Baltimore Ravens 17-3 in the AFC Divisional Round, Lost 38-24 to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship

2021-22 AFC Championship Odds: +650

Previously: New Orleans Saints, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, Chicago Bears, Washington Football Team

NO NEW DEAL FOR THE QUARTERBACK

It’s been a recurring segment here, among the 2020-21 playoff teams, to touch on their insolvent quarterback situations. Whether it be retirements now, retirements coming, trades, cuts and free agent acquisitions, only the Bills, Ravens and Browns, so far, needed to make no move to bring in a new quarterback.

What none of them can do, even Buffalo, is give their young quarterback a new deal. Not yet.

Josh Allen is entering his fourth year after a break out season where he completed 69.2 percent his passes for 4,544 yards, 37 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Not only was it an elite year on paper, but if you watched Buffalo at all, it looked like they have their own generational superstar. A guy to rival Patrick Mahomes in the AFC with the magical feats he can pull off.

But you can’t count on it. Not just yet.

Buffalo need look no further than their own backup quarterback, newly signed former No. 2 overall pick Mitchell Trubisky, as to why. As a first round pick, the Bills have a fifth-year option for Allen and they should use it. Let it play out, at least for this season. If Allen can perform at the exact same level in 2021-22 as he did last season, go ahead and start negotiating a contract. If you can’t get it done, let him play on that fifth year option and then start using the franchise tag.

How much do you think the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles wish they’d done the same after their first round QBs had “break out” years? How happy are the Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers that they didn’t fall into the “extension after the third season” trap with Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston?

If you look at the class before Allen’s; Trubisky, Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, two teams struck gold, talent wise, and did the extensions before the fourth season. And one of those, the Houston Texans, is still struggling to get their guy on the field after a public feud all offseason and, now, some off the field legal problems that could cost him games if he does suit up for the Texans again. I’m betting they wish they’d waited too.

So, Buffalo, appreciate and recognize what you have. But also remember how this has worked out, and messed up, so many other teams and just let it play out naturally. I would much rather pay Allen $40 million a season starting in 2022 when I know he’s worth it than I would $35 million a year now and have to eat that contract in two years with a trade or cut.

FREE AGENCY

Buffalo has spent most of free agency getting a push, signing guys that look pretty much like the players they lost to other teams. They got luck that, this season, none of their key players were set to hit the streets, so for the most part, the Bills have been pretty quiet. I expect that will change after the draft.

Regardless, they need to keep their focus on athleticism and speed.

NFL DRAFT

Picking this late, the smart move is always best player available and luckily enough, Buffalo should have some real quality drop to them after so many QBs (as many as five) could be taken early in the first round. They know they need to add speed, both on offense and defense and there could be some there, like Rashod Bateman out of Minnesota at Wide Receiver or Joseph Ossai out of Texas at linebacker. Both are 4.4 guys and, for a linebacker, that’s kind of outrageous.

They could also look at an edge rusher like Gregory Rousseau from Miami or a defensive tackle like Daviyon Nixon from Iowa.

AFC EAST

The Bills don’t have a cakewalk back to the playoffs, but this is a division they can still dominate. The Miami Dolphins should be better and could cause some headaches, but they are easily two-to-three seasons behind Buffalo. The New York Jets are in a total rebuild and the New England Patriots remain a mystery.

2021-22 Projected Record: 13-4, AFC East Champions

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