TAKING STOCK: CINCINNATI BENGALS

BY ADAM GREENE

I have written this multiple times and it remains true — the Cincinnati Bengals are the Buffalo Bills you’ve been looking for. As all of NFL media and punditry (along with the Bills organization coming into last year) seem convinced that the Bills are the true AFC rivals to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Cincinnati Bengals have actually been that rival on the field. Quarterback Joe Burrow is one of only two quarterbacks on the planet to have kept Patrick Mahomes from winning every Super Bowl played over the last five years and the other guy is first ballot Pro Football Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady. And Brady just retired. For real. We all hope.

Cincinnati proved in 2022 that their 2021 Super Bowl campaign was no fluke. They repeated as AFC North champions and cruised through the playoffs, beating the Baltimore Ravens by a touchdown in the Wild Card Round, destroying the favorite Bills in Buffalo by three scores and nearly repeating as AFC Champions, losing by a last second field goal to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship.  

Joe Burrow, in just his second full season at quarterback, completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 4,475 yards, 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Joe Mixon led the team rushing, averaging 3.9 yards per carry and gaining 814 yards and scoring seven TDs. He caught 60 passes for 441 yards and two scores. J’Marr Chase continues to blow up the NFL’s early career stat record sheets (along with his former LSU teammate Justin Jefferson), by catching 87 passes for 1,046 yards and nine touchdowns. The defense was led by Trey Hendrickson, who recorded 32 tackles and eight sacks. Sam Hubbard had 60 tackles and 6.5 sacks.

Bright spots outside of the playoff run? The Bengals came into the season with a little bit of a Super Bowl hangover and started 0-2. They were 5-4 entering their bye week on Nov. 13 and did not lose again until the AFC title game. That included a 27-24 win over the Chiefs in Cincinnati in the regular season. They were also up 7-3 on the Bills on Jan. 2 before the game was called after Damar Hamlin suffered a heart issue on the field.

That Bills game came with some issues and while the NFL was correct to cancel it, especially that late after both teams had their bye, the Bengals got the short end of the stick in the compromise that came after. There was a chance they could have lost the AFC North by a coinflip if they’d dropped their season finale against the Ravens. More than that, Cincinnati was right to feel they could have beaten Buffalo in that game and, if they had, their playoff matchup with the Bills would have been at home and not in Buffalo’s icy hellscape. It all worked out for the Bengals, but that was a raw deal.

CINCINNATI BENGALS

2022-23 Record: 12-4

Playoffs: Lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in in the AFC Championship Game

2023 Super Bowl Odds: +850

2023 AFC Championship Odds: +525

2023 AFC North Odds: +115

NOW WHAT?

There’s an old coaching trope that no team stays the same, they either get better or they get worse. I’m not sure it’s true, but the Bengals will have to find a way to replace the defensive production of Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates III at safety. Both mean co-led the team with four interceptions a year ago and finished third (Bell) and fourth (Bates) in tackles on the team. Safeties are undervalued in the modern NFL, but they’ll need two players to perform at least somewhere near that level. This is already a team with a lot of pressure on the offense, but that’s nothing new to any of the top teams in the league.

Dax Hill, their 2022 first round draft pick out of Michigan, played in 15 games and started two, recording 16 tackles. While they might like what they have in Hill, it’s safe to say he’s not gotten the chance to show the rest of us just yet.

The biggest concerns for the Bengals are off the field, and a big reason they let both Bates and Bell walk in free agency. Joe Burrow is due, what many rightly expect, the richest quarterback contract in history this season and he’ll get it. Next year, they’ll have to pay J’Marr Chase. Now, the good news for Cincinnati is that Burrow has made it clear he wants Chase to stay, so he’ll be willing to do some contract work of his own to make that happen. But he’ll still earn serious bank, no matter how the accountants spread it out.  

THE DRAFT

As I mentioned in all my draft grade pieces, the objective of every NFL Draft is to get starting caliber players in Rounds 1-3 and then try to steal starters and role players with the rest of the draft. Thanks to Myles Murphy, edge rusher out of Clemson, falling right into their laps in the first round, the Bengals opened strong, then added cornerback DJ Turner from Michigan in Round 2 and Jordan Battle, safety out of Alabama in Round 3. Those moves, and the rest of their haul, earned them a B+ in my draft grades. Battle has a shot to take over one of the starting safety spots immediately and Turner will likely be used as their No.3 corner right out of the gate.

FREE AGENCY

Cincy didn’t wait for the draft to address the hole in their defensive backfield (though they filled it pretty good on draft day), adding safety Nick Scott from the Los Angeles Rams to their defense. He’ll be joined by Sidney Jones from the Las Vegas Raiders at corner. Most of the free agent moves made by the Bengals added to their offense, with the biggest being the acquisition of Orlando Brown, Jr. at left tackle from the Kansas City Chiefs. Irv Smith comes over at tight end from the Minnesota Vikings, and Cody Ford at guard from the Arizona Cardinals. Trevor Siemian, a capable reserve QB who’s made multiple NFL starts, will max out his Fruit Ninja score on his Microsoft Surface backing up Burrow.

AFC NORTH

People can talk up the AFC East all they want, but I feel that the AFC North will be the toughest division in the NFL this upcoming season. Two of these teams made the playoffs last year and all of them have made the postseason over the last three. And all of these teams will likely be better in 2023. Cincinnati remains the favorite for good reason, but the new-look Baltimore Ravens will be a tough out and these franchises will beat each other up along the way, opening up another home field advantage opportunity for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who have not played a road playoff game in five seasons.

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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