Week 10 NFL MVP Top 10

Be sure to check out our analysis of last week as well as this week before placing a bet.

10. JIMMY GAROPPOLO +1600 (LAST WEEK 10)

Though Jimmy G’s numbers aren’t impressive, we said he deserves some attention in case the 49ers go 16-0 or have some other record-breaking performances as a team. He finally did have a huge game against Arizona, throwing for 317 yards and four touchdowns. That performance against Arizona, one of the best matchups a quarterback could ask for, moved Garoppolo from +3300 to +1600. We think it’s fool’s gold. He could have another big performance against Seattle this weekend (Matt Schaub and Jameis Winston both did) and then he gets Arizona again. We don’t think he’ll sustain this level of production.

9. DAK PRESCOTT +3300 (LAST WEEK 9)

Dak had something of an underwhelming performance this week considering what he did to the Giants in Week 1. Still, he threw three touchdown passes for the first time since Week 2. Though Prescott isn’t really in the MVP discussion right now, he’s a decent longshot play considering the odds.

8. LAMAR JACKSON +350 (LAST WEEK 8)

Jackson had perhaps his best performance of the season in leading the Ravens to four offensive touchdowns for the first time since Week 3. He doesn’t move up the rankings because his odds jumped from +900 to +350. Though Jackson’s MVP candidacy has ramped up in the last few weeks, the Ravens are averaging 2.3 offensive touchdowns in their last three games–16th in the league over that stretch. All of the players ahead of him on this list are higher with the exception of Mahomes, whose team was playing without him and still managed to tie Baltimore’s offensive output. He’s an electric player but not as deserving of MVP as the odds indicate.

7. DREW BREES +2500 (LAST WEEK 6)

Brees was off this week and our assessment is unchanged. With a few golden matchups coming up (Atlanta twice, Tampa) he could easily put himself into the MVP picture. If he does, you’ll wish you bought him at +2500.

6. CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY +600 (LAST WEEK 5)

It’s going to be hard for Brees to win considering how much time he missed. But in the two games he started and finished, he averaged 371.5 yards and threw five touchdown passes. After the bye, three of his next four games include Atlanta (twice) and Tampa Bay. Chances are he puts up awesome numbers in those games too. If you think Brees can keep up this pace, now is the time to bet on him.

5. AARON RODGERS +600 (LAST WEEK 7)

Rodgers jumps two spots after a terrible game because the odds are finally a bit better. We were never sold on betting Rodgers as the favorite, but he’s a solid bet at +600. The tough late-season schedule remains a problem, though. 

4. RUSSELL WILSON +225 (LAST WEEK 4)

After a five-touchdown game against Tampa, Wilson has thrown 22 touchdown passes to one interception. Mahomes and Brady are the only other quarterbacks on this list averaging more yards per game. He also has three rushing touchdowns and is the best player on a 7-2 team. Wilson is the favorite for a reason and we won’t fault anyone for betting on him. He’s ranked fourth because of the odds, but it’s possible these are the best we’ll get since Wilson typically gets better as the season goes along.

3. TOM BRADY +2000 (LAST WEEK 1)

Getting outdueled by Lamar Jackson and falling from the ranks of the undefeated moves Brady out of our top spot. He’s still having a great season considering he’s second in the NFL in passing yards even though the Patriots have been protecting leads most of the season. He’s not getting much MVP buzz, but the résumé and odds are enticing.

2. DESHAUN WATSON +350 (LAST WEEK 2)

We hope you bought last week when Watson was +1000. He’s practically a magician at this point as he makes a case to be the best dual-threat quarterback in the league. He could arguably have odds similar to Russell Wilson, which is why we have him ranked second. 

1. PATRICK MAHOMES +1200 (LAST WEEK 3)

Mahomes is practicing fully. A big game against Tennessee this week and he’s right back in the MVP conversation. As such, his odds will be much worse. If you believe in Mahomes, now is the time to buy.

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