Week 6 Biggest NFL Spread Moves
A smart bettor knows to monitor line movements as the week goes along. Often when the bet is made is nearly as important as who the bet is on. Here are Week 6’s biggest spread moves and the likely reasons for said moves.
HOUSTON TEXANS (+4) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Opening: Houston Texans (+8) at Kansas City Chiefs
These opening lines were released way back on October 2, before these teams saw relative reversals of fortune in Week 5. You’ll no doubt recall Houston dominating Atlanta behind a huge game from Deshaun Watson and Kansas City losing to the Colts as 10.5-point home favorites. As such, you could get Texans +5 as early as Monday night. Don’t be surprised if late money comes in on the Chiefs, especially if Tyreek Hill is active.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-3.5) @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Opening: Washington Redskins (-6) @ Miami Dolphins
Both of these teams are so bad that it’s difficult to imagine either of them being favored. Unsurprisingly, bettors are hammering the underdog Dolphins. It makes some level of sense. The Redskins haven’t looked that much more competent than Miami and they’re playing on the road. The Redskins are, in all likelihood, playing for a lame-duck coach for the rest of the season. Taking the points is the right approach.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (PK) @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Opening: Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) @ Cleveland Browns
Unlike the first two, this game’s spread has been more of a roller coaster. You could get Seahawks -1.5 as late as Friday night, but it’s settled at a pick ‘em for now.
The initial surge to Seahawks -1.5 came from Week 5 performances. The Seahawks had a big win on national TV against the Rams. The Browns had a big loss on national TV against the 49ers. Everyone saw those games and adjusted their opinions of these teams accordingly. Plus, the Seahawks should have an advantage since they had 10 days to prepare compared to Cleveland’s six.
What brought the odds to a pick ‘em was likely Seattle’s injuries. Left tackle Duane Brown is doubtful. He’ll be replaced by George Fant, who made 10 starts at left tackle in 2016 and entered 2017 as Seattle’s starter before tearing an ACL in the preseason. Right guard D.J. Fluker is also doubtful, meaning Jamarco Jones should get his first career start.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+11) @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Opening: Cincinnati Bengals (+9) @ Baltimore Ravens
If you’re keeping up with our ATS Power Rankings, you know that the Ravens haven’t covered since Week 1. That isn’t deterring Baltimore bettors, who had the Ravens favored by as much as 12 throughout the week. Though the Ravens are significantly more talented than the Bengals, this series has typically been close. In Baltimore’s last 15 home games against Cincinnati, they’ve won one game by 11 or more.
There are still several things working against the Bengals, particularly their health. A.J. Green’s season debut will wait at least another week. The same goes for Cordy Glenn. Carlos Dunlap and Andre Smith are also out.
The Ravens also have a few statistical advantages. They’re ranked first in points per game while the Bengals are ranked 27th in points allowed. In addition, their second-ranked rushing attack will face Cincinnati’s 31st-ranked rush defense.
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