Week 7 NFL MVP Futures

Be sure to check out our analysis of last week as well as this week before placing a bet.

THANKS BUT NO THANKS

CARSON WENTZ +2000

Wentz picked up his second 300-yard game of the season playing from behind against Minnesota. His numbers are poor in key areas (completion percentage, yards per attempt) and he plays for a 3-2 team that counts Washington and Luke Falk’s Jets among their victories. Next up on the schedule: Dallas, Buffalo, Chicago, New England and Seattle. 

AARON RODGERS +900

Rodgers’ value is worse every week. He was +1200 last week and now he’s tied for the fourth-best odds. The Packers picked up a controversial win and Rodgers’ numbers were fine, not great. His name is Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are winning games, so we can’t discount the possibility he wins. At the moment, the odds aren’t nearly good enough.

JIMMY GAROPPOLO +1200

Garoppolo made the dark horse list last week at +2500.  He was interesting at those odds, but not anymore. Being the quarterback of an undefeated team helps, but it can only get you so far. He’s 22nd in the league in yards per game (232.6) and he’s thrown seven touchdowns and five interceptions.

DARK HORSES

LAMAR JACKSON +1800

The Ravens are 4-2 and Jackson is on pace to set the quarterback rushing record. The problem is he’s been aided by an easy schedule and he’s had a couple of ugly performances. We didn’t like him at +1000 two weeks ago, but +1800 now is a defensible dark horse pick.

DAK PRESCOTT +2800

From a pure numbers perspective, Prescott belongs in the top five. We had him there last week even though he had worse odds (+2000). The knock on him is his team. Dallas looks lost and the award won’t go to the quarterback of a team that doesn’t at least make the playoffs. The case could be made that this is the perfect time to buy Dak for MVP stock, but it’s difficult to pull the trigger when you watch the Cowboys.

TOP FIVE

5. CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY +900

McCaffrey’s quest to break Chris Johnsons’ all-purpose yards record took a hit in London. But the Panthers won again and McCaffrey had some highlight-reel plays. His odds are a bit more attractive this week, so he sneaks into the top five.

4. DESHAUN WATSON +800

Houston’s win over Kansas City has them looking like one of the best teams in the AFC. Watson has a high statistical ceiling every week, so it’s not hard to imagine him winning the award. If it weren’t for a couple of bad performances, he might be the favorite.

3. RUSSELL WILSON +200

As the odds indicate, if the season ended today Wilson would be the favorite to be the MVP. He still hasn’t thrown an interception and he’s thrown the second-most touchdowns in the league. At 5-1, the Seahawks are one of several teams in contention for the NFC’s top seed. If that happens and Wilson keeps this up, he’d be a shoo-in.

2. TOM BRADY +1200

Brady and Garoppolo have the same odds for some reason. Rodgers shouldn’t have better odds than Brady, either. Brady has the same thing going for him as they do (a top tier team) but his numbers are better. He did fall out of our top spot, but that had more to do with our top bet’s odds. Brady is a great bet in his own right.
 
1. PATRICK MAHOMES +250

The Chiefs lost two in a row and Mahomes was hobbled by an ankle injury. Those setbacks may have helped him, at least for our purposes. He still had moments of dominance and the Chiefs are a good bet to be the AFC’s top seed. Now that Mahomes is no longer the favorite, he’s the best bet.

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