Week 8 NFL MVP Futures

Be sure to check out our analysis of last week as well as this week before placing a bet.

THANKS BUT NO THANKS

LAMAR JACKSON +900

Media hype is a powerful thing. Join us, if you will, on a journey way back to July when Mitchell Trubisky and Baker Mayfield were the two most popular MVP bets. Now the media wants you to buy Lamar Jackson.

Look, Jackson was probably the single most important player in the Ravens’ 30-16 win over Seattle. He rushed for 116 yards and his improvisational skills were incredible. He also completed 45 percent of his passes and led the Ravens to one touchdown and three field goals. Without two defensive touchdowns, it’s possible Jackson would be closer to the +1800 odds he had last week when we considered him a dark horse. At +900, he’s a stay-
away.

AARON RODGERS +300

The good news is Rodgers finally had an MVP-caliber game. The bad news is he’s now considered the co-favorite to win. Rodgers’ numbers are finally in the upper echelon of quarterbacks, but that was all thanks to one game. There are other players on our list with similar credentials and more attractive odds.

DARK HORSES

JACOBY BRISSETT +3300

Brissett’s numbers aren’t great as far as yards go, but he’s fourth in the league with 14 passing touchdowns. He also already had his bye, unlike the three quarterbacks ahead of him (Patrick Mahomes, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson) who are tied with 15 apiece. Mahomes and Ryan are hurt, so there’s a legit chance Brissett leads the league in touchdowns. Plus, the Colts are 4-2 and look like a threat in the AFC.

DAK PRESCOTT +3300

The Cowboys put an end to their losing streak, but Prescott’s numbers took a dive. That also means his odds went from +2800 to +3300. If you believe a Prescott hot streak is around the corner, these are great odds.

TOP FIVE

5. DESHAUN WATSON +600

Watson falls a spot because he had a less than stellar game and the Texans lost but his odds went from +800 to +600. He’s still a touchdown machine and a legitimate threat to win, but the value decreased when it shouldn’t have.

4. CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY +800

McCaffrey went from +900 to +800 without playing this week. He’s no longer on pace to break Chris Johnson’s single-season record for all-purpose yards, but the Bucs were the only team to slow him down this season. They’re not on the schedule anymore, so McCaffrey ought to pick up where he left off before Carolina’s trip to London.

3. RUSSELL WILSON +300

Wilson wasn’t good against the Ravens. The pick-six he threw to Marcus Peters was his worst throw of the season and one of his worst decisions in recent memory. He still has arguably the best numbers of any quarterback and plays for a 5-2 team. He could have a monster game this week against the Falcons, who have allowed 17 passing touchdowns but have just two interceptions. Only the Cardinals (17 touchdowns, one interception) are worse.
 
2. PATRICK MAHOMES +800

Obviously there is a ton of risk if you want to bet on Mahomes. His dislocated kneecap could keep him out for three games. The good news is he’s already practicing on a limited basis. It would be crazy for the Chiefs to rush him back so quickly, but now missing just one or two games seems like a possibility. If that happens, you’ll wish you bet him at +800 when you had the chance.

1. TOM BRADY +1200

Brady has similar numbers to Aaron Rodgers. They weren’t comparable until Rodgers had a big game last week and Brady is leading an undefeated team. Still, Rodgers is +300 and Brady is +1200.
Continue to take advantage of the disrespect going Brady’s way. Maybe he’s also just one big game away from jumping to +300.

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