WHAT WE LEARNED: NFL CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND

BY ADAM GREENE

WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT FIELD GOALS

I’m going to confess something; I don’t listen to sports talk radio. That sports podcast your friends keep recommending to you? Not only have I never heard of it, there’s no chance in hell I’ll ever listen to it.

Still, I can guess what the subject on said shows and podcasts have been all day Monday without so much as a preset button push; field goals. Specifically that the Buffalo Bills settled for too many and the Green Bay Packers all but surrendered the game by kicking their final field goal against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

I’m figuring the callers and hosts of these programs had plenty to say about the field goal philosophies on display Sunday and some exchanges got heated. Heads were called for and such. But we’re going to talk about the big one.

And I’m saying this; No, the Packers didn’t lost because of their late field goal.

First off, let’s talk about the field goal in question. Green Bay got the ball with 4:42 left after the Buccaneers had stretched their lead to 31-23 after a field goal of their own. I’m not math expert, but my calculator tells me that’s eight points.

It was a solid cushion for the Bucs, one that would take both a touchdown and successful two-point conversion to tie. That’s important to note.

So Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay, for the first time in the fourth quarter, actually put a drive together, getting a first and goal at the TB eight yard-line with 2:22 to go. They call three straight passes and all three are incomplete, bringing up a fourth down with eight to go. With 2:05 left on the clock and all three time outs, head coach Matt LaFleur sent out the field goal unit and will be roasted for it until the sun burns out.

On NFL.com, there’s literally a column titled “What was Matt LaFleur thinking?”

The analytics guys weighed in, saying that by kicking the field goal LaFleur dropped his team’s chances of winning from 10.8 percent to 7.8 percent.

But here’s the thing. That 10.8 percent is before the play is called and, even then, you’ve got an 89.2 percent chance of losing according to those same analytics. You complete the play for a TD, those numbers go up, obviously. You get the two-point conversion, they go up even more, but with around two minutes left on the clock and Tampa Bay in possession of the ball, the Packers still don’t even hit 50 percent. My guess is they’d be around 40 percent at best. Probably more like 32 percent or something, but I’m not an analytics guy. You have to be into math and I try to do as little of that as possible in my daily life.

Let’s talk real-world here. The Buccaneers defense had closed up everything that LaFleur had called in the red zone at that point. They had three cracks at it. You’d think that LaFleur had called money plays there and each one failed. In fact, on the third down it looked like Rodgers could have taken off and scored himself, or gotten considerably closer before he tossed the ball incomplete to Devante Adams. There was no rush. The clock was on his side and, at worst, they’d probably had a fourth with three or four yards to go. Significantly better odds than fourth and eight.

But, regardless, let’s say they stayed on the field and got the touchdown and then the two-point conversion. The game would be tied, but the defense would have still had to stop Brady and the Bucs, which, of course, they didn’t (and we’ll talk more about that too).

Even the analytics guys say that the chances of completing the touchdown, let alone the two-point conversion, was 20.6 percent. The analytics guys in the article want to fudge those numbers because of Rodgers, and that makes sense if you don’t factor in that Rodgers had blown it on three straight tries and before this drive had gone three-and-out after bad Tom Brady interceptions twice (and you better believe we’ll talk about that too).

Rodgers is great and a first ballot Hall of Famer. Rodgers was not great Sunday. If you go for it on fourth down and don’t get it, not only are you in danger of allowing Tampa Bay to just run out the clock on their ensuing possession, you’re still in need of a TD and a two to tie the game. All with significantly less time on the clock.

So here, to answer NFL.com’s question, is what Matt LaFleur was thinking.

He was thinking that, when they were just down five and had been given not one, but two gifts straight from the heavens above, they’d blown it with three-and-outs. The first drive ended with a  saclthat an offensive line just could not give up. Shaq Barrett beat Billy Turner so bad on that third and five that Dustin Poirer had to surrender his UFC belt to him on the spot.

LaFleur was thinking that his defense had held the Buccaneers to just three points in the entire second half. We’re not counting the fumble that gave Tampa the ball on the eight. They’d forced three awful Brady interceptions. Picks that should have all been turned into points and, if they had gotten at least field goals then, the Pack would have been kicking for the lead at that moment with two minutes to go.

He was thinking that the odds of getting three would shrink the Buccaneers’ lead back down to five, which would mean that a Green Bay touchdown, after a defensive stand, would win the game outright. They had the clock stoppage at the two minute warning and all three of their time outs to get it done.

And, here’s the thing. He almost pulled it off. A “controversial” pass interference call on a third and four allowed Tampa Bay to run out the clock and win the game. It was a call the refs had neglected to make all day, but for some reason at that moment with what was, at best, a ticky-tack foul, the stripes just couldn’t keep the flag in their pocket.

If Tampa Bay punts there, the Pack has the ball with 1:30 or so left with probably 90-ish yards to go.

But here’s your twist ending; No, the Packers did not lose because of the late PI flag.

They lost because they wasted two straight interceptions from Brady on three-and-outs. And Rodgers and LaFleur both share the blame for that. Rodgers looked deep too often and missed twice on both drives when he should have been focusing on moving the chains. LaFleur blew it by calling plays that left his weak offensive tackles exposed to a team that had pressured Rodgers not only all day, but all throughout their previous game even with David Bakhtiari on the field.

If LaFleur leaves a back in the backfield to block on that first third and five, the Packers probably win this game. If Rodgers doesn’t try to hit the home run to Devante Adams on the first drive or Marquez Valdez-Scantling on the second and just finds Robert Tonyan, who was uncoverable all day, the Packers probably win this game. Those two Green Bay three and outs are why they’ll be watching the Super Bowl on their BarcaLoungers and all the complaining about field goals and flags aren’t going to change that.

BRADY AND THE BUCCANEERS MAKE A LITTLE HISTORY

Before we wrap up here, we need to note that this will be the 10^th time in his 21 seasons that Tom Brady will play in the Super Bowl. And, frankly, two of those don’t count because he was a back up his first year in the league and missed 2008 with a knee injury. So that’s 10 of 19 if you’re keeping track. It’s unreal.

And we can talk about all the controversies, Spygate and whatever (and trust me, I’ve written tons about it), but what this stretch proves is that none of that ever mattered even if it happened. Brady is in a class by himself. He’s the best team sport athlete of all time and, frankly, Michael Jordan can’t even compete. Jordan and Brady may have both won six titles, but Brady is now playing in the Super Bowl for the 10^th time. At 43.

He’s also shut any “Bill Belichick is the reason the Pats won” or that he was a “system QB” talk down for good. Belichick could very likely be ringless if not for Brady and this year makes a better argument for that than anything I could write.

Lastly, Brady has done what only two players in all of NFL history did before him; he’s taken two different teams to the Super Bowl. The others were, of course, Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning. And that is the ultimate accomplishment. Because it proves that you’re the guy, you’re the reason the team made it. You are the system.

Win or lose two Sundays from now, it’s seems almost inconceivable that any other QB will ever match what Brady has done. There’s probably only one that even could and he just so happens to be the man Brady’s lining up against in the Super Bowl wearing No. 15.

He just has eight more to go.

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