Who Will Win NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year?

After the NFL Draft, in which the first seven players taken were all offensive players, it is clear that the battle for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year is going to be fierce and fun. Let’s look at the top candidates on the board, noting that not one of these players is a wide receiver. You can look at Jaylen Waddle of the Miami Dolphins or Kyle Pitts of the Atlanta Falcons, in addition to these six candidates below, and find real value. For now, let’s look at the top six candidates:

Trevor Lawrence +350

The Jacksonville Jaguars won just one game last season, so there is nowhere to go but up for this team. If Trevor Lawrence, the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft, is able to come relatively close to living up to the hype which has surrounded him, he will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Few would dispute that point. However, is he in a good position to do precisely that? Many will have their doubts. For one thing, Urban Meyer has zero NFL head coaching experience. Maybe Meyer will become a good NFL coach, but his first season is bound to be a learning experience, and a generally bumpy ride. Lawrence is not being guided by a brilliant NFL coach. He is being guided by a brilliant college coach who is trying to figure out the NFL on the fly. That, plus a suspect Jaguar offensive line, does not bode well for Lawrence’s first NFL season.

Trey Lance +550

The big question in San Francisco is if coach Kyle Shanahan is going to hand the reins of the offense directly to Lance, or if Jimmy Garoppolo will play this season. Right now, the expectation should be that Jimmy G will start the season. If he gets hurt, as he did last year, of course Lance would step in. However, if Garoppolo stays healthy, the 49ers have a Super Bowl-caliber roster, and replacing their starting quarterback with a rookie would seem to get in the way of San Francisco’s aspirations. A big season from Lance is unlikely, if only because we don’t know if Lance will get meaningful playing time this year.

Justin Fields +650

This is the best Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate. The Chicago Bears have had a terrible and tortured history at the quarterback spot. Justin Fields just has to be good, not great, to improve the Bears and give them optimism for the future. Fields can probably rise to the top of the list without being spectacular. Just being competent would look really good to Bears fans and other NFL observers. This is the favorite, and a great value at the listed price.

Mac Jones +750

The problem surrounding Mac Jones is similar to the one involving Trey Lance in San Francisco. Jones will not start in Week 1. Cam Newton will for the New England Patriots, barring an injury. Jones might get some playing time at some point in the season, but he is not likely to start a majority of his team’s games. It’s hard to be Offensive Rookie of the Year that way.

Zach Wilson +1000

The New York Jets, much like Trevor Lawrence’s Jaguars, are starting over at quarterback and at head coach. Year 1 for a quarterback under a first-year NFL head coach, on a team which was really bad the year before, simply doesn’t add up to a likely rookie of the year scenario.

Najee Harris +1100

The Alabama star goes to the Pittsburgh Steelers, where he should be very productive but might not make dazzling plays the way receiver Chase Claypool is likely to do for Ben Roethlisberger. Harris could have a solid rookie season, but will it be splashy enough to rise to the very top of all rookies who play offense in the NFL? It will be a hard standard to reach for Harris.