Handicapping the Electoral College: Western Edition

The west coast of the United States has swung heavily left over the last three decades. California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii haven’t voted for a Republican president since the 1980s, and it’s highly unlikely they change course in 2020. The political betting odds reflect that reality nearly six months before Election Day, but are these odds where they should be? Probably not, so there is some great value if you’re willing to wait until November.

ODDS TO WIN CALIFORNIA

REPUBLICAN +1600

DEMOCRAT -3300

There is no real path to victory for Donald Trump or Republicans in the Golden State. Democrats have won over 60 percent of the vote in each of the last three presidential elections, and Hillary Clinton beat Trump by over 30 points in California in 2016. Trump is very unpopular in California. Moderates disapproved of him by a margin of 70 percent to 30 percent in a statewide poll in January, and many Republicans in the state opted to vote third party rather than support him in the last presidential election.

Joe Biden might not be popular among the more left-leaning voters in California, but many in the state see him as a lesser of two evils. California’s Republican base has evaporated since the end of the Ronald Reagan era, and the gap is only widening between Democrats and Republicans. It’s only a three percent return, but the real odds for Democrats to win California should be north of -5000.

ODDS TO WIN OREGON

REPUBLICAN +900

DEMOCRAT -1200

Oregon hasn’t voted for a Republican in the presidential election since 1984, but unlike California, there have been times where a Republican has nearly won the state. George W. Bush almost defeated Al Gore in the 2000 Presidential Election, losing by a half-percent, and Bush stayed within 4.2 percent of John Kerry in 2004.

However, there has been a dynamic shift in the state over the last decade-plus. Tens of thousands of liberal-minded voters have flocked to Portland, and this is no longer a potential swing state. Trump failed to even win 40 percent of the vote here in 2016, and a Democrat has won Oregon by at least 11 points in each of the last three elections. With that in mind, this is fantastic value as any Democrat would be very hard pressed to lose Oregon.

ODDS TO WIN WASHINGTON

REPUBLICAN +900

DEMOCRAT -1200

A similar trend has occurred in Washington. This state has seen a steady increase in population since statehood, and the state has progressively moved to the left. While Bush lost by 5.6 points in 2000 and 7.2 points in 2004, the last three presidential elections have been much more lopsided. Barack Obama won the state by more than 15 points in 2008 and 2012, and Hillary Clinton kept that trend going in 2016.

This is the best value on the board. It would take so much to flip Washington red, that Trump’s true odds to win Washington are more like 100 to 1. Half the state lives in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metropolitan area, and this part of the state is very blue.

ODDS TO WIN ALASKA

REPUBLICAN -700

DEMOCRAT +525

Alaska has only voted for a Democrat one time. That came in 1964 when Barry Goldwater was trounced by Lyndon B. Johnson in one of the most lopsided presidential elections in United States history. In 2012, Barack Obama won 40 percent of the vote in the state, but he was the only Democrat to achieve that feat in the last two decades.

Over the last five elections, Republicans have won Alaska by an average of 21.3 percent. The only reason this line is so low is because Zogby polls showed that Biden was only down by five points to Trump last summer. Those polls always seem to favor prospective candidates though as respondents tend to know only the positive details of their careers.

ODDS TO WIN HAWAII

REPUBLICAN +1600

DEMOCRAT -3300

Surprisingly, Hawaii has voted Republican twice in its history. However, this is the safest state for Democrats nowadays as Republicans have been smashed here the last three elections. Native son Barack Obama won Hawaii by more than 40 points during his two terms in office, and Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by over 30 points in 2016.

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