2021 Fourth of July Hot Dog Eating Contest

There is little doubt that Joey Chestnut will retain his Mustard Yellow Belt on July 4. Chestnut has been the best competitive eater in the world for the last 14 years, and he has bested all comers at the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest 13 times in that stretch. He has continually broken his own world records on the Fourth of July, so there is no betting on the winner of the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. However, there are all sorts of props regarding the totals for Joey Chestnut and other competitors at this year’s event.

2021 Fourth of July Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds

How Many Hot Dogs Will Joey Chestnut Eat?
Over 73.5 -140
Under 73.5 +100

We saw Joey Chestnut take things to another level after suffering a stunning loss to Matt Stonie in 2015. In each of the last five July 4th Hot Dog Eating Contests, Chestnut has eaten at least 70 hot dogs. He set a new world record with 75 hot dogs and buns eaten in 2020, as he continues to test the boundaries of the stomach.

However, one must ask the question of how long he can keep going at this pace with no clear challenger. He nearly doubled every individual in the field’s total last year, and it’s highly unlikely anyone challenges him this year. That makes the ‘Under’ a shrewd play considering the circumstances.

How Many Hot Dogs Will Joey Chestnut Eat in the First Minute?
Over 11 -140
Under 11 +100

Along those same lines, the ‘Under’ is the right pick for this prop too. Everyone at the Hot Dog Eating Contest starts strong and tails off at the end, and Chestnut usually eats 10-12 hot dogs in the first 60 seconds. He might have a harder time than usual this time around though since he doesn’t have to worry about another contestant pushing him.

How Many Hot Dogs Will Matt Stonie Eat?
Over 44.5 -120
Under 44.5 -120

Matt Stonie didn’t compete in 2020 due to COVID concerns, but he is back at the 2021 Hot Dog Eating Contest. Some people are billing Stonie as Joey Chestnut’s biggest threat, yet that seems unlikely considering what we have seen from him in recent years.

Stonie bested Chestnut in 2015 by eating 62 hot dogs. He has had diminishing returns since that point though. He ate 53 hot dogs in 2016, 48 hot dogs in 2017, and 40 hot dogs in 2018 before recovering somewhat and eating 46 hot dogs in 2019. Stonie has not been as active as he was in the past, so the ‘Under’ is probably the right wager with him too.

What Will Be Said First During Men’s 10 Minute Competition?
GOAT -140
Kobayashi +100

Takeru Kobayashi’s falling out with Major League Eating has been well-documented, and it’s clear that the organization no longer wants to promote him in any way. For his part, Kobayashi seems unlikely to pull off any sort of publicity stunt that would lead to either George Shea or the announcers mentioning his name, so it’s highly unlikely that the first well-known competitive eater will be mentioned. It’s much more likely to hear the announcers or Shea call Joey Chestnut the GOAT due to his dominance, and this line should reflect that fact.

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