After Falling Short At Australian Open, Nadal Heavy Favorite At 2020 French Open

Novak Djokovic won the 2020 Australian Open to preserve the Big 3’s dominance over men’s major tournaments. No player outside the trio of Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer has won a men’s major championship since Stan Wawrinka at the 2016 U.S. Open. As we shift our attention to the next grand slam of the year, the French Open, the question is will anyone challenge them? The French Open odds have opened with Nadal as the favorite as he’s expected to add to his 12 titles.

THE FAVORITE: RAFAEL NADAL
ODDS: -120

The man who has won 12 French Open titles is the obvious favorite. Nadal winning in Paris in June is the most dependable reality in sports over the past 15 years. In two of the three years in which Nadal has not won the French Open since 2005, he was injured. As long as he is healthy, he is the most trusted tennis player in the world when playing at Stade Roland Garros. Djokovic will have a legitimate chance of beating him as he nearly beat a healthy Nadal in the 2013 French Open semifinals. He certainly has the skills and the toughness to beat Nadal. Yet, when these two players have met in a Roland Garros final, Nadal has won every time. Djokovic’s only win over Nadal in Paris was in the 2015 quarterfinals, when Nadal was still making his way back from physical problems suffered months earlier. Nadal still has to be given the benefit of the doubt.

NOVAK DJOKOVIC AND DOMINIC THIEM: +300

The next two best options in France are the men who played in the semifinals last year and have met in three of the last four French Opens. Thiem has a 2-1 record over Djokovic, but Djokovic was not healthy when losing to Thiem in 2017. Last year, the semifinal match between the two was played in a violent windstorm offering very irregular conditions. If Djokovic and Thiem both play in the semifinals while Nadal plays Roger Federer or someone else in the other semifinal, it will be hard for the Djokovic-Thiem winner to have enough stamina to beat Nadal in the final. However, if Djokovic and Thiem do not meet in the semis, Djokovic would thereby have an easier semifinal and could be fresh for Nadal in the final.

ANDY MURRAY: +1600

This makes very little sense. Murray did not play in the Australian Open and will face a long period of work and training just to be able to win two or three matches at a major. Winning seven in Paris is just about impossible right now. Murray should not be anywhere close to the list of top betting choices.

ROGER FEDERER AND STEFANOS TSITSIPAS: +1800

The Federer 2019 season was marked by a return to clay after not playing at all on the surface in 2017 and 2018. Federer made the French Open semifinals, but he was crushed by Nadal in straight sets. Federer needs to be in Djokovic’s half of the draw, opposite Rafa, and get the benefit of someone else knocking off Djokovic. Tsitsipas plays well on clay and could be dangerous, but getting past Thiem, Djokovic, or Rafa in the final rounds will be very hard.

ALEXANDER ZVEREV: +2000

The German made his first major semifinal at the 2020 Australian Open, a great start to his season. If Zverev plays confidently in Paris and can avoid Nadal in the quarterfinals or semifinals, he could make a deep run.

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