Bernie Sanders is an Enormous Favorite to Win the Nevada Caucuses

Progressive firebrand Bernie Sanders is the odds-on favorite to win the Democratic Party’s nomination for the 2020 US Presidential Election, and he is now a massive favorite to win the Silver State on Saturday. He has been the frontrunner to win the nomination for over a month, and the rest of the candidates are fully aware that the distinguished senator from Vermont is in an enviable position. A win in Nevada could lead to Sanders snowballing his advantage heading into Super Tuesday in a couple weeks.

WHICH CANDIDATE WILL WIN THE NEVADA CAUCUSES?

BERNIE SANDERS -2500
JOE BIDEN +1400
PETE BUTTIGIEG +2000
ELIZABETH WARREN +3300
TOM STEYER +3300
AMY KLOBUCHAR +5000

Sanders had a strong debate performance on Wednesday night, and he is in great shape in Nevada. FiveThirtyEight gives Sanders a 73 percent chance to win the Nevada Caucuses as of Friday morning, and there are certain factors working in his favor. The early voting numbers have been huge in Nevada, with many of those indicating that they support Sanders, and this state’s demographics favor him too. Sanders is far more popular among minority voters than his counterparts, so that should help him win convincingly on Saturday.

However, the current political betting odds for Sanders are not worth taking. Sanders was 13 points ahead of the pack in the most recent poll from Emerson College, but they aren’t many great polls in Nevada, and we’ve already seen issues with caucuses this election. That cost Sanders dearly in Iowa, so it’s hard to swallow this much chalk with that in mind.

Former Vice President Joe Biden had arguably his best debate performance yet on Wednesday, but it might be too little, too late for the former frontrunner. Biden’s support has fallen for the last month, and he has yet to stop his freefall. He was polling at 28.5 percent in the state on January 7, but he is polling at just 15.3 percent as of February 21, and it’s hard to imagine him reversing his fortunes in one day.

There is a bit of value on Pete Buttigieg to win Nevada at 20-1 though. Buttigieg has fared well in the first two presidential primaries, and he has emerged as the frontrunner to challenge Bernie among the centrists. He is having trouble with fundraising, but he is young and charismatic, and that goes a long way in elections. As a relative newcomer, he is more acceptable than some other candidates still in the race, and he could benefit greatly from the caucuses as a second or third choice.

The most value lies in Elizabeth Warren after the strongest debate of any candidate yet this cycle. Warren was on the attack from the outset, and her critiques of Mike Bloomberg and others really resonated with the crowd and on social media. She was the star of Wednesday night’s debate, and if you had any doubt that she had the best performance, her campaign had a record day of fundraising immediately following the debate. Her campaign raised $2.8 million on Wednesday night, and the once discounted candidate is very undervalued at 33-1.

Bloomberg is the billionaire that everyone is piling on at the moment, but Tom Steyer is the only billionaire on the ballot in Nevada. Steyer continues to spend a vast amount of money, yet he has not had much of an impact on the race. He has made in-roads in Nevada though, and he should post his best numbers to date. A poll released on Monday by Point Blank Political shows Steyer ahead in the state, and while that’s likely not going to come to fruition, it underscores that Steyer has significant support.

Amy Klobuchar continues to hang around and make things interesting. She surpassed Steyer in the most recent poll released in the state, and she was nipping at the heels of Warren according to the latest numbers. However, Klobuchar has little support among minority voters, and forgetting the name of Mexico’s president did nothing to improve her reputation among Latinx voters in Nevada. Klobuchar is continuing to build momentum, but this is not her big breakthrough.

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