Can Thiem Win Back-To-Back Years At Indian Wells?

It isn’t the first major tournament of the year, but the ATP Tour stop at Indian Wells in Southern California is the first Masters 1000 tournament of the tennis season. It is sometimes referred to as the fifth major because it is the largest and most lucrative main-tour event outside of the four major championships played in Australia, France, Wimbledon, and the United States. The 96-player, seven-round event – with 32 byes for seeded players – begins in a week and a half. Let’s look at the field and see what is likely to happen:

TOURNAMENT: BNP PARIBAS OPEN
CATEGORY: ATP TOUR MASTERS 1000
DATE: MARCH 12-22, 2020
LOCATION: INDIAN WELLS TENNIS GARDEN – INDIAN WELLS, CALIFORNIA

LAST 5 CHAMPIONS

2019: DOMINIC THIEM
2018: JUAN MARTIN DEL POTRO
2017: ROGER FEDERER
2016: NOVAK DJOKOVIC
2015: NOVAK DJOKOVIC

THE FAVORITE

This is a situation in which the old and familiar logic is the best logic: Novak Djokovic is the best bet. He’s 18-0 in the 2020 tennis season, which is quite dominant, even if he’s played a number of close matches so far this season. Djokovic wins the points he absolutely has to win, gets out of trouble and finds a way. We saw that at the Dubai Tennis Championships last week where Djokovic nearly lost in the semifinals. He dropped the first set to Gael Monfils, then had to survive a second-set tiebreaker (10-8) to even it up and then he won the third set 6-1.

Could someone beat him at Indian Wells? Sure, it is realistic and possible. Moreover, Djokovic is going to lose at some point this year. Long winning streaks (25-30-35 matches) generally do not happen in tennis. Sometimes, yes, but not with great frequency. You could make the case that Djokovic is ready to lose. Yet, when a player keeps coming through time and time again, it is hard to say that other opponents are in good position against him. Djokovic is the gold standard, and until someone shows he can be beaten in 2020, why would anyone want to pick someone else to win this tournament?

THE DARK HORSE

The past few weeks have witnessed some quality tennis by Stefanos Tsitsipas and Gael Monfils, among others. Tsitsipas and Monfils have both won indoor hardcourt titles in Europe and both made deep runs in Dubai, with Monfils making the semifinals and Tsitsipas losing to Djokovic in the final this past Saturday. They are both realistic dark horse contenders, but meanwhile, someone else has been looming in the background: Daniil Medvedev.

He hasn’t had a very strong 2020 season to this point, but he was the best hardcourt player on tour for a three-month period from August through October of 2019. He is a high-level hardcourt player, arguably the best hardcourt player other than the Big 3 of Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer. Medvedev knows this is a huge tournament for him, since he generally doesn’t do all that well on clay in April and May. He has to bring the goods here, and he just might do it.

WHOM NOT TO TRUST

The fact that Dominic Thiem is defending his 2019 championship here, plus the fact that he seemed sick in a recent February tournament before losing to a much lower-ranked opponent, suggests that the 2020 Australian Open finalist won’t be at full steam in Indian Wells. Thiem knows this upcoming clay season is huge for him and his career, so he might not be especially sharp for this tournament.

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