Canadian 2019 Federal Election Preview

Justin Trudeau is in serious jeopardy of losing his position as prime minister of Canada. The photogenic Trudeau has been in a dead heat with Andrew Scheer in the polls, and past pictures of Trudeau could submarine his chances of winning a second term. Multiple pictures of Trudeau in “blackface” have made the rounds on social media, leading to a public apology from the prime minister. He is now an underdog per the political betting odds to Scheer for the 2019 Federal Election to be held on October 21, 2019.

ODDS TO WIN THE 2019 CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTION

ANDREW SCHEER -125
JUSTIN TRUDEAU +100
JAGMEET SINGH +1200
ELIZABETH MAY +3300
MAXIME BERNIER +3300

Scheer is the leader of the Conservative Party, and he has been Trudeau’s main counterweight in Canadian politics since 2017. He was elected to Parliament in 2004, representing the Regina-Qu’Appelle district. He became the youngest Speaker of the House in the history of Canadian politics in 2011, and he was also the first Speaker to come from a Saskatchewan district.

Interestingly, Scheer became the head of the Conservative Party despite a somewhat dismal performance during the 2015 federal election. He cruised to victories by winning a majority of the vote in his district in 2008 and 2011, but he only won a plurality of votes during the last general election. Scheer only won 44.7 percent of the vote as Della Anaquod made a strong challenge as a Liberal Party candidate.

Still, the Conservative Party has been polling well nationally, and Scheer is currently a slight favorite per the Canadian politics betting odds to win in 2019. Scheer and the Conservatives pulled ahead of Trudeau and the Liberal Party in national voting in late February, and although the race has tightened considerably since then, the Conservatives are still slightly ahead according to most polls.

Its important to keep in mind that every poll has had the Conservatives’ lead within the margin of error though. The CPC’s biggest lead over the LPC in the past week was a 2.2 percent edge in a Mainstreet Research poll on September 26, so while they are ahead, the lead is not statistically significant.

Trudeau seemed set to surpass Scheer in the polls before the “blackface” pictures emerged. That turned off some voters, and there is a growing concern over whether those voters will return home before the election three weeks from today.

There are some factors that point to Trudeau performing better than the polls suggest. The Canadian economy has been strong and stable under Trudeau’s watch, and he has the incumbency advantage. Incumbents have a major edge over challengers in any election, and name recognition is a big part of that.

Also, while the national polling has been pretty even, the layout of the districts seems to favor the Liberal Party. During the 2015 federal election, the Liberal Party won 54.4 percent of seats off of receiving 39.5 percent of the vote, and they could have another outsized performance. P.J. Fournier’s site 338 Canada aims to do what 538 has done for United States politics, and his model currently projects the Liberals to have a 67 percent chance of winning the most seats on October 21. However, that same site gives the Liberal Party only a 46.4 percent chance of winning a majority, meaning that Trudeau would be forced to form a coalition government.

Third parties in Canada have a better chance of winning seats than they do in the United States, but you can’t bet any of the longshots outside of possibly Jagmeet Singh. Singh is the head of the New Democratic Party, and the NDP caucuses with the Liberal Party. The NDP is currently polling at around 12 to 13 percent, but there is a small chance that Singh comes to be Prime Minister through the following scenario.

If the Liberal Party wins a plurality of seats, they will form a coalition government with the NDP. In the horse trading that occurs during these arrangements, Trudeau could step aside in favor of Singh if he is too controversial or unpopular of a figure. That would lead to Singh becoming PM, and it would be a huge win for the NDP.

At these odds, the play is Trudeau though. He should be a small favorite instead of even money due to the layout of Canadian constituencies.

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