Democratic Nominee for the 2020 US Presidential Election 10/21/19 Update

The fourth Democratic debate last week hammered home the fact that we now have a new frontrunner to win the Democratic Party’s nomination in 2020. Rather than attack former Vice President Joe Biden, it was Elizabeth Warren that was in the crosshairs of most candidates throughout Tuesday night. Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Buttigieg, and Amy Klobuchar all tried to score points by going after the Massachusetts senator, and Biden was mostly out of the spotlight. It appears that some of those shots did land according to the latest polling, so we could see other candidates follow that strategy in the coming weeks.



Elizabeth Warren surged ahead of Joe Biden in the odds to win the Democratic Party nomination last month, and she is still seen as the favorite to take on Donald Trump next November. Warren’s odds have dropped slightly after a middling debate performance where other candidates challenged her for her perceived evasiveness when it came to her proposed healthcare plan, but she has strong polling numbers and is the top candidate according to recent polls from both Quinnipiac University and YouGov.

Theoretically, Warren still has the most to gain too. Warren and Sanders largely draw from the same pool of voters, and it’s widely expected that the supporters of the two candidates will eventually rally around either Warren or Sanders. The two candidates enjoy a very cordial relationship, but Warren is seen as the stronger candidate and will likely end up being the preferred candidate of many current Sanders supporters.

Joe Biden’s odds are dropping like a rock. The former Vice President was the perceived frontrunner due to his association with Barack Obama and his name recognition, but he enjoys tepid support at best. There have been growing concerns about whether he can handle the grind of a presidential campaign, and he does not have policies or performances that have endeared him to the Democratic base. I fully expect him to be surpassed by another candidate before the Iowa caucuses.

Bernie Sanders was taken off the campaign trail for a couple weeks after suffering a heart attack, but he received some great news over the last week. Immediately after the Democratic debate on Tuesday, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, and other progressive members of Congress announced that they were endorsing Sanders. That has given his campaign a needed spark, and a massive rally with over 26,000 attendees in New York City this weekend showed that many people are still “Feeling the Bern”.

Sanders’ Democratic nomination odds of 8-1 could be worth betting at this price. If Warren stumbles or loses support, Sanders could see a dramatic uptick in the polls, and the Vermont senator is widely expected to win the New Hampshire primary.

There has been some great news for Pete Buttigieg’s campaign over the last few weeks. Buttigieg was seen as having a strong debate performance on Tuesday, and his campaign has attracted a significant amount of support from both donors and new voters. A USA Today poll released on Monday had Buttigieg in third place in Iowa, and his campaign raised more money than Biden last quarter. Buttigieg has surpassed Kamala Harris as the favored centrist aside from Biden , and he could surge in the polls over the next couple months.

Andrew Yang continues to hang around as a wildcard. He has received a lot of publicity for his Universal Basic Income proposal, and he has cobbled together an interesting bloc of voters. Yang has connected with traditionally right leaning voters and college students, presenting a unique option to people that don’t support any of the favorites. However, it’s hard to see a path for Yang to win the Democratic nomination as the philanthropist with no political experience would be a more likely option for Republicans that are exasperated with Donald Trump. I’d be stunned to see Yang ever garner more than 10 percent in any major poll.

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