Elizabeth Warren’s Campaign is Flailing, and the Massachusetts Senator Has Fallen Behind the Other Three Contenders in Iowa

Just a couple months ago, Elizabeth Warren’s campaign was in great shape. Warren was the frontrunner to win the Democratic nomination according to the political betting odds, and she was the star of the debate stage. However, her polling numbers have peaked, and her support is now trailing the other three Democratic frontrunners. The Massachusetts senator is seen as a relative longshot to win the Iowa Caucuses behind Pete Buttigieg, Joe Biden, and Bernie Sanders, and her odds to win the Democratic nomination have slid slowly over the last two months too.

WHO WILL WIN THE 2020 IOWA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUSES?

PETE BUTTIGIEG +110
BERNIE SANDERS +175
JOE BIDEN +300
ELIZABETH WARREN +700

At the beginning of November, Warren was leading the way in Iowa. She was ahead of her other three main competitors in polls from Siena College, Civiqs, Quinnipiac University, Public Policy Polling, and the University of Iowa.

Becoming the frontrunner is a double-edged sword though, and Warren was soon the focal point of many challengers’ attacks. She was portrayed as too far left of center and extremist, and some of those critiques have resonated in the minds of voters. Her support has fallen since the last presidential debate, and her support in the most recent poll from Emerson College is troubling. Only 12 percent of likely voters expressed support for Warren, placing her well behind Biden, Sanders, and Buttigieg. Amy Klobuchar is gaining on her too, and the Minnesota senator polled at 10 percent in that poll.

That has corresponded with a drop in her national numbers too. Warren is now +500 to win the Democratic Party nomination, as a national poll from Emerson College showed her support lagging considerably behind Biden and Sanders. While Biden polled at 32 percent, Sanders was at 25 percent, and Warren polled at 12 percent.

Emerson College has been more bearish on Warren than other polls, but she is still routinely behind both Biden and Sanders nationally. Warren is not leading in any of the early primary states, and Buttigieg’s surge in New Hampshire is bad for her. Sanders and Warren were seen as the two most likely candidates to win the Granite State as fellow New England residents, but Mayor Pete’s support has more than doubled over the last two months.

PETE BUTTIGIEG IS THE FAVORITE TO WIN IOWA

Buttigieg has always polled very well in comparison to his national averages in Iowa, and the South Bend Mayor is now close to an odds-on favorite to win the state’s caucuses on February 3. He has led in two of the last three major polls that have been released, and he is seen as a popular compromise pick. Some centrist democrats don’t want to vote for a candidate that is far too left like Warren and Sanders are perceived to be, and Biden is seen as unacceptable and bound to lose to Donald Trump in the eyes of many younger voters.

That has made Buttigieg a popular second option to many Democrats, and that bode wells for him in Iowa given that these are caucuses and not primaries. He doesn’t have a strong initial support base, but he is an acceptable candidate to many in the party, and that could lead to a surge of support nationally assuming he does win in Iowa.

Sanders has the most loyal supporters of any candidate in the Democratic Party, and that will make him a contender until the end. His base is the least likely to accept a compromise candidate, so they could win over voters supporting Warren and other undecided voters to win the caucus.

You might be tempted to bet on Biden at +300 given his polling numbers in the state, and that’s not a bad bet at this price. However, Biden has the most opposition of any of the major candidates, and voters are likely to cross over to other camps before joining the former Vice President and his supporters. Additionally, Biden doesn’t need a win in Iowa like other candidates do given his name recognition, and he is currently ahead in South Carolina and Nevada.

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