G2 ESPORTS ARE THE HEAVY FAVORITES TO WIN THEIR THIRD STRAIGHT LEC TITLE

Since acquiring Caps and Mikyx at the conclusion of the 2018 season, G2 Esports have been unstoppable. They have won the regular season in each of the last three splits, they won both LEC titles in 2019, and they won the Mid-Season Invitational and finished runner-up at the World Championships. That has made them the team to beat in Europe, and no one has been able to knock them from their perch yet. Fnatic came close last summer, taking G2 to a decisive fifth game twice in the playoffs, yet they couldn’t finish the job. G2 went a combined 4-0 against Fnatic and Origen in the 2020 LEC Spring Split, so they are odds-on favorites to win the Spring Split Playoffs.

FRIDAY, APRIL 3

G2 ESPORTS -1100

MAD LIONS +623

MAD Lions were one of the few teams to beat G2 Esports during the regular season. They were the last team to beat G2 back on February 22, thanks to excellent games from Humanoid and Carzzy. Humanoid was consistently able to poke and get picks with LeBlanc in the mid lane, while Carzzy’s Kalista turned the tide in the crucial team fight that swung the game in favor of the Lions.

There is a reason they are a massive underdog in this series though. G2 have far more talent on their team, and any one of their players can carry them to a victory. Perkz has much better all-around skills than Humanoid in the mid lane, and Wunder should get the better of Orome in the top lane provided he has a solid matchup.

The only place where the Lions might have an advantage is in the bottom lane with Carzzy and Kaiser, but G2 can counter that by swapping Perkz and Caps. That swap is somewhat expected at this point given Caps’ struggles to adapt to the bottom lane in the same way Perkz did last season, and that versatility is one of G2’s strengths. It’s tough to lay -1100, but G2 Esports -1.5 at -340 is a nice price.

SATURDAY, APRIL 4

FNATIC -170

ORIGEN +135

This series is expected to be relatively even. Fnatic and Origen are pretty close in terms of overall talent, but Fnatic must be given the edge given how they played over the last half of the Spring Split. The seven-time LEC champions went 8-2 to close out the regular season, and one of those losses was a meaningless defeat to Team Vitality after they were guaranteed to finish in second place.

In recent patches, Origen have had some issues in the draft phase. At the start of the Spring Split, they were one of the best drafting teams in Europe, but they haven’t been as dynamic in this area over the last couple patches. When opponents kept them from getting favored picks like Gragas, Karthus, Ornn, and Aphelios, their win rate dropped considerably.

Xerxe will be the key to the series. He has been one of the top junglers in Europe for a couple years now, and Origen is 8-0 when he has been able to take Gragas or Karthus this split. Fnatic are sure to have counters ready, and they could have other tricks up their sleeve as top laner Bwipo has a very deep champion pool.

SUNDAY, APRIL 5

MISFITS GAMING -145

ROGUE +115

Although this is the most evenly matched series according to the League of Legends betting odds, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was 3-0 one way or the other. Both teams stumbled across the finish line with Rogue losing their last four games and Misfits dropping four of their last five games, and problems were exposed with both teams.

Rogue is having major issues in the draft phase, and those problems are spilling over into other areas. They are having particular problems in the bottom lane as Hans Sama’s most success has come off an AD Carry that is not really an AD Carry in Senna.

Meanwhile, Misfits have simply hit the wall that everyone expected them too. Bvoy’s inability to play Miss Fortune in the bottom lane is a big problem given her prevalence, and Razork has completely fallen off after a strong start.

I believe that Rogue has more talent, so I will take them at this price, but live betting this series might be the best option given Rogue’s problems in pick and ban.

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