Joe Biden is Making His Stand in South Carolina

It’s looking like Joe Biden has stopped his slide. Biden’s national polling numbers have fell significantly over the last few months, but South Carolina appears to be the former Vice President’s firewall. Predictive models like FiveThirtyEight are giving Biden a 95 percent chance to win the Palmetto State, and that has led to the political betting odds changing substantially over the last few days.

WHO WILL WIN THE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY?

JOE BIDEN -1000
BERNIE SANDERS +500
AMY KLOBUCHAR +5000
ELIZABETH WARREN +5000
PETE BUTTIGIEG +5000
TOM STEYER +5000

At this time last week, it looked like Bernie Sanders would seriously challenge Biden in South Carolina. The Vermont senator was trailing Biden by 2.4 percent according to FiveThirtyEight’s model on February 21, but recently released polls are very favorable to Biden, leading to a major change in the predictive model.

A Monmouth University poll conducted from February 23 to February 25 found 36 percent support for Biden compared to 16 percent support for Sanders and 15 percent support for Tom Steyer. No other candidate received more than 10 percent of the vote. Biden’s lead was nearly as pronounced in an Emerson College poll released on Friday too. That poll found 41 percent of respondents supported Biden and 25 percent supported Sanders. Steyer and Pete Buttigieg were tied with the third-most support at 11 percent, making them relative non-factors.

Biden has been ahead in each of the last 12 polls, largely due to his popularity among black voters. His ties to Barack Obama have served him well in getting this important demographic to support his candidacy, and every other Democratic candidate has had trouble making in-roads in this community. While Sanders can boast more support among minorities than any other candidate, he is largely popular among Hispanic and Asian voters. He and every other candidate has had a difficult time earning support from black voters, and that makes winning in South Carolina a difficult proposition for anyone but Biden.

Most of the registered Democrats in South Carolina are black, so to win the primary here, you need to have strong support among black voters. Bernie Sanders was routed by Hillary Clinton here four years ago, with Clinton earning 73.4 percent of the vote, so it’s unlikely that Sanders wins the state. His campaign has done a good job of mobilizing younger voters, but its efforts to win more support among minorities in the state has fallen flat.

None of the longshots at 50-1 are real contenders to shock the punditry either. Steyer has made some in-roads among black voters, but his profile isn’t big enough to earn widespread support. Warren had another solid debate performance, but she isn’t polling well, and both Klobuchar and Buttigieg have failed to elicit any substantial support from minorities in the three previous states where Democratic Primaries have been contested.

At this price, Biden is a great bet to win South Carolina. His odds should be closer to -2000, as no other candidate has a realistic shot of making up so much ground in so little time. Sanders could outperform his polling numbers, but it still wouldn’t be enough for him to win the Palmetto State, so bet on Biden.

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