Keith Thurman Challenges Manny Pacquiao In Las Vegas

There have been so many incidents of an obviously over the hill fighter hanging on for way too long in boxing that it has become a cliche. The initial reaction to this matchup between Filipino boxing icon Manny Pacquiao and WBA Super World Welterweight Title holder Keith Thurman might be that it’s more of the same. That assessment will likely be proven incorrect. Pacquiao might be 40 years old but he is still a very capable fighter. Ironically, Thurman–despite being a decade younger than his opponent–is more of a question mark.

Most of the questions surrounding Thurman are based on a layoff of nearly two years due to multiple injuries/surgeries on his hand and elbow. Obviously, injuries of this type are serious business for a boxer but such a long layoff for the severity of Thurman’s ailments is uncommon. The timing was definitely problematic–Thurman took his hiatus off of the most impressive wins of his career. He won a unanimous decision over Shawn Porter in June 2016 and followed that up with a split decision victory over then-undefeated Danny Garcia. Making the layoff more of an issue is the reality that Thurman didn’t exactly take on a difficult workload before his 22 month break. He fought twice in 2015 against a pair of past their prime opponents (Luis Collazo and Robert Guerrero) and twice in 2014. His 2014 victory over Leonard Bundu was solid but his win over Julio Diaz was yet another once capable opponent with diminished skills.

Since Thurman’s return, he’s fought once–in January of this year he took a majority decision over capable pro Josesito Lopez. The Mexican journeyman was aggressive throughout and really rocked Thurman in the 7th round. Thurman managed to win what he described as a ‘tune up’ bout but his performance created more questions than it answered. Thurman might have more one punch stopping power than Pacquiao at this juncture but that’s really the only ‘given’. Questions about whether his skill level atrophied during this layoff along with more problematic questions about his heart, desire, toughness and will to win abound. There are many things that can be said about Pacquiao but no one has ever questioned his passion and commitment to boxing.

Pacquiao is no longer the knockout artist of his youth but he deserves more credit than he gets for going up in weight and successfully reinventing himself as a fighter. Since his 2009 TKO win over Miguel Cotto he’s only got one victory by stoppage (over Lucas Martín Matthysse who was a shell of his former self when they fought in July 2018) but has turned in very capable performances–win or lose–against mostly top notch opposition. That’s why we know what we’ll get out of Pacquiao in marked contrast to Thurman who simply might not be the same fighter he was before his layoff.

“Manny is so unbelievably fast. He’s 40 years old and moving around the ring with the same speed he had when he was just a seven-division world champion. Manny has Keith Thurman’s number. Thurman is slower than Heinz ketchup. Manny is going to beat him 57 ways on July 20. The fans know it, and the sports books know it.”

Those are the words of Pacquiao’s trainer, Freddie Roach. He might be somewhat hyperbolic in his assessment of Manny’s speed but he’s on the right track. He also alludes to the boxing odds on the fight which is helpful. There’s not much to suggest that Thurman has it in him to recapture the form he had in beating Danny Garcia and Shawn Porter. He’s got a capable trainer in Dan Birmingham and will likely come in with a decent game plan. His willingness to follow it and his ability to come up with a ‘Plan B’ if necessary are very much in doubt. Pacquaio had a couple of early career KO losses but since December 1999 he’s been stopped inside the distance once–by legit badass Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012. Thurman is no Marquez by a long shot. Pacquiao frustrates his younger foe en route to a unanimous decision win.

BET MANNY PACQUIAO +140 BY DECISION OVER KEITH THURMAN
BET MANNY PACQUIAO/KEITH THURMAN FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE -300

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