Who Will Be the Republican Nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election?

We’re a little more than a year away from the 2020 United States Presidential Election. While almost all the attention has been focused on the Democratic Primaries, there is growing concern that Donald Trump won’t be the Republican Party nominee next year. Teflon Don has not faced any real consequences for his transgressions just yet, but there are always so many trip wires surrounding him that it’s hard to feel very confident that he will certainly be the nominee.

ODDS ON REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FOR THE 2020 US ELECTION

DONALD TRUMP -800
NOT DONALD TRUMP +500

Every week there is a new scandal surrounding Trump. Missteps or unconscionable actions that would have sunk candidates in the past have bounced off this POTUS, but he has continued to survive. It would be exhausting to recount all the scandals his administration has endured over the last three years, yet while dozens of people involved his presidency have been forced out, Trump has remained.

The latest scandal might be the most damaging though. Trump’s alleged quid pro quo with regards to withholding funds from Ukraine in exchange for promises that the government there would investigate Hunter Biden has led to renewed calls to impeach the president. These calls have been the strongest yet, and a Democrat controlled House seems keen to at least bring articles of impeachment against Trump.

Of course, since the Republicans control the Senate, Trump would have to lose the support of his own party in order to be removed from office. That’s an unlikely prospect, and that’s the main reason why Trump’s odds to be the Republican nominee in 2020 are rather high. Mitch McConnell and the GOP have been excellent at circling the wagons and rallying around their own, and they won’t risk losing one of the three branches in such a pivotal election year.

Any other Republican nominee would have a much worse chance of winning the 2020 Election. Mike Pence does not have the gravitas of Trump, Mitt Romney has always been a lukewarm option for many in the GOP, and Nikki Haley won’t have the time to garner the name recognition she would need to be a viable candidate.

Nominating a candidate other than Trump would alienate a substantial proportion of Republican voters too. The GOP tried to push any other candidate to the forefront during the 2016 Presidential Election, but Trump’s base was incredibly persistent. He connected with a large chunk of voters in a way that other Republicans couldn’t, and any other candidate would be a significant underdog per the US Election betting odds.

You can certainly criticize McConnell for many of his policies and practices, but he has kept the Republican Party in line during his time as Senate Majority Leader. There is much less dissent in the GOP than there is among the Democrats, and McConnell is one of the few people that Trump knows he can’t cross. The two are virtually joined at the hip for the next year, so I think the best value is in Trump to remain the Republican nominee for next year’s election.

There are a few scenarios where someone other than Trump would be nominated though. The most likely path to another nominee would be by impeachment or further scandal. Trump isn’t the type to resign from office but given what we have discovered over the last three years there may eventually be a smoking gun that no one can ignore. Portions of his base may not turn on him, yet he could lose enough popular support among independents and middle of the road voters that the GOP would need to find another candidate.

A more macabre reason why Trump wouldn’t be the nominee is due to his health. While the POTUS has repeatedly claimed he is in fantastic shape, he is definitely overweight and he would be the oldest president ever if he were re-elected. Trump will be 74 years old in June, so there is always a possibility that health concerns would force the POTUS to not seek re-election.

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