Williams Favored To Win Women’s Australian Open Title, Osaka Second In Line

The draw has been released for the 2020 Australian Open and to no one’s surprise, Serena Williams is the favorite. However, she hasn’t won a grand slam since 2017, so is she a good bet in this spot? Let’s break down some parts of the bracket to provide a sense of which players are more – and less – likely to win the first major tournament of the year.

TOURNAMENT: AUSTRALIAN OPEN
CATEGORY: GRAND SLAM
DATE: JANUARY 20-FEBRUARY 2, 2020
LOCATION: MELBOURNE PARK – MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA

LAST 5 CHAMPIONS

2019: NAOMI OSAKA
2018: CAROLINE WOZNIACKI
2017: SERENA WILLIAMS
2016: ANGELIQUE KERBER
2015: SERENA WILLIAMS

THE FAVORITE

Although some people are surprised to see Williams favored, keep this in mind: she’s made the last two major finals while only one other women’s player has made each of the last two major semifinals: Elina Svitolina at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open last summer. Serena crushed Svitolina in the U.S. Open semifinals and appears to be healthy after a long offseason. The player who beat her in the 2019 U.S. Open final, Bianca Andreescu, is injured and will not play in this tournament, which means there is one especially big challenge for Serena in this tournament: Naomi Osaka, the defending Australian Open champion. Serena could play Osaka in the quarterfinals and this could be the match of the tournament. If Serena gets to that match and wins it, she would be the clear favorite in her semifinal match and, if she gets that far, in the championship match. It is true that Serena has lost her last four major finals – two in 2018 and two in 2019 – but she has done better than most of her peers at reaching major finals in the last two tennis seasons. That’s why she’s favored.

THE DARK HORSE

The half of the draw without Serena is wide open. There are a lot of players who have not yet won major championships among the top 12 seeds in the bottom half of the draw, opposite Serena in the top half. One of those players is Aryna Sabalenka. She just beat Simona Halep in a warm-up event for the Australian Open and has looked fluid and confident on the court. She has a lot of firepower and produced a solid second half of the 2019 season. On the year, she was 16-9 on the hard courts, in 2019 and was 32-11 on them in 2018. This is her best surface. She is gaining forward momentum which could carry her through the tournament, and since the top half has the tougher and more proven players, Sabalenka could make her way through the bottom half.

Belinda Bencic, Donna Vekic, and other players in Sabalenka’s quarter of the draw are very good but not particularly consistent. Sabalenka could power her way through the field and make a big run in Melbourne. Meanwhile, Bencic was a semifinalist at the U.S. Open but who knows if she has what it takes to actually seal the deal.

WHOM NOT TO TRUST

Simona Halep won Wimbledon last summer, but she didn’t follow that up with relentlessly consistent tennis. She will still be a factor in the 2020 women’s tennis season, but she won’t be a steady player throughout the whole year. At the Australian Open, her loss to Sabalenka in a tune-up event does not bode well for her. Other players who have been able to rest in the offseason might be able to hit her off the court. Halep typically gains momentum in the spring on clay and is good at winning battles of attrition against mentally weaker players. In Australia, opponents won’t be as mentally fatigued, making it harder for Halep to outlast them. And keep in mind that while she made it to the fourth round at the Australian Open last year and the finals the year before, she was ushered out in the first round in both 2016 and 2017. She’s never won this grand slam.

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