You know, I’m feeling an onset of melancholy. This is it, our last weekend of NFL Football until the preseason kicks off in August. It’s Super Bowl LVIII and a national holiday and, frankly, I’m a little bummed out. Not at the matchup, it’s a phenomenal one, a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, between the top NFC seeded San Francisco 49ers and the third AFC seed Kansas City Chiefs.
For the Niners, it’s a chance to match the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots with a sixth Super Bowl Championship and secure Kyle Shanahan as one of the top three head coaches in all of professional football. For Kansas City, it’s the official coronation of a dynasty, a team that has defined and will continue to define the sport in the 2010s with two once-in-a-lifetime talents in Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce teaming up to create a legacy that could be unmatched.
Shanahan, of course, has some history in this game. His San Fran squad blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead in that aforementioned Super Bowl LIV. Not only that, he was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons in their humiliating collapse against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI, where the dirty birds led, at one point, 28-3. Coming into the playoffs, Shanahan was 0-30 as a head coach when trailing at any time in the fourth quarter. Thanks to the NFC Divisional and Championship Games, he’s now 2-30.
Andy Reid is coaching in his fifth Super Bowl as a head coach. He’s won two and lost two, both to teams quarterbacked by Tom Brady. In fact, only Joe Burrow and Brady have ever bested the Reid-Mahomes led Chiefs in any postseason game.
This will be the 16th all-time meeting between the franchises with the Chiefs holding an 8-7 lead in the matchup. Kansas City has won the last three, all since Mahomes took over at QB, including the aforementioned Super Bowl. They last squared up on Oct. 23, 2022 with KC taking it 44-23.
Patrick Mahomes was 25 of 34 passing for 423 yards, three touchdowns and an interception in the win. Isiah Pacheco rushed eight times for 43 yards. JuJu Smith-Schuster (now with the New England Patriots) caught seven passes or 124 yards and a score. Travis Kelce had six receptions for 98 yards.
In the loss, Jimmy Garopplo (now kind of with the Las Vegas Raiders) was 25 of 37 for 303 yards, two touchdowns and a pick. Brock Purdy came off the bench to go 4 of 9 for 66 yards and an interception. Jefferey Wilson (now with the Miami Dolphins) had seven carries for 54 yards. George Kittle hauled in six passes for 98 yards and a score. Brandon Aiyuk had seven catches for 82 yards.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+2, O/U: 47.5)
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nev.
Broadcast: CBS
Kickoff: Feb. 11, 6:30 p.m.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (14-5)
For just the second time in his entire head coaching career, Kyle Shanahan led his team to a come from behind victory in the NFC Championship, defeating the Detroit Lions 34-31 thanks in large part to multiple stupid Dan Campbell coaching calls. Brock Purdy and Jared Goff basically played out the Spider-Man pointing at his clone meme on the football field. Purdy finished 20 of 31 for 27 yards, one touchdown, one interception and one ball that should have been intercepted that a Lions’ safety decided to headbutt into Brandon Aiyuk’s waiting hands. He was sacked twice. Aiyuk caught two other balls for 68 yards and a score. Deebo Samuel hauled in eight passes for 89 yards and rushed for seven yards. Christian McCaffrey rushed 20 times for 90 yards and two TDs and added four receptions for 42 yards. The defense sacked Goff twice and forced a fumble.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (14-6)
Kansas City’s defense held the Baltimore Ravens, led by sure-fire NFL MVP Lamar Jackson to a total of three points in the second half to hold on to a 17-10 victory in the AFC Championship two weeks ago. Patrick Mahomes was 30 of 39 passing for 241 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions. He scrambled for 15 yards and was sacked twice. Isiah Pacheco had 24 carries for 69 yards and a score. Trais Kelce hauled in 11 passes for 116 yards and a TD. The defense held the Ravens’ rushing attack, the best in the league, to just 81 yards total, picked off Jackson once and sacked him four times.
SUPER BOWL MVP ODDS
Quarterback -250
Any other position +170
Offensive -2000
Defensive +700
Kicker/Punter +3300
Quarterback -250
Tight end
Wide receiver +500
Running back
Any Defensive Position +1600
Kicker
Patrick Mahomes +140
Brock Purdy +250
Christian McCaffrey +450
Travis Kelce +700
Deebo Samuel +2200
Isaih Pacheco +2500
Field (any other player) +3300
Rashee Rice +5000
George Kittle +6600
Brandon Aiyuk
Chris Jones +7500
Fred Warner +7500
Nick Bosa +8000
George Karlaftis +15000
L’Jarius Sneed +15000
Willie Gay +20000
Marquez Valdez-Scantling +20000
Mike Edwards +25000
Dre Greenlaw +250000
Chase Young +30000
Javon Hargrave +30000
Justin Watson +30000
Harrison Butker +30000
Jake Moody +30000
Kadarius Toney +50000
THE PICK
The Niners have looked like the NFC Super Bowl representative since Week 1. The Chiefs, well, I’ve picked against them in the AFC Divisional and Championship rounds and I was not alone. All they’ve done is win when the lights are brightest. If you bet the moneyline in every single Patrick Mahomes playoff appearance, you’d be 15-3. The only quarterbacks to beat Mahomes head-to-head in the postseason are Joe Burrow once and Tom Brady twice. As Pat McAfee has been saying for two weeks, “the Chiefs is the Chiefs” and I’ll have to see them lose a game like this to believe it. And as underdogs, for the third straight week? Come on. Chiefs 31, 49ers 24
MVP
I’m going with Patrick Mahomes, but a monster game from Travis Kelce, with the universe of Swifties pulling for him, wouldn’t surprise me at all. Chris Jones or L’Jarius Sneed on defense are a solid possibility considering the defense might be the reason KC wins it.
Last week
Straight up: 1-1
Against the spread: 2-0
Season
Straight up: 194-90
Against the spread: 179-105
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