Fnatic Have Supplanted G2 as the Favorites to Win the 2020 LEC Spring Split

In arguably the biggest upset in the history of European League of Legends, MAD Lions sent G2 Esports to the lower bracket last weekend. G2 Esports closed as -1800 favorites to advance over MAD Lions, but the nascent franchise was not dissuaded by the long odds. They gritted out a victory in five games over a G2 squad that was continually far too aggressive, and they will have a chance to earn a spot in the Spring Split Finals against Fnatic this weekend. MAD Lions are sizeable underdogs per the League of Legends betting odds in that series too, but they are flying high after their upset of G2.

FRIDAY, APRIL 10

ORIGEN -300

ROGUE +228

Origen have defeated Rogue in both of their previous meetings this season. Their playstyle is very similar to Rogue in that they excel at teamfighting, but the big difference between the two squads has been the draft. Origen have largely excelled during pick and ban, while Rogue’s coaching staff has not looked sharp during this stage.

Rogue were solid in the draft phase last week in their win over Misfits. They put together smart compositions and then let their skill advantage take over in advancing to the next round. Mid laner Larssen had an incredible 11.5 KDA, showcasing his prowess on Azir and Ornn, while Finn controlled the early game with strong performances on Renekton.

Both players will need to have good performances for Rogue to pull off the upset. Origen mid laner Nukeduck is one of the most talented players at his position in the region. He has an incredibly deep champion pool, and that will present problems for Rogue in pick and ban.

The weak link on Origen is top laner Alphari. While he hasn’t been terrible, he just isn’t as talented as the rest of his teammates, and it’s not often that you see him pick up solo kills in the laning phase. Finn has the potential to outperform him in the early game, and that is crucial for Rogue.

The most important part of this game is the play of the junglers though. Xerxe has been one of Europe’s best for the last three years, but he has done the vast majority of his damage on Gragas and Karthus this year. Inspired has the skill to challenge him throughout the game, making Rogue a very live dog per the Esports betting odds in this series.

SATURDAY, APRIL 11

FNATIC -480

MAD LIONS +340

The line on this series has steadily risen throughout the week. Fnatic was initially a –430 favorite in the LEC Spring Split playoffs, but the line has shifted as money has come in on the seven-time champions.

Fnatic were very impressive last week against Origen, and they didn’t show much in their win. Bwipo continued to keep opposing top laners off balance with his off-meta picks like Zac, but the real story was Rekkles’ performance on Senna. In the past, Rekkles has struggled on non-traditional bottom laners, but he shined on the champion with an 8.6 KDA.

It’s difficult to find a position where MAD Lions have an advantage over Fnatic. Their best chance to pick up a victory will likely come through the jungle though. Fnatic jungler Selfmade posted a 2.3 KDA last week, largely due to a poor early game from Olaf in Game 3 of the series with Origen. Meanwhile, Shadow thrived against G2, leading the Lions with a 6.3 KDA. He was responsible for over 20 percent of his team’s damage in that series per Games of Legends.

Although it’s a lot of chalk, Fnatic are the right play in this series. MAD Lions didn’t beat G2 as much as G2 beat themselves, and Fnatic won’t be that undisciplined with their play. Additionally, they won’t give away a power pick like Sett so readily, allowing the Lions’ bottom lane to thrive. Fnatic might end up with a sweep in this series.

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