NFL DRAFT: THE FRANCHISE QUARTERBACKS

BY ADAM GREENE

After establishing that no one on the planet knows how to pick a quarterback, I will now commence to picking out a quarterback.

There are five guys that have been seemingly pre-ordained to go in the first round of the NFL draft. I, in my mock draft, predicted it would be six and I stand by it. It makes too much sense at the bottom of the first round to take a QB.

I’m not going to be ranking guys, but giving them designations based on two factors; their pro potential (based on my own specific criteria) and where they’ll probably be taken.

This is an interesting class because there are so many opinions on guys after the top pick. I’ll cut through some of it and share my own thoughts, realizing, that everyone is always wrong about one or more of these guys.

Last year everybody, including me, had Joe Burrow as their top rated QB and he did not disappoint before he got knocked out with a knee injury. What I did not see is the absolute elite rookie season that Justin Herbert would have. I saw a lot of things I didn’t care for in Herbert’s tape. I also saw a lot of good and but taking him high, as the Los Angeles Chargers did, looked like a recipe to get a head coach fired.

Of course, Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn did get fired, but it had nothing to do with Herbert’s performance as he pocketed the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. I’ll take a push on that one, I guess.

We’re sticking with those same categories this time; POTENTIAL FRANCHISE QBS, QBS THAT WILL GET A HEAD COACH FIRED, HIGH REWARD, LOW RISK QBS and we’re adding JUST GUYS.

Let’s get into it.

THE FRANCHISE QUARTERBACKS

TREVOR LAWRENCE, CLEMSON

6-6. 220 pounds

2020: 69.2 completion percentage, 3,153 yards, 24 touchdowns, five interceptions, 203 rushing yards, eight rushing touchdowns

Lawrence is being called a generational QB talent coming out of the draft and I don’t buy that. If he’d put up the exact same quality of tape last year, I would have still taken Joe Burrow first. If Burrow was in this draft and sat out all year due to COVID-19 (as so many did), I would still take Burrow first.

Still, there’s nothing not to love about the draft’s presumptive No. 1 overall pick and the Jacksonville Jaguars have to be thrilled that Adam Gase did just enough to knock the New York Jets to the second pick so they could secure his services for the next 15-18 years.

If there are knocks against Lawrence, they’re dumb. With the team around him, he didn’t need to throw 40 touchdowns and, though he did lose his College Football Playoff game against Ohio State, he did complete 68.8 percent of his passes for 400 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. I promise you, those stats win in the NFL.

Pro Comparison: Peyton Manning

If you watch Manning’s Tennessee highlights, then take a gander at Lawrence’s, you’re going to see a lot more similarities than just their jersey numbers. In fact, I think Lawrence has way better feet and pocket movement. Of course, there’s a good reason for the comparison. Manning was Lawrence’s favorite player growing up and he even worked with the Hall of Fame QB at the Manning Passing Academy in 2019.

JUSTIN FIELDS, OHIO STATE

6-3, 228 pounds

2020: 70.2 completion percentage, 2,100 yards, 22 touchdowns, six interceptions, 393 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns

Here’s the problem that some scouts and GMs seem to have with Fields as far as I can tell; they do no trust what they have seen with their own eyes.

Fields, in his two years starting for Ohio State, has been a next level quarterback. He took his team to the College Football Playoff both seasons. He threw 41 touchdowns in his first full year as a starter, went toe-to-toe with Lawrence in the Fiesta Bowl, then outperformed Lawrence the very next year in the Sugar Bowl.

In fact, let’s hone in on those Sugar Bowl stats, because this performance was against one of the best teams in the country, riding a dynasty that goes back nearly a decade at this point. Fields threw a total of six incompletions in the game. That just so happens to be the exact same number of touchdowns he threw against a future NFL player-filled defense. He completed 78.6 percent of his passes for 385 yards. He did throw a pick, but, again, six touchdowns against Clemson.

Before people start trotting out the old “Ohio State QB” problem in the NFL, anyone want to tell me the school that has a stellar record producing NFL quarterbacks? As of this writing, the only Universities boasting more than one single NFL starting quarterback are Oklahoma and Cal. Considering that Lincoln Riley has put three consecutive starting QBs in the league, you could argue that he’s putting together a QB factory there.

But Cal? Aaron Rodgers, sure, but Jared Goff is the other guy and the Los Angeles Rams literally just paid a ransom to ship him out of town. Once Lawrence is drafted we’ll have two guys from Clemson if Deshaun Watson can stay off suspension and Louisville gets two as well if Teddy Bridgewater can work his way into a starting job after a trade from the Carolina Panthers.

After that? Well, if Trey Lance gets to start the next school up for the two-for award would be North Dakota State, which isn’t even FBS.

The fact is that Miami of Ohio, Boston College, Fresno State, Eastern Illinois, Wyoming and TCU have produced the exact same number of current starting NFL QBs as any school in the SEC.

And here’s another fact if you’re talking about QBs and their school’s history, BYU hasn’t produced a starting NFL quarterback since 1983 (Steve Young). That was three years before LA Rams head coach Sean McVay was born.

Pro Comparison: Dak Prescott/John Elway

I was the lone guy back in 2016 that had Prescott rated his top QB and I see so many of the same skills, abilities and possibilities with Fields. He’s smart, he scans the field, he knows how to move in the pocket and he’s deadly when he takes off. As a guy that’s going to play as a rookie, he is ideal, especially on a team that already has the pieces (like the 49ers do). If they’re smart enough to make this pick, and they should be, it could be like placing Prescott with the 2016 Dallas Cowboys all over again.

I add Elway here, because that’s exactly who I compared Prescott to coming out of Mississippi State and I feel like that’s held up. Trust what you see. Fields is the guy.

NEXT: The QBs that will get a head coach fired

The NFL DRAFT begins on April 29 at 8 p.m. EST. You can check out my first mock draft by clicking here. You can view all of of BetOnline’s NFL Draft props by clicking here.

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