Rain In The Forecast For Saturday’s Wide Open Kentucky Derby

Even if you’re not typically a horse racing fan, the Kentucky Derby is simply an iconic ‘can’t miss’ event. If you have some free time and want to do some reading you could do a lot worse than boning up on the history of the Kentucky Derby and of the Churchill Downs race course. Both the race and the track have had a long and fascinating history that continues to this day. Saturday’s 2019 Kentucky Derby will be the 145th running of the race. It was first run in 1875 and has been held every year since–even during the first and second world wars. It might not be the biggest horse race of the year among series handicappers–that’s probably the two days of Breeders’ Cup action. It’s not the richest race in the world either–that would likely be between the $16 million Pegasus World Cup or the Dubai World Cup. These superlatives notwithstanding, the Kentucky Derby remains the biggest horse race of the year.

It’s hard not to consider the entrants in the 2019 Kentucky Derby the byproducts of a ‘down year’ for three year olds. That’s only because we’ve had a run of nearly a decade prior to this year’s race with what seems in retrospect like a boundless crop of amazing competitors in the race with some being downright historic. In 2009, there was the insane run in the mud by Calvin Borel aboard 50-1 longshot Mine That Bird. More recently, we’ve had one of the biggest ‘rock star’ horses in recent memory, California Chrome. Of course, you can’t forget the two Triple Crown winners that began their run at Churchill Downs–after a 37 year gap between Affirmed’s Triple Crown win in 1978 and American Pharoah’s in 2015 we’ve had two in four years.

2018’s Triple Crown winner Justify might be the most amazing of all–he broke the ‘Curse of Apollo’ by winning without racing as a two year old. It’s almost unbelievable that he ran only six career races and just four stakes races–all wins. With only two previous starts under his belt he ran off victories in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont. Just over a month after his Triple Crown clinching win at the Belmont, an ankle injury forced him to call it a career.

There don’t appear to be any horses remotely approaching the quality of Justify in the 2019 Derby. The consensus pre-race favorite was Omaha Beach but he had to be scratched due to an entrapped epiglottis. His defection made an already extremely evenly matched field all the more competitive. Haikal, winner of the Grade 3 Gotham, was scratched Friday morning due to a left foot abscess. The lack of a strong favorite means a wide open Kentucky Derby betting odds market and a year where a long shot could take the victory. As if the field itself didn’t already have enough parity, the Saturday forecast is for rain and a potentially muddy track. Not that this is anything new–five of the last ten Kentucky Derby races have been run on an ‘off track’.

This is also expected to be a race with a slow pace–there just isn’t any serious front running speed in the field. Omaha Beach was expected to set the pace out of the gate but now it will most likely be Florida Derby winner Maximum Security. He won that race wire to wire but set an extremely slow pace in doing so. That probably won’t be possible and he’ll need to be a bit more speedy early on against a more competitive field than he faced at Gulfstream Park. A slow pace often equates to a wide open race and any type of ‘off track’ would only add to the volatility. As of this writing, there are six horses priced at single digit odds with Game Winner and Improbable the co-favorites at 6-1 with Roadster right behind at 7-1. The fact that these three horses are trained by Bob Baffert could be the salient factor in their short odds.

If you’re looking for a horse that will benefit from a muddy track you could do much worse than War of Will (16-1). War of Will broke his maiden on a muddy track at Churchill Downs last November. In addition, he began his career running four races on turf and there’s a time honored theory that horses with experience on the turf translate well to a rainy or muddy track. By My Standards (16-1) finished second in his career debut on the same day in November as War of Will. Florida Derby winner Maximum Security also won an Optional Claiming race at Gulfstream Park in the mud. Bob Baffert’s Improbable finished second to Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby on a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park.

So who will win? The parity in the field combined with the potential for an off track combined with a likely slow pace makes it very much a wide open race. You can’t argue with Bob Baffert’s success at Churchill Downs–five wins and he trained both of the recent Triple Crown winners. I like Improbable marginally more than co-favorite Game Winner. Game Winner is one of only two horses in the field with a 100+ Beyer but that’s likely less of an issue on an off track. I am going to use Florida Derby winner Maximum Security–with all of the Baffert love at the betting window he’s starting to look undervalued. I’ll also throw in War of Will and will definitely use him underneath on exotics. He’s performed well in mud and he’s a better horse than his price suggests.

BET IMPROBABLE 6-1
BET MAXIMUM SECURITY 9-1
BET WAR OF WILL 16-1