What’s Floyd Mayweather’s Next Move?

I covered boxing extensively during Floyd ‘Money’ Mayweather’s prime and I lost count of how many times he said he was going to retire and/or un-retire over the years. There’s new fuel fanning the flames of a Mayweather return today though he has given some confusing and downright contradictory statements in the past few days. So what’s next for Floyd Mayweather? Is he making a ‘comeback’ and if he does in what form? Who will he fight? So many questions. We don’t have any answers at this point but we *do* have some Floyd Mayweather betting odds!

Before we get to the odds, let’s bring you up to speed on the context. Earlier this week, Mayweather proclaimed that he is ‘done with boxing’ in a wide ranging interview with REUTERS stressing the inherent dangers of ‘the sweet science’ and his good fortune in having his health so he can enjoy his wealth. On a micro level, he was dismissing speculation of a possible return to face Manny Pacquiao or reigning Mexican box office/PPV buyrate king Canelo Alverez:

“I’ve got calls to get back into the ring, but my health is my wealth. Boxing is a very, very brutal sport. In the last few years a lot of fighters have died inside that squared circle.”

“You have got to know when to hang it up. I had a great career.”

Mayweather went on to say that he was open to fighting in ‘exhibitions’ such as his appearance in Japan against kickboxer Tenshin Nasukawa whom he dispatched in less than a round:

“I’ll still travel and do exhibitions. I make great money doing exhibitions — between $10 and $30 million. I think I make more doing that than most fighters make fighting.”

Mayweather was making the media rounds to promote the opening of his fourth Mayweather + Fitness gym location in Torrance, California. He’s also got a successful promotional company that is reportedly going to expand from boxing into MMA within the next year. His takeaway sounded for all the world like a coda on his Hall of Fame career:

“My career went great. I’m happy with how everything played out.”

THE PLOT THICKENS….

The finality that Mayweather expressed in the REUTERS interview lasted less than 24 hours. On Wednesday night, he made a post to Instagram showing himself and UFC President/New BFF Dana White courtside at the LA Clippers/Boston Celtics basketball gaming with the caption: ““(Dana White) and I working together again to bring the world another spectacular event in 2020” followed by hashtags for Mayweather Promotions, boxing, UFC and MMA.

https://www.instagram.com/p/B5Jwv_MFLJi/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

He followed that oblique and inscrutable message with a more direct yet equally cryptic Instagram post that said simply: “Coming out of retirement in 2020.”

https://www.instagram.com/p/B5J0IMTlUYt/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

WHAT’S IN THE WORKS FOR ‘MONEY’ MAYWEATHER ODDS AND ANALYSIS

The oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag sprung into action immediately to post some numbers in an effort to make sense out of the confusing and somewhat contradictory messages out of the Mayweather Camp. One set of odds focused on where the next fight would take place and in what form with the two top betting interests ‘boxing’ at +175 and ‘UFC’ at +300.

FLOYD MAYWEATHER: NEXT FIGHT TO BE IN WHAT SPORT OR PROMOTION

BOXING +175
UFC +300
RIZIN +5000
BARE KNUCKLE FC +10000
ONE CHAMPIONSHIP +10000

Mayweather will likely work with UFC President Dana White and/or the UFC itself to promote any bout and certainly the PPV component. No reason to think that he’s going to do it in the Singapore based ONE Fighting Championship promotion or the Japanese RIZIN promotion after his Instagram post hanging and plotting with Dana White. You can forget about any type of Bare Knuckle Fighting–Mayweather had notoriously brittle hands early in his career and he’s not going to take that risk. The most likely scenario is a boxing match with a MMA fighter similar to his hugely successful bout with Conor McGregor.

And who might that bout be against? The BetOnline.ag oddsmakers set numbers on a list of names including YouTube superstars Logan Paul (+1000) and KSI (+500) who had boxed just a week ago and drew a surprisingly large crowd to the Staples Center to witness the event. Also in the mix were Logan Paul’s brother (and YouTube sensation in his own right) Jake Paul (+1400) and yet another YouTube/social media phenom Vitaly Zdorovetskiy (+1200).

WHO MAYWEATHER WOULD (AND WOULDN’T) FIGHT AND WHY

It’s doubtful that Mayweather would want to fight any of the previously listed YouTube superstars for demographic reasons–they might be hugely popular among a younger age group but no one over the age of 30 knows who they are. Besides, Logan Paul is appealing his loss to the California State Athletic Commission so they might not be done with each other yet. There’s also a potential contractual snafu–the Logan Paul/KSI boxing match was televised ‘exclusively’ on the DAZN streaming network. Dana White/Mayweather might have to get them involved in the promotion to make it work and it’s unlikely they’d want to go that route.

Also on the list but highly unlikely: Dana White himself (+10000) and four weight world champion Canelo Alverez (+1000). Mayweather defeated him early in his career but there’s no way he’d put that glossy 50-0 record at risk against a tough opponent in his prime like Alverez. It would do big numbers on PPV but probably not as big as Mayweather/McGregor. Although there’s been talk of a rematch with Manny Pacquiao (+200) he’s still an extremely viable fighter. Again, no reason for Mayweather to make things more difficult on himself than necessary.

Like the old saying goes, ‘if it ain’t broke don’t fix it’. The perfect opponent would be a big name from the MMA world brought in to face Mayweather in a boxing match. Khabib Nurmagomedov (+350) is at the top of the sport right now but in terms of a mainstream audience Georges St-Pierre (+300) is likely more of a draw. GSP is also hugely popular in Canada and the PPV buyrate North of the Border would be through the roof.

Both Khabib and GSP are very tough dudes but neither are professional boxers. The reality is that neither man is going to get into the ring with a technical master like Mayweather and beat him at his own game. Lest we forget, Mayweather is one of the most accomplished defensive virtuosos in boxing history as well as a deadly counterpuncher. It’s no different than LeBron James taking a few months of ice skating lessons and then expecting him to outscore Connor McDavid over an 80 game NHL season just because he’s so good at basketball.

For Mayweather, the beautiful thing about fighting a top name from the UFC is that while boxing cognoscenti understand the near impossibility of a MMA fighter beating him under Marquis of Queensbury rules the general public doesn’t. Conor McGregor took a ton of action in his fight against Mayweather and against any other high level UFC fighter it would be ‘deja vu all over again’. Mayweather’s undefeated record is at minimal risk yet the general public doesn’t get this and think that it’s a highly competitive fight and they’re the ones that push PPV buy rates to the stratosphere.

FLOYD MAYWEATHER NEXT BOXING OR MMA OPPONENT

MANNY PACQUIAO +200
GEORGES ST-PIERRE +300
KHABIB NURMAGOMEDOV +350
KSI +500
CANELO ALVEREZ +1000
CONOR MCGREGOR +1000
LOGAN PAUL +1000
VITALY ZDOROVETSKIY +1200
JAKE PAUL +1400
DANA WHITE +10000

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