Who Will be the Next Candidate to Drop Out of the Race for the Democratic Nomination?

The race to win the Democratic Party nomination for the 2020 Presidential Election is starting to narrow. Results in Iowa and New Hampshire led to a handful of candidates ending their presidential campaigns, leaving eight candidates remaining ahead of the Nevada Caucuses in less than two weeks. While most candidates will likely stay in the race until Super Tuesday (March 3), one or two might drop out before that make or break day, as it becomes more and more obvious that they don’t have enough support to continue. Which candidate will be the next to join Andrew Yang, Michael Bennet, and Deval Patrick as an observer? Let’s break it down.

WHICH CANDIDATE WILL DROP OUT NEXT?

TOM STEYER +250
TULSI GABBARD +250
ELIZABETH WARREN +400
JOE BIDEN +450
AMY KLOBUCHAR +500
PETE BUTTIGIEG +2500
MICHAEL BLOOMBERG +3300
BERNIE SANDERS +5000

The co-favorites to be the next candidate to bow out are Tom Steyer and Tulsi Gabbard. Steyer has spent a significant chunk of his massive fortune on his campaign, but he has yet to gain much traction in the polls. He could only pick up a shade over 10,000 votes in New Hampshire despite spending $19.2 million in the Granite State, yet he has shown no signs of backing off despite his failure to resonate with voters. Steyer has doubled down on Nevada and South Carolina, and he appears to set to be in the race until at least Super Tuesday. His considerable resources mean he can stay in the race longer than other candidates, so don’t be shocked if he lasts longer than candidates with more mainstream appeal.

Gabbard is my bet to be the next candidate to suspend their campaign. She only received 3.3 percent of the vote in New Hampshire despite skipping Iowa in order to focus on the state, and she doesn’t have the resources of the other candidates remaining in the race. She has been defiant to date, raving against the political establishment at every turn since Iowa, but she is becoming a distant memory. Gabbard is no longer being invited to town halls or debates, and it’s just a matter of time before she folds up shop.

Elizabeth Warren’s numbers have been flagging, but she will stick around until Super Tuesday. While Warren underwhelmed in New Hampshire, she still has a broad national appeal, and she is the only progressive in the race other than Bernie Sanders. She will likely throw her support behind Sanders some time next month, but there’s a good chance she stays in the race until it’s obvious she can’t win due to Sanders’ health troubles.

Former Vice President Joe Biden could be good value at +450 to be the next candidate to leave the race. If Gabbard continues to be defiant by remaining in the race until after Super Tuesday, the former frontrunner might well be the next candidate to pull out. Biden will certainly stay in until Super Tuesday as he has polled well in many of the southern states that will hold their primaries on that date, but if he has a disappointing day, he will likely look to save as much face as possible by bowing out in the next week.

There’s almost no chance that Amy Klobuchar drops out next. Klobuchar’s campaign has momentum after a strong performance in New Hampshire earlier this week, and she is challenging Pete Buttigieg for the moderate vote in the Democratic Party. Her star has risen at the expense of both Buttigieg and Biden, and she should see a significant boost in her fundraising efforts after her debate performance and her showing in the polls. A sudden scandal would likely be the only thing that forces Klobuchar out of the race in the next month.

Likewise, the chances of Bernie Sanders, Michael Bloomberg, or Buttigieg to be the next candidate to drop out of the race are miniscule. All three candidates are likely to stay in until at least April barring something unforeseen, and these three candidates are the current favorites to become the Democratic nominee this summer.

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