Best Bets at the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Classic

Casual horse racing fans erroneously believe that the biggest horse race of the season is the Kentucky Derby. The Derby has the tradition and the pageantry, but the Breeders’ Cup has surpassed it in terms of prestige. Only the truly elite horses are allowed to participate in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, so you won’t find 20-horse fields and crowded tracks at Keeneland this Saturday. This year’s Breeders’ Cup will be broadcast on NBC starting at 2:30 p.m. ET, and post-time for the Classic is approximately 5:13 p.m. ET.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2MbLkLL-5w&feature=youtu.be

Event Details

Event: Breeders Cup Classic

Date: Saturday, November 7, 2020

Location: Keeneland, Lexington, Kentucky

Past Winners

2019: Vino Rosso 2:02.80

2018: Accelerate 2:02.93

2017: Gun Runner 2:01.29

2016: Arrogate 2:00.11

2015: American Pharoah 2:00.07

Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds

Improbable +250

Tiz the Law +300

Maximum Security +350

Tom’s d’Etat +600

Authentic +600

By My Standards +1000

Tacitus +2000

Higher Power +2000

Global Campaign +2000

Title Ready +3000

Three of the five favorites at this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic are trained by the legendary Bob Baffert, so he is currently -150 to see one of his horses take the win on Saturday. Improbable is considered the best of the bunch, and he is likely to be the morning line favorite. The four-year-old failed to finish in the money in the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness Stakes last year, but he has come into his own in 2020. Improbable has won the Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes, Whitney Stakes, and the Awesome Again Stakes since June, posting speed figures of 116, 120, and 120 in those races.

Maximum Security has taken it to another level over the last year. He has posted a speed rating of 106 or higher in each of his last 10 races, and he has five first-place finishes and one second-place finish over his last six races. His lone Place was behind Improbable at the Awesome Again Stakes, and he posted a blistering 123 in winning the Cigar Mile Handicap at Aqueduct last December and a 118 rating at the TVG Pacific Classic Stakes this August.

2020 Kentucky Derby Winner Authentic is Baffert’s third horse, but he is the biggest ‘longshot’ with odds of 6-1. The three-year-old won the Haskell Stakes before claiming the Derby in September, but he finished behind filly Swiss Skydiver at the Preakness Stakes last month. We haven’t seen a three-year-old win this race since Arrogate in 2016, and Authentic’s speed figures suggest he is unlikely to break that streak.

Tiz the Law has a much better chance of winning this race as a three-year-old. He finished runner-up to Authentic at the Kentucky Derby, but he claimed four straight wins between February and August. His speed rating in each of those wins was between 112 and 117, indicating he has the giddy-up to catch the horses with a little more seasoning. That makes him my favorite bet outside of the Baffert horses at +300.

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