NFL DRAFT: LOW RISK, HIGH REWARD QUARTERBACKS

BY ADAM GREENE

Here’s the thing about this list. It’s predicated on the fact that the draft won’t go off the rails immediately with a dose of pure insanity. What would make that happen? The San Francisco 49ers taking Mac Jones out of Alabama at No. 3.

That might run contradictory to what you’re about to read about Mr. Jones, but it’s just the truth. The 49ers traded their first round pick this season and their first round picks for the next two seasons, along with a third rounder next year, to move up from No. 12 to No. 3 to take a quarterback. In what universe is that quarterback Mac Jones?

There is some buzz, pundits talking and maybe Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have paid a king’s ransom to move up nine spots to take a player that I think would absolutely have fallen right into their laps at 12 and they would have kept those three other picks.

Justin Fields should absolutely be their pick. He’s a Dak Prescott/Deshaun Watson type QB that would be deadly in Shanahan’s run-heavy attack. But, hey, these coaches have done crazy stuff before.

The idea behind the low risk, high reward quarterback is exactly that what it sounds like. You let the guy fall to you in a logical place to take him. In my first mock draft, which has already been blown up by the Kansas City Chiefs trading the No. 31 overall pick to the Baltimore Ravens for Orlando Brown, I had Jones going to the Washington Football Team at No. 19. Even that is high, but not if you need a QB (and they probably do) and you don’t make any crazy moves to get one.

So, here’s the deal. My last article had Zach Wilson and Trey Lance as two rookie quarterbacks that will get a head coach fired. If Jones goes at No. 3, add him to that list. If he goes where he should, in the bottom half of the first round, then he gets to stay here where I have him.

MAC JONES, ALABAMA

6-3, 214 pounds

2020: 77.4 completion percentage, 4,500 yards, 41 touchdowns, four interceptions, one rushing touchdown

It may sound like I’m down on Jones and I’m not. He had a terrific season, put up huge numbers and won a national title. His tape looks good. And, again, if you take him at the right spot, he could turn out to be everything he could possibly be. At No. 3, he could turn into Mitchell Trubisky. Because, here’s the thing. The dude looks a lot like Mitchell Trubisky.

Jones, like Trubisky, has just one full season as a starting QB on his resume. Both followed flashier, more athletic guys. In Trubisky’s case, it was the underrated Marquise Williams. For Jones, it was Tua Tagovailoa . In that 2016 season, Trubisky completed 68.0 percent of his passes for 3,748 yards, 30 touchdowns and six interceptions and he did it at North Carolina, playing with nowhere near the talent around him that Jones had at Alabama. What I’m saying is, you put 2016 UNC Trubisky on the 2020 Alabama team, you’re probably getting the same stats and same results. They’re even practically the same size, as Trubisky is 6-2, 215.

Trubisky is viewed as a bust only because the Chicago Bears took him over other, better quarterbacks (Watson and Patrick Mahomes) and traded up to do it. A trade with the 49ers, no less. If Trubisky had gone where he should have, to the New York Giants at No. 23, Cleveland Browns at No. 25 or the Buffalo Bills at No. 27, he would probably have enjoyed a different career with different expectations.

The truth is, Trubisky has a winning record as a QB, 29-21, and he’s taken the Bears to the postseason twice in four seasons. You could do a lot worse. He made the Pro Bowl in 2018.

Pro Comparison: Andy Dalton

I’ve already spoiled my Trubisky comparison, but I’ll toss Dalton in here as the other guy whom Jones reminds me. Dalton is a talented guy. He’s started and won games in the NFL. Drug the Cincinnati Bengals into the playoffs. But you don’t take him at No. 3. With Jones, you’re getting a potential NFL starter with a lot of upside. Maybe you get Matt Ryan, and that’s great. But you could also end up with Andy Dalton or Mitchell Trubisky and as long as you didn’t mortgage your team’s future to make that happen, you’re golden.

KYLE TRASK, FLORIDA

6-5, 240 pounds

2020: 68.9 completion percentage, 4,283 yards, 43 touchdowns, eight interceptions, three rushing touchdowns

Here’s the mystery to me. Trask puts up similar numbers to Jones against pretty much the same schedule, minus a few College Football Playoff games, and he’s getting very little love. Some draft sites have him listed below Stanford’s David Mills, who barely played any college football at all. When I look at Trask, I see an absolute steal. A first round talent that somebody needs to grab at the end of the draft’s opening day to secure his fifth year option.

In my first mock draft, I had the Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers doing just that. Trask meets all the criteria I’m looking for in a QB. He can read a defense, move in the pocket and make accurate throws. He has all the athleticism you need, especially for a bigger guy. He’s played with NFL caliber receivers and tight ends and completed his throws against NFL caliber defenders. He can move, stretch plays with his feet, and throw accurately on the run. I don’t know what these pundits and scouts are missing. To me, Trask is the third best QB in this draft behind Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields.

Pro Comparison: Ben Roethlisberger

The Pittsburgh Steelers pick late enough in the first round that grabbing Trask makes sense for them. He looks like a Roethlisberger clone to me and sitting a year behind Big Ben could pay dividends for both Trask and the Steelers for the next 15-18 years.  They could play the long game and hope he falls to them in the second round, but I don’t see how I’m the only person on the planet that realizes the talent this kid has. Of course, I was alone in my analysis of Dak Prescott, but it’s been a long five years and hopefully these scouting departments have wised up a tad.

NEXT: THE REST OF THE QUARTERBACKS

The NFL DRAFT begins on April 29 at 8 p.m. EST. You can check out my first mock draft by clicking here. You can view all of of BetOnline’s NFL Draft props by clicking here.

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