Democratic Nominee for the 2020 US Presidential Election 11/26/19 Update

The fifth Democratic Debate took place in Atlanta last week, and that has led to a change in the odds to win the Democratic Party nomination for the 2020 US Presidential Election. Elizabeth Warren is no longer the favorite, falling back into a tie with establishment frontrunner Joe Biden, and Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg continue to make in-roads. As of now, it’s a four-person race although Michael Bloomberg has odds of +800 to win the Democratic nomination, but a lot can change between now and when the Iowa Caucuses take place on February 3.

WHO WILL WIN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY’S NOMINATION FOR THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

ELIZABETH WARREN +350
JOE BIDEN +350
PETE BUTTIGIEG +500
BERNIE SANDERS +550
MICHAEL BLOOMBERG +800
ANDREW YANG +1200
HILLARY CLINTON +1400
KAMALA HARRIS +3300
TULSI GABBARD +3300
AMY KLOBUCHAR +4000
CORY BOOKER +4000
TOM STEYER +5000

Elizabeth Warren is the co-favorite to win the Democratic Party’s nomination, but she is not currently set to win any of the early primaries. That’s a bit of a concern, but she has raised the second-most money and has the third-most endorsements according to FiveThirtyEight.

Warren has a lot going for her too. Her policies are largely progressive, but she is more centrist than Bernie Sanders. That means she can pull votes from both the center and the progressive blocs of the Democratic Party, and she is polling relatively well nationally.

There is some moderate value in Warren at this price. She was 22-1 per the political betting odds earlier in the year, but she has proven she has staying power whereas former contenders like Kamala Harris have faded. Warren has an extensive ground game with deep roots, so don’t be surprised if she performs better than expected in places like South Carolina. She also stands to be the primary beneficiary of Bernie Sanders’ supporters if he bows out of the race, and that would make her bid even stronger.

Joe Biden remains the leader in the national polls, but his vote share has decreased dramatically since the summer. Biden largely benefited from name recognition and association with a popular president, and others are catching him as they raise their own profiles.

The former Vice President is prone to gaffes too. He seemed to be fading at the end of the last debate and made multiple errors that have been seized upon by his rivals. That has tarnished his star, and his reputation is being drug through the mud by other candidates and the media. Biden is not the horse you want to bet on in this race.

Pete Buttigieg might be worth some money though. Buttigieg has emerged as the biggest centrist challenger to Biden, and he is currently ahead in Iowa. Other candidates treated him as the frontrunner on the stage last week, and he was constantly put on the defensive by a few of the longshots and the moderators. The mayor from South Bend handled himself well though, raising his star in the process, and his odds are likely to drop in the coming weeks.

Recent polls indicate that Buttigieg has received a bit of a bump after his debate performance. Buttigieg was polling in the single digits nationally, but he is the second most popular candidate nationally next to Biden in the latest poll from Quinnipiac University, grabbing 16 percent of the vote. His fundraising has been spectacular for a candidate without much of a national profile, and he has aligned himself with many of the corporate donors that support centrists.

Bernie Sanders’ base is rock solid, and he has received money from more donors than any other candidate. He has the support of The Squad and others love the old senator from Vermont. Sanders has been the most progressive Democrat for quite some time, and his no-nonsense attitude is respected even by his critics.

He performed very well in the polls in 2016, losing a close race to Hillary Clinton despite having only a fraction of her considerable resources. Unfortunately, he is 78, and health concerns have dogged him since he had a heart attack a few months ago. Any additional health issues could submarine his campaign, and he will have a tough time pushing through a crowded field too, so don’t bet on Bernie.

Michael Bloomberg is another candidate to avoid. Bloomberg hasn’t even made his candidacy official, but he has odds of less than 10-1 because of his considerable fortune. This is not a race a billionaire will win.

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