Djokovic Favored To Claim Eighth Australian Open Title

The draw has been revealed for the 2020 Australian Open and while the women’s side is wide open, the main question for the men is will someone outside the Big 3 – Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, or Roger Federer – will win a major championship? Let’s take a closer look and see if we should expect a changing of the guard in Australia.

TOURNAMENT: AUSTRALIAN OPEN
CATEGORY: GRAND SLAM
DATE: JANUARY 20-FEBRUARY 2, 2020
LOCATION: MELBOURNE PARK – MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA

LAST 5 CHAMPIONS

2019: NOVAK DJOKOVIC
2018: ROGER FEDERER
2017: ROGER FEDERER
2016: NOVAK DJOKOVIC
2015: NOVAK DJOKOVIC

THE FAVORITE

Novak Djokovic is the obvious favorite as if he’s on his game, nobody is going to beat him. He soundly defeated Rafael Nadal in straight sets in the final round of the ATP Cup, leading Serbia over Spain for the title and also beat another top-four player, Daniil Medvedev of Russia, in the semifinals. Djokovic, between singles and doubles, won all eight matches he played at the ATP Cup and played great tennis. He is obviously prepared for this tournament and did not seem to be physically hampered at all. That’s really the only thing to be concerned about. If he’s healthy, he has everything lined up to win the event.

The other key here is he got a very reasonable draw, for reasons which will be explained in the other sections below. The only real threat to Djokovic before the semifinal round is Stefanos Tsitsipas, whom he could face in the quarterfinals. Djokovic did lose to Roger Federer at the ATP Finals in November, but the chances that Federer will beat Djokovic in consecutive matches are very low. The odds rest with Djokovic in Melbourne.

THE DARK HORSE

The player who could surprise everyone and win the title is Dominic Thiem. He could play Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals and while Nadal would be favored in that match if it happened, Thiem very nearly defeated Nadal in the quarterfinals of the 2018 U.S. Open. That marked one of the first matches in Thiem’s career in which he played an elite player at a high level on hardcourts. He’s typically been a weaker player on the hardcourts as his game is better suited for clay. After that match, he steadily improved on hardcourts and he carried that improvement into 2019 when he won his first Masters 1000 championship on hardcourts in Indian Wells, beating Federer in the final.

Thiem has a legitimate chance of beating Nadal here in Australia, partly because Nadal played a lot of tennis at the ATP Cup and could be worn down later in the tournament. Thiem and his Austrian side lost early in the ATP Cup, meaning that Thiem did not exhaust his body with a large number of matches. If you’re looking for a non-Big 3 dark horse, Thiem is the guy that could make his way through Nadal in the quarters and then Medvedev in the semifinals.

WHOM NOT TO TRUST

Nadal won the U.S. Open, but as we know, what happens in New York generally doesn’t carry over to Melbourne, where Nadal has won the Australian Open only one time. Nadal has also played a lot of tennis as noted above. When he loads up on hardcourt tennis, a knee injury is often just around the corner. Because Nadal has received a list of tough opponents in the second week of the tournament – Nick Kyrgios or Karen Khachanov in the fourth round, Thiem in the quarterfinals, Medvedev in the semis, and Djokovic in a possible final – his path to a title is far more difficult than the other top contenders. Nadal winning this tournament is not a great bet to make.

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