2026 Cy Young Preview: AL & NL Odds, Favorites, Predictions

Watching starters in baseball isn’t the same as it was back in the day.  Now everything is about analytics, and many pitchers are on a count and rarely go deep into games.  Still, there’s something special about watching MLB’s elite take the mound and pitch absolute gems.  Last season, Tigers Tarik Skubal and Pirates Paul Skenes were dominant on their way to winning Cy Young awards.  And in 2026, both are considered the favorites in their respective leagues.  But who else will contend?  Are there dark horses?  Let’s find out and see who the contenders are for this coming season.

American League

The Favorites 

Tarik Skubal, Tigers (+400)

Without a doubt, Tarik Skubal has been the best pitcher in baseball over the last two seasons.  He ranks first in ERA and K’s while winning two straight Cy Young awards. Skubal won unanimously in 2024 and took 26 of 30 first-place votes last season.  Skubal is in the final year of a deal, and if he’s traded, it could throw the AL race wide open.

Garrett Crochet, Red Sox (+450)

Garrett Crochet finished runner-up to Skubal last season, receiving four first-place votes and 26 second-place. He finished the season with an 18-5 record in 32 starts and a 2.59 ERA. Crochet was so dominant that he had an MLB-leading 255 strikeouts in an American League-leading 205.1 innings of work. The conversation around Garrett Crochet’s 2026 Cy Young odds and breakout case is already gaining momentum, as 2026 could be the year he finally captures his first award.

Cole Ragans, Royals (+500)

Cole Ragans has legit 2026 Cy Young upside, but his case comes down to one thing: health and workload.  When he’s on the mound, Ragans brings elite strikeout stuff and strong underlying metrics.  He played just 13 games, 61.2 innings last season, and dealt with injuries. If he can reach 160+ innings and has a strong ERA with high K’s, he’ll be in the mix. But these odds are too low for someone looking to rebound.

Dark Horses

Bryan Woo, Mariners (+1800) 

Bryan Woo was 15-7 last season and threw 198 strikeouts. 73% of his throws were either a four-seam fastball or a sinker in 2025.  No other pitcher threw those as much as the Mariners ace.  If he can become better with his breaking pitches and stay healthy, Woo could be a real run at the Cy, and these are the kind of odds sharps are looking for. 

Dylan Cease, Blue Jays (+4000)

This is a real longshot but we’ll still make a case for the Blue Jays new starter. Dylan Cease posted the third-highest strikeout and walk rates among starters in 2025.  Since becoming a full-time starter back in 2021, Cease leads MLB in strikeouts, walks, and wild pitches.  High risk, high reward, and there’s no denying he has some of the best stuff in baseball.  He finished second and fourth in Cy Young votes and could challenge in 2026.

AL Cy Young Odds

Tarik Skubal +400

Garrett Crochet +450

Cole Ragans +500

Jacob deGrom +1100

Hunter Brown +1200

Bryan Woo +1200

Logan Gilbert +1400

Max Fried +1600

Joe Ryan +1600

National League

The Favorites 

Paul Skenes, Pirates (+300)

Paul Skenes became the first unanimous NL Cy Young winner since 2022 and is the overwhelming favorite to repeat.  Skenes had a 1.97 ERA in 32 starts, which included 216 strikeouts and 42 walks.  At just 23, Skenes will be in the conversation for years to come.  While he is dominant and the best pitcher in the NL, the odds may be too low for a decent return.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (+500)

Yoshinobu Yamamoto was named World Series MVP last season and is coming off a great second season in the league.  In 30 starts, the 27-year-old posted a 2.49 ERA and went 12-8 while striking out 200 batters.  Don’t forget, he was the best pitcher in Japan, winning three MVPs.  He will likely be Skene’s main competition in 2026.

Cristopher Sanchez, Reds (+900)

Cristopher Sanchez had a fabulous season as he finished second to Skenes in voting.  His breakout season included posting an 8.0 bWAR that actually led all of baseball. Sanchez likely becomes the ace in Cincinnati and is ranked as a top-5 starter in many forecasts.  However, Sanchez would need to see everything go his way in 2026 to overtake Skenes or others.

Dark Horses

Hunter Greene, Reds (+1400)

His 2025 season was cut short because of a groin injury, but when healthy, Hunter Greene is one of the best pitchers in baseball.  He was on pace for career-highs in K’s, WHIP, and ERA before his season was cut short.  Through 19 games, he still managed 132 K’s, a 2.76 ERA, and a 7-4 record. 

Shohei Ohtani,  Dodgers (+1600)

While Shohei Ohtani has won four MVPs he’s never won a Cy Young.  He only pitched 17 games and 47 innings after returning from major elbow surgery and many feel this season we’ll see a big difference in his starts. Ohtani was limited in most of his starts in 2026 but expect him to go deeper in games, and if he can showcase his arm, the price may be worth a bit of a play.

NL Cy Young Odds

Paul Skenes +300

Yoshinobu Yamamoto +500

Cristopher Sanchez +900

Logan Webb +1100

Zack Wheeler +1200

Chris Sale +1400

Hunter Greene +1400

Blake Snell +1600

Freddy Peralta +1600