5 BEST LONG SHOT 2026-27 NFL COACH OF THE YEAR BETS

When you look at the 2026-27 NFL Coach of the Year odds, it’s easy to understand why John Harbaugh is the favorite. He’s going into a solid situation with the New York Giants. His offense is all but set, with three talented young skill players in Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo, and Malik Nabors. He’ll come into the new season with that fabled “easy fourth place” schedule that helped the New England Patriots make it all the way to the Super Bowl. At +500, John Harbaugh is obviously your “best bet.”

And there’s reason to go ahead and toss some cash at it. Mike Vrabel of the aforementioned Patriots was the favorite last offseason, and he won it pretty easily. For many of the same reasons, we’ve tabbed Harbaugh as our favorite coming into 2026. But that’s no way to make any real money, is it? 

First off, let’s get this whole debate out of the way for the purists out there. Coach of the Year never goes to the “Best Coach.” If it did, Andy Reid, Sean McVay, and Kyle Shanahan would be passing this thing back and forth pretty much every year since Bill Belichick was given the boot out of the league. 

This award usually goes to the guy who took a team that was garbage before he got there, or has underperformed in the past, and turned it into a power in a single season. It’s a reward for exceeding low expectations. That trend shows up clearly in NFL Coach of the Year betting odds, which often favor turnaround narratives over established elite coaches.

It’s why Vrabel and Kevin Stefanski have won it twice (Vrabel with the Tennessee Titans and Pats, Stefanski with the Browns twice) and why McVay has only won it once, in his first season with the Los Angeles Rams after taking over for Jeff “7-9” Fisher. 

For the record, Harbaugh won it once before, back in 2019, the year after turning his Baltimore Ravens offense over to Lamar Jackson, and went 14-2. For a McVay, Reid, or Shanahan (all +4500) to win it, their teams will have to flirt with undefeated seasons. 

So, knowing that, here are my best longshot picks to win the 2026-27 NFL Coach of the Year.

5. ZAC TAYLOR, Cincinnati Bengals +4000

Coaching record: 52-63, 2021-22 AFC North Champion, 2021-22 AFC Champion

Taylor’s past success works against him, in spite of his coaching record. No one has been hurt more by key player injuries as a head coach than Taylor, who seems to show his deficiencies every time Joe Burrow is in street clothes. What could change in 2026? A healthy Burrow and an AFC North that is there for the taking. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers won the division last year at 10-7, and no other team finished with a winning record. There’s a good chance that Lamar Jackson has hit the QB cliff and, even if he hasn’t, the Ravens’ jettisoning Harbaugh could lead to a rocky start. With a healthy offense and passable defense, the Bengals could easily win 12 games, and that mark alone would put Taylor in the running. If they end up playing for home field, he could be your winner.

4. TODD MONKEN, Cleveland Browns +2200

Coaching Record: First head coaching job

Monken goes from being a slightly underperforming offensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens to the only guy who would take the Browns’ job. So why is he on this list? Because the guy who had the job before him, Kevin Stefanski, won it twice by just getting the Browns to respectability and into the playoffs. As I said earlier, the AFC North is ripe for the picking, and Cleveland already has the best defensive unit in the division. Where Taylor would need a minimum of 12 wins to get into contention for this award, Monken all but guarantees a win with 10. All he’s got to do is put a passable offense on the field. 

3. SHANE STEICHEN, Indianapolis Colts +2800

Coaching Record: 25-26

Steichen was in the running for Coach of the Year in 2025 until Daniel Jones ruptured his Achilles tendon and ended the Colts’ AFC South title run. While Jones might not be 100 percent when the season starts, Steichen kept Indianapolis competitive with the propped-up husk of Philip Rivers. They have one of the more solid rosters in the AFC, and if they can sneak a few wins in the opening month of the season before Jones truly gets back, the Colts are just as dangerous as the Jacksonville Jaguars as a potential AFC North Super Bowl contender. Like Taylor, 12 wins put him in the mix here.

2. KEVIN STEFANSKI, Atlanta Falcons +1200

Coaching record: 45-56

Could Stefanski be in line to nab his third Coach of the Year award? If he gets the perennially underperforming Falcons to that 11-win mark, you better believe it. The only thing that the Coach of the Year voters love more than the feel-good story of a fresh-faced head coach resurrecting a franchise is an older head coach resurrecting a franchise and his career at the same time, not only proving he was the right guy for the job, but proving that the team that fired him was dumb to do it. Just look at Mike Vrabel hoisting the trophy this past season. 

Working for Stefanski is the NFC South, which is a dumpster fire. The Carolina Panthers won it last season with an 8-9 record, and Atlanta finished with that same mark. I don’t think 10 wins would do it for Stefanski, but 11 or 12 would. 

1. ROBERT SALEH, Tennessee Titans +975

Coaching Record: 20-36

It could be that the Titans’ job was one of the few that no one really wanted, but turning this team around has led to coaching hardware before. Again, Mike Vrabel becomes the poster child for most of this list. 

Saleh is coming into a very similar situation to the one Vrabel did last season. He’ll be the beneficiary of a fourth-place schedule, and while two teams in the AFC South made the playoffs last season, let’s not pretend for a second that the Houston Texans look like anything other than a potential disaster coming into next season. If the Colts don’t leap up and take that empty playoff slot, the Titans could, by virtue of 10 games against teams that posted losing records in 2025. A lot of coaches need to win 12 games to get that Coach of the Year selection on this list. Saleh can do it in Tennessee with nine and an AFC Wild Card berth as a seven seed.

Plus, like Stefanski and Vrabel this past season, giving Saleh the award this year would be just one more way to punish the New York Jets, his former team. And NFL writers love to do that, especially those based in New York.

Follow Adam Greene on Blue Sky @AdamGreene13, threads @adam.greene and Twitter @TheFirstMan