5 BEST LONG SHOT 2026 NFC & AFC CHAMPION BETS

We all know who the favorites are heading into the 2026 offseason, but that doesn’t mean those teams will be left standing when the dust settles in February 2027. Indeed, I don’t think many of us saw the Seattle Seahawks, after missing the playoffs in 2025, and the New England Patriots, coming off a four-win season, making the Big Game, but here we are. 

Now, if you want to slide some cash on the Seahawks repeating as NFC Champs at +475 or the Buffalo Bills finally getting over the hump at +500, I can’t blame you. Those are solid selections on the NFC Champions Bets, but as I wrote earlier, if you’d bet the favorites this past season, all you would have done was watch your money fly away once Super Bowl LX kicked off.

Nah, we’re trying to pick this season’s Seahawks and Pats. Here are my best guesses on who those teams could be.

5. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +1800

2025: 8-9, Did Not Make the Playoffs

Thanks to my lifelong enemy, math, the Bucs barely missed the postseason thanks to some ridiculous tiebreakers and the Atlanta Falcons, who finished with the same 8-9 record as the Bucs and the NFC South Champion Carolina Panthers, but were out of the playoff running all of December. The Falcons basically knocked them out of the bracket by beating the New Orleans Saints in Week 18. And, honestly, I don’t care enough to research how the math made that happen. I just know it did. 

So why do I like the Buccaneers here? Baker Mayfield was injured in the latter half of the season and that pretty much cost Tampa Bay the division and any playoff run. While the Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams were the two best teams in football in 2025, the gap between them and everyone else wasn’t huge. A healthy Tampa Bay team getting into the postseason is just as dangerous as anybody.

4. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +1800

2025: 8-9, Did Not Make the Playoffs

A more significant QB injury knocked the Colts completely out of contention last season when Daniel Jones ruptured his Achilles in Week 14. Jones probably won’t be 100 percent when the season starts, but by the time the playoff run begins, he could be fully back. What people forget is that Indianapolis is a loaded team with one of the best rosters in the league. It’s why, with even competent quarterback play from Jones, they looked like the best team in the AFC in September and October. 

Again, I feel like the league is pretty compressed. A couple of key injuries here or there, and a team gets hot, as Seattle did in December and January, and it’s anybody’s Vince Lombardi. The Colts have a squad that can do it.

3. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +1000

2025: 13-4, Lost to the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Wild Card Round

The Jags not only won the AFC South last season but were a play or two away from knocking off the Bills and earning a trip to Denver to take on the Broncos, a team they beat outright by two touchdowns just a few weeks before. The truth is, if Jacksonville had found another three points against the Bills, there’s every reason to believe they would have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl this year.

Jacksonville should be better in 2026. Trevor Lawrence will be in his second year in Liam Coen’s offense, and, maybe most importantly for the defense, Travis Hunter will be back from injury and focusing on that side of the ball.

2. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +900

2025: 12-5, Lost to the Seattle Seahawks in the Divisional Round

Let me paint you a picture of a San Francisco 49ers team with half the squad on injured reserve and their best receiver completely AWOL. That’s the team that put up the third best record in the NFC in 2025. 

Sure, they have to find another receiver weapon, break in a fresh defensive coordinator and have some good luck, but the Niners were that close this season in spite of fielding a bunch of Subway Sandwich Artists and Fudrucker’s Grillmasters on defense. With Joey Bosa and the crew back, they should be much more formidable. And it’s something to be said that the only teams that knocked NFC West squads out of the playoffs in 2025 were other NFC West teams. And they all split with each other in the regular season.

1. CINCINNATI BENGALS +1400

2025: 6-11. Did Not Make the Playoffs

We all know what the problems are with the Bengals; they need to upgrade their offensive line, need a decent running back, and an actual NFL defense. The good news is, two of those are actually easy to fix. Cincinnati doesn’t have to be world beaters on defense with their offensive weapons. They just need to be competent. That, of course, must come with some investment from Mike Brow,n and that seems to be a recurring problem. 

But Joe Burrow has made it clear that he’s not going to stick with a loser organization for much longer, regardless of what they’re paying him. Now, could he pull a Matthew Stafford (after Stafford retires) and force a trade to greener pastures, specifically the Rams? Well, I hope so, as I am a Rams fan and would much rather replace Stafford with Burrow than whatever college QB manages to fall to LA at the bottom of the draft. 

I have a lot of derogatory thoughts about Brown as an owner and even more as a general manager, but a middle schooler playing Madden can see what needs to be done here to put the Bengals on a Super Bowl track in a very down AFC. It’ll cost money, but the return could be an actual Super Bowl Championship. Or, at the very least, a second appearance. 

Follow Adam Greene on Blue Sky @AdamGreene13, threads @adam.greene and Twitter @TheFirstMan