8 Legitimate 2026 Calder Trophy Candidates

For another straight year, we’re staring down a Calder Trophy race without a generational savior walking through the door. No Connor McDavid. No Connor Bedard. Not even a Cale Makar-level sure thing ready to redefine a position from day one. Instead, the 2026 rookie class offers something far more interesting for anyone who actually watches hockey beyond the highlight packages: legitimate uncertainty, positional diversity, and a dozen plausible paths to silverware.

The conventional wisdom says Ivan Demidov runs away with it because Montreal will feed him minutes and pray he justifies their patience. That’s not wrong, exactly, but it ignores the structural reality staring us in the face. This is an unusually deep defensive class where at least three blue-liners project into top-four roles immediately, and recent history tells us voters absolutely love a defenseman who can drive offense while eating heavy minutes.

Here’s what the odds won’t tell you: the gap between Demidov’s runway and the chaos behind him is narrower than the bookmakers want you to believe. I’m going to walk you through nine legitimate contenders, explain why their prices make sense or hide value, and point you toward the narratives that could swing voters when ballots drop next spring. Let’s start with the obvious favorite and work our way toward the chaos.

Ivan Demidov, RW, Montreal (+170): The Favorite With One Glaring Vulnerability

Ivan Demidov is the odds-on choice for a reason, and pretending otherwise would be dishonest. The kid has elite hands and the kind of deceptive puck skills that make defenders commit to shadows. He already logged playoff minutes as a teenager in the KHL, which means he’s tasted high-leverage hockey when most North American nineteen-year-olds are grinding through junior playoffs. If Montreal slots him next to Nick Dach and Patrik Laine on the scoring line and gives him first power-play touches, the box score will absolutely hum. That’s a 65 to 70 point runway, and in a year without a generational talent, that might be enough to coast.

But here’s the thing nobody’s saying out loud in Montreal: teenage wingers carry variance that defensemen and centers don’t. If Montreal’s coaching staff decides to shelter Demidov at five-on-five early or bumps him to the second power-play unit while veterans get priority, those stats evaporate faster than your optimism during a Leafs playoff series. We’ve seen it happen before with hyped European imports who needed time to adjust to North American ice, tighter checking, and the relentless pace of an 82-game grind. Demidov has all the tools to justify his price, but he’s not the lock the sportsbooks want you to believe. The smart play here isn’t fading Demidov outright because his ceiling is real and his situation is legitimately favorable. The smart play is recognizing that a +170 price on a rookie winger in a wide-open year leaves almost no room for error, and hockey has a funny way of punishing assumptions. 

Zeev Buium, D, Minnesota (+1200): The Blue-Line Sculptor

If you’ve watched the Calder Trophy race over the past five years, you’ve noticed something: voters absolutely love defensemen who drive offense through transition and make their teammates better without needing to dominate the scoresheet. Moritz Seider won in 2022 by being a minutes-eating, two-way force. Cale Makar redefined what a rookie defenseman could be. Lane Hutson just captured hardware in 2025 by quarterbacking a power play and piling up primary assists. Zeev Buium is cut from that exact cloth, and Minnesota found themselves a modern puck-mover who could crash this race if the usage breaks even slightly in his favor.

Buium’s calling card is his east-to-west vision that turns Minnesota’s breakouts into controlled entries and generates secondary assists like a factory line. He’s projected to start in a top-four role alongside Jonas Brodin, and even if he begins on the second power-play unit, that ice time matters. The Wild signaled their confidence in him by staying quiet in the left-handed defenseman market this summer, which tells you everything about their internal projections. If Buium keeps even a slice of power-play time and Minnesota’s offense clicks, the drumbeat for a defenseman winner gets loud in a hurry.

The risk, of course, is the rookie defenseman leash that every young blue-liner faces. If Minnesota’s coaching staff shelters him with offensive-zone starts and keeps him glued to the second power-play unit, his ceiling narrows to 30 to 35 points and a bunch of impressive advanced metrics that don’t translate to voter love. But at +1200, you’re not betting on perfection. 

Zayne Parekh, D, Calgary (+1800): The Goal-Scoring Unicorn 

Let me say this plainly: defensemen don’t score 33 goals in back-to-back OHL seasons. It doesn’t happen. Offensive blue-liners pile up assists, sure, but goal-scoring from the point at that volume is historically rare, and Zayne Parekh did it twice before his twentieth birthday. That’s not a fluke. That’s a toolkit, and if Calgary hands him first power-play minutes, he becomes the chaos candidate who could legitimately be leading this race by New Year’s Day.

The Flames are in a weird spot developmentally. Parekh is too young for the AHL, which means he’s either playing in the NHL or going back to junior, and Calgary already let him taste NHL speed in his debut. He’ll start as a third or fourth defenseman at five-on-five, but the power-play deployment is the unlock. If the coaching staff trusts him to quarterback the first unit, that historic OHL goal-scoring translates into the exact kind of highlight-reel offense that voters notice. The risk is obvious: Calgary might slow-walk his development, park him on the second power-play unit, and cap his counting stats in favor of veteran stability. That’s the smart organizational move, but it murders his Calder chances. At +1800, though, you’re getting compensated for that uncertainty. You pair Parekh with Buium and Alexander Nikishin to cover the defenseman lane, and if any of them break through with heavy power-play usage, you’re cashing a ticket. 

Alexander Nikishin, D, Carolina (+1600): The KHL Captain 

Alexander Nikishin isn’t your typical teenage prospect learning on the job. The dude captained a KHL team, logged heavy minutes in playoff hockey, and then got thrown directly into Carolina’s postseason fire like it was just another Tuesday. He posted 17 goals and 46 points in his final KHL season, which tells you he’s not some defensive specialist hoping to chip in offense. He’s a two-way hammer who can drive play at both ends, and Carolina has the minutes available after shedding veteran blue-liners this summer. If the Hurricanes trust him with top-pair usage, we’re looking at a 40-plus point, physically dominant rookie year that checks every box voters care about.

Carolina’s usage patterns are the only real question mark here. The Hurricanes famously spread minutes across their defensive pairings and operate as an offense-by-committee system, which could cap Nikishin’s counting stats even if his overall impact is elite. But if Carolina’s young core tilts the ice more often this season and Nikishin locks down a top-pair role with power-play time, he’s absolutely in the conversation.

At +1600, the price reflects the usage uncertainty more than the talent. Nikishin is minutes-ready, playoff-tested, and carrying the exact two-way toolkit that wins Calder Trophies when defensemen make noise. 

Jimmy Snuggerud, RW, St. Louis (+1400): The Shoot-First Winger 

Jimmy Snuggerud has one elite NHL skill right now, besides his nickname abundant last name,  his shot translates at NHL speed and is electric. The kid can absolutely rip it, and if St. Louis parks him next to Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou on a scoring line, that release becomes a legitimate weapon. Thomas is one of the league’s more underrated playmakers, the kind of center who creates shooting lanes for wingers who know how to attack space. Snuggerud knows how to attack space. That’s the foundation of a 25 to 30 goal season if the power-play minutes follow.

The Blues are projecting Snuggerud into a top-six role, and his strong NCAA finish carried into the playoffs where his shot volume translated immediately. That’s not a small thing. Snuggerud already proved he can generate dangerous looks against NHL goaltending, which means the adjustment period might be shorter than people expect. If he locks down a first power-play flank, he’s your top non-defenseman value play in this entire field.

Snuggerud is a steam candidate if the role clarity arrives early, and the odds haven’t fully adjusted to his situation yet.

Ryan Leonard, W, Washington (+1600): The Power Forward

Ryan Leonard is the kind of player coaches trust and voters notice, which is a dangerous combination in a Calder Trophy race. He’s a power forward who can score from all three levels, plays with an agitator’s edge that drives opponents crazy, and already tasted NHL playoff speed in nine regular-season and eight postseason games last year. He posted 30 goals in 37 games at Boston College, which tells you the offensive toolkit is real. If Washington parks him in the top six with power-play time, his goal-scoring profile becomes exactly the kind of voter-friendly narrative that carries weight.

The Capitals need Leonard to hit. They’re retooling around a younger core, and a goal-scoring winger who can play a physical brand of hockey fits their identity perfectly. Leonard’s game isn’t finesse-based. He scores by attacking the net, winning battles in the dirty areas, and converting chances that require a certain level of meanness. That style plays in Washington, and it plays with voters who love rookies that bring energy and production. If he sticks in the top six and maintains power-play minutes, 25 to 28 goals is absolutely in range, and that’s a live ticket in a year without a runaway favorite.

The downside is usage uncertainty and the Capitals’ overall offensive ceiling. Washington isn’t an offensive juggernaut, which means Leonard’s counting stats are somewhat capped by team context. But at +1600, you’re betting on a scenario where Leonard forces his way into bigger minutes and becomes the goal-scoring story that dominates highlight packages.

Artyom Levshunov, D, Chicago (+2800): The Two-Way Pillar

Artyom Levshunov isn’t going to win the Calder Trophy with flashy offense or power-play quarterbacking. That’s not his game. But if Chicago’s young core takes a developmental leap this season and the Blackhawks start tilting the ice more often, Levshunov’s two-way toolkit could generate exactly the kind of counting stats and underlying metrics that make him a dark horse candidate. He’s projected for 19-plus minutes a night, penalty-kill responsibilities, and second power-play reps. That’s a massive workload for a rookie defenseman, and if Chicago’s pace and transition game improve, he’ll stack peripherals like blocked shots, hits, and ice time that models absolutely love.

If Connor Bedard takes another leap, if Kevin Korchinski and other young pieces start clicking, and if the Blackhawks become a more competitive team, Levshunov becomes the defensive anchor who benefits from better team context. His price reflects skepticism about Chicago’s readiness, but that’s exactly where value hides. At +2800, you’re getting a minutes-eating, two-way defenseman who could surprise if the underlying team metrics improve. That’s a classic early buy with cash-out equity if the points start popping.

Matthew Schaefer, D, NY Islanders (+1600): The People’s Choice

Matthew Schaefer carries first-overall-pick buzz and the kind of foundational-piece narrative that voters absolutely eat up. His transition game is elite, the kind of skating and puck-moving toolkit that screams modern defenseman in the Quinn Hughes mold. The Islanders’ blue line opened up after the Noah Dobson trade, which theoretically creates a top-four lane for Schaefer to step into immediately. If he gets those minutes and the narrative stays hot, he’s got the profile to make noise in this race.

But here’s the reality check: Schaefer played only 19 games last season due to a collarbone injury, and the Islanders might not rush him even if the talent is undeniable. A nine-game trial is plausible given his injury-limited recent track record, and if New York decides development trumps immediate deployment, Schaefer’s Calder chances evaporate before Halloween. 

At +1600, Schaefer is better positioned as a long-hold narrative ticket than a core portfolio piece. If he gets heavy minutes and the transition chops translate immediately, he could absolutely crash the top three. But if the Islanders slow-walk his development or cap his ice time early, you’re holding a worthless slip.

The Wild Cards: Goalies, Depth Defenders, and McDavid’s New Toys

Let me rapid-fire through five more names that could crash the party if circumstances break perfectly:

Yaroslav Askarov (+2200): is your goalie lottery ticket. If he steals San Jose’s crease and posts top-ten goals-saved-above-average numbers on a high-workload team, the goalie drought for Calder hardware could finally end. He posted a .923 save percentage with four shutouts in 22 AHL games, and the Sharks will absolutely let him face volume. That’s asymmetric upside if the stars align, but goalie variance makes this a low-stake flyer only.

Sam Rinzel (+4000): is your penny-stock blue-liner. Chicago already gave him 20 to 27 minutes in his nine-game cup of coffee, and if that usage sticks, the price is wildly wrong. 

Isaac Howard (1400) and Matthew Savoie (+2800): are the Edmonton wild cards. If either one gets stapled to Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl on the power play, their prices rocket overnight. Watch early deployment closely, because riding shotgun with generational centers can turn a middle-six winger into a 60-point surprise.

Easton Cowan (+4000): Easton Cowan wasn’t supposed to be in this conversation yet. The 2024 OHL MVP and Memorial Cup champion was penciled in for an AHL development year while Toronto’s roster squeeze played out naturally. Then Mitch Marner walked, and suddenly the Maple Leafs have a gaping hole in their top six that requires exactly the skill package Cowan brings: elite playmaking vision, power-play instincts, and the same undersized-but-dominant profile that made Marner a star in the first place. If Toronto’s coaching staff decides they can’t afford to wait and hands Cowan legitimate top-six minutes with power-play access, we’re talking about a 50-point surprise that rockets him into legitimate contention. High risk, high reward play because he can absolutely end up in AHL to start the year.

Bottom Line: Spread Your Bets and Watch Early Usage Like a Hawk

Here’s what I know for certain: this Calder Trophy race will be decided by special teams deployment, early-season injury luck, and coaching decisions that have nothing to do with the odds board you’re staring at right now. Ivan Demidov is the favorite for legitimate reasons, but a +170 price on a teenage winger leaves zero margin for error. The value lives in the defenseman tier, where Zeev Buium, Zayne Parekh, and Alexander Nikishin all have plausible paths to hardware if the minutes break right. Jimmy Snuggerud and Ryan Leonard are your forward hedges if you want goal-scoring upside without paying the Demidov tax.

So here’s my question for you: which player are you riding, and more importantly, which deployment decision are you watching in the first two weeks to know if your ticket is still alive? Because in a year without a sure thing, the smart money isn’t just picking a horse. It’s knowing when to cash out or double down before the field figures it out.