Friday Afternoon Quarterback: NFL Week 4

It’s been a rocky start to the season here at stately Greene Manor. At work in the Greene cave, I’ve done a terrific job at picking the winners, but the spreads have put me in quite the pickle. You see, usually in the first few weeks of the season the spreads are off. Everyone is trying to figure out who’s good, who’s bad, who’s historically bad and who’s fooling everyone with a hot start (I’m looking at you, Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks). And we’ve had that. What we haven’t experienced is the handicappers whiffing on the spreads. 

In years past, underdogs have been the early play and it’s worked out well financially for everyone tossing in a few doubloons. Not this year. Even when it feels like you can’t lose, like you went with the Los Angeles Rams +3.5 last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Rams are lining up for a game-winning field goal and you (or, you know, me) are sitting there with your expert pick knowing that even if the Rams miss the kick, you will still get a nice new bulge in your wallet as the Eagles held a one-point lead at the time. 

The kick was blocked and as a Rams fan, I was devastated, but still felt OK about it as LA’s special teams foibles had not cost me my payout. Until Jordan Davis, all 336 pounds of him, scooped up the blocked kick and set a new fat guy land speed record, disappeared in a cloud of fire streaks to go back in time and get Marty McFly’s parents back together and punch Biff Tannen in the face, before reappearing in the end zone for a scoop and score and, much worse, a cover. 

As Captain Jean Luc Picard once said, “It’s possible to commit no mistakes and still lose. That is not weakness. That is life.”

Or as another wise man once told his student, “The greatest teacher, failure is,” Yeah. That was Yoda. And if you’re wondering why I’ve quoted Star Trek and Star Wars instead of the thousands of inspirational quotes given by real historical figures, all I can say is, “Welcome to The FAQ. This is how we roll, here.”

SUNDAY

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+2.5, O/U: 40.5)

For all of you who thought Carson Wentz would send JJ McCarthy back to the sidelines to catch Pokémon on his Microsoft Surface tablet in the first month of the season, congratulations. I never knew what anyone saw in JJ McCarthy unless it was a Hall of Fame level handoff ability. Sure, he looked good in the fourth quarter against the “checks notes” Chicago Bears in Week 1 but fell back to earth harder than James Corden trying to fight off a seagull that’s stealing his ice cream cone. 

As for the Steelers, though 2-1, they’ve been a disappointment as Aaron Rodgers has yet to unleash his full brainworm in any postgame or midweek rant about cow poop-flavored raw milk. Can you get Ivermectin in Dublin?  Steelers 27, Vikings 24

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+3.5, O/U: 43.5)

The Eagles finally decided to play NFL offense last week in the second half against the Rams and it worked out alright for them, if not for me. Here’s a fun fact, do you know who the last team was to beat Philadelphia when Jalen Hurts started and completed a game? It was the Buccaneers led by the Dread Pirate Baker Mayfield himself last season. 

Philly may go back to the Super Bowl and if you’re ranking teams now, they’re easily the favorite, but they’re not going undefeated. Last week was a tough game and they got beat up. I think Baker gets them again. Bucs 24, Eagles 21

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT BUFFALO BILLS (-15.5, O/U: 47.5)

Imagine being a Saints fan. And since I’ve never met one in real life, I’ll definitely have to play pretend here. And you’re sitting there with, without question, the worst team in the NFL with the worst roster, but there is hope. You know that when you inevitably lock down the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft there he’ll sit, ready to save your franchise in a way his grandpa never could. 

Yes, the chosen one, the heir, Arch Manning, would be yours and a whole new winning era of Saints football would be on the horizon. Except Arch didn’t play along and is performing less like Arch “Manning” and more like Arch “Maniamaleava.” It’s a long season and he’s a young guy and probably should stay in school another year as his papaw predicted over the summer. But none to fear, New Orleans. I’m sure you’ll suck again in 2026.

As for the Bills, let’s be real. This is their year. If they don’t at least make it to the Super Bowl, it’s a disaster. Bills 41, Saints 13

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-5, O/U: 43)

Ah Panthers, nothing like playing a fellow NFC South team to fix what ails ya. If the Saints are the worst team in the league, there’s a good chance that the Panthers are a solid Metamucil infused No. 2. 

You know who might be No. 3? The Patriots. I, for one, was not fooled into thinking New England, under the tutelage of Mike Vrable, would immediately become a contender in his first year. New England has so many holes in its roster it’s developing a real raccoon problem and when Drake May is your leading rusher after three weeks with a total of 87 yards and has your only rushing touchdown, maybe that Vrabel toughness got left in Nashville. Pats 20, Panthers 17

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS AT ATLANTA FALCONS (pk, O/U: 45.5)

Back in the summer a tv station covering the Falcons had an embarrassing faux pas when it identified Atlanta’s quarterback as “Michael Penis, Jr.” It was a humiliating moment for not only the QB, the station and the franchise, but also his father, Michael Penis, Sr. 

Jayden Daniels has practiced this week, but his gametime status is still up in the air. If he doesn’t go, Marcus Mariota will and I think that’ll be more than enough to tuck away Penix and the Falcons at home. Commanders 34, Falcons 20

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT DETROIT LIONS (-10, O/U: 44)

The Browns weathered their offseason move of drafting Shadeur Sanders in the fifth round by just being terrible again, as is their way. Shadeur helped out by playing ugly enough in his final preseason outing that his game tape showed up under my “Most Compatible” on Hinge. Cleveland got its win. It’ll probably get three more this season thanks to an elite defense, but it’s not happening Sunday.

As for the Lions, I feel like the “Jared Goof” nickname for Jared Goff is lazy. And while I’m all for the “layups still count for two” version of comedy, I’m not going down that road. No “Jared Goof” for me. It helps that he played well last week, as he does every other week since his second season with the Rams. This is the off week where he goes from Jared Goff to Jared Goob (nailed it!) and I feel like that will show up on the scoreboard, but not in the win-loss column. Lions 23, Browns 20

TENNESSEE TITANS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (-7, O/U: 38.5)

I think we all pretty much figured the Titans would be 0-3 right here, but no one expected the Texans to be equally winless after taking the AFC South two years in a row and, not only that, winning their opening round playoff games as well. Did they let Bill O’Brien back into the building? Who was in charge of zero-ing out his key card? 

Normally when two teams face off  with these records and a line like this, you take the dog, but I feel as if Houston will want to take out some frustrations on Tennessee Sunday like they’re playing their little brother on Mario Kart. Texans 34, Titans 13

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT NEW YORK GIANTS (+6.5, O/U: 44)

Let me draw your attention to the real battle we’re all looking forward to Sunday. Camera shots of Madison Beer vs Jaxson Dart’s hot mom. It’s the kind of attractive female crowd shot lineup that would have Brent Musberger humping his headset. 

For those of you who think Beer wins in a landslide, I invite you to Google Dart’s mater familias and I’m guessing you’ll be like me and let it be settled by who’s wearing the tighter tank top on Sunday. 

As for the game, this is a tough draw for Jax. But it’s a long trip for Justin Herbert and the boys and they’ll probably be more than happy to just get out of there with the dub. Chargers 23, Giants 16

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3, O/U: 47)

While no one’s surprised that the Niners opened the year with a perfect record, what is perplexing is that they’ve done it without pretty much every starting player on their offense. Add to that losing Nick Bosa to a torn ACL and the San Francisco treat we were expecting has turned into a San Francisco trick. 

The Jaguars are 2-1, mostly thanks to playing other AFC South teams. The 49ers have also not played any real opponents and, yes, that’s a dig on the Cards and Seahawks. The fact that every single game, including one against the hapless Saints, has gone down to the wire has me thinking upset here. Jaguars 27, 49ers 20

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3.5, O/U: 49.5)

For years, I have been a Danny Dimes guy. If you play fantasy football, he’s rarely let you down. It’s on Sundays in the real NFL where there seems to be a problem. But talent never appeared to be the issue with the new Indiana Jones and maybe we all thought a little too highly of future former New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll. The Colts have looked really good and, frankly, could be the second or third best team in the AFC. 

As for the Rams, they gifted the Eagles a game that could hang on the schedule all season as both teams battle for home field advantage in the playoffs. I certainly don’t think LA wants to play in the snow again in January, but I also didn’t get two kicks blocked that would have iced the game away last Sunday. I like the Rams, but not the line. Los Angeles had a slobberknocker against Philly last week and it’s not one you get over in seven days. Rams 27, Colts 24

CHICAGO BEARS AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (pk, O/U: 48)

The good news for the Raiders here is that Tom Brady won’t be in the coaches’ box as he will be doing color for a Fox game. Which is probably bad news for whoever is watching that game. Seeing Tom Brady finally suck at something has been a real joy for a longtime hater like myself. 

This is the pick-em of all pick-ems, but I do like Vegas and for Ashton Jenty to finally get some real tread on his tires against the Chicago defense. Raiders 20, Bears 17 

BALTIMORE RAVENS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+2.5, O/U: 48.5)

I think we need to talk about Lamar Jackson’s choice to go with the Sideshow Bob haircut this season for no other reason that it always jars me every time they show him sitting dejected on the sidelines after a Derrick Henry drive-killing fumble. 

Here’s the real NFL thing to realize with Kansas City. Since 2018, they’ve either made it to the Super Bowl or to the AFC Championship. That is an entire extra season of football on the legs, arms and hands of their key players and this appears to be the year it shows up on the scoreboard. I’m not ready to say KC isn’t making the playoffs again this year, but it’s going to be as a Wild Card. Ravens 27, Chiefs 23

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT DALLAS COWBOYS (+6.5, O/U: 47)

It’s the Micah Parsons revenge game we’ve all had circled until last week when the Pack soiled the bedsheets against Cleveland, who, luckily, have an endorsement deal with Dude Wipes this season. 

Dallas looks very much like we expected, an offense that can move the ball and a defense that couldn’t stop a toddler on a tricycle. Packers 31, Cowboys 27

SUNDAY NIGHT

NEW YORK JETS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3, O/U: 45)

Here’s what I don’t understand. When Aaron Rodgers was the Jets’ quarterback, it made sense that the NFL would schedule them in prime time games. But this was going to be Justin Fields, if everything went right, from the start. Do they think Aaron Glenn is that much of a draw? Is he an upgrade over Robert Salah? Maybe, as I’ve yet to see Fields push him out of his face on the sideline. 

I can’t get over how sad Mike McDaniel has looked all through the offseason and now. I’ve never wanted to give a guy a hug, pat on the back and hair tussle more than when I see this poor slob in his droopy sweatpants try to make sense of what his team is doing any given week at the podium. Not everybody is made to be a head coach. McDaniel is a great offensive mind and my one hope is, once he’s canned, he doesn’t end up back in San Francisco. Dolphins 20, Jets 16

MONDAY NIGHT

CINCINNATI BENGALS AT DENVER BRONCOS (-7.5, O/U: 44)

While we can all complain about the Jets-Dolphins Sunday nightery, no one can blame the NFL for this Monday night debacle. Troy Aikman’s going to wish he could get reverse lasik when he sees this sure to be instant classic QB duel between Bo Nix and Jake Browning. 

I kept hearing all offseason how the Broncos were going to be a sleeper team this year. Meanwhile every time I see them play I just want to take a nap. 

Cincy’s season ended the second Joe Burrow’s foot folded like a Gordita in Week 2. Sure, he could be back before the season officially wraps up, but what I really want him to do is start studying the Rams roster for the potential post Matt Stafford trade Sean McVay and Les Snead are already prepping. Broncos 20, Bengals 17

Last Week

Straight up: 9-7

Against the spread: 4-12

Season

Straight up: 34-14

Against the spread: 21-27

Survivor Pool Picks: Broncos (Week 1), Ravens (Week 2), Bucs (Week 3), Bills (Week 4)

Follow Adam Greene on Blue Sky @AdamGreene13, threads @adam.greene and Twitter @TheFirstMan