CRAZY NFL PARLAY: WEEK 4
Summary
Each week, a “Crazy NFL Parlay” is crafted by analyzing spreads and totals to create a high-reward betting ticket. This week’s selections include the Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Buffalo Bills, and Jacksonville Jaguars to win their games outright, while also picking the Cleveland Browns to cover a +10 point spread against the Detroit Lions. Further underdog choices are the Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, and Dallas Cowboys.
The reasoning suggests the Lions may struggle after an emotional win, the Colts’ offense is potent, and the Chiefs at home are always a threat. While risky, this combination of outcomes presents a significant potential payout. A $10 wager on this specific parlay could return nearly $19,000 if all picks are correct.
It’s that wonderful time of the week again where we take the money you’d gladly fork over at a Drive Thru for a fully loaded Baconator meal and magically turn it into 2025 Bass Tracker Classic with a 50 ELPT FourStroke Mercury engine.
If this is your first foray into the Crazy NFL Parlay, let me explain what we do. Each week I peruse the spreads, lines, and totals to artisanally handcraft for you the perfect football-related lottery ticket that will justify every single gambling choice you make for the rest of your life.
This isn’t just taking plus moneylines and stacking them up, hoping for the best. Oh no. I use actual science, or an approximation of, and dive in to not just pick results we hope might happen, but a series of very fortunate events that actually could happen.
Now, you may use these recommendations to build your own, less crazy parlays and I get that. But let me invite you to do what I did a year ago when a woman I was about start dating asked me my exact birth time and date — lean into the crazy. Sure, it could all blow up spectacularly, but you can have a lot of fun before that happens.
And in this case, not get stabbed. I can’t say the same thing about my dating life.
Here’s what I’ve concocted for you this week;
Pittsburgh Steelers (+120)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+125)
Buffalo Bills (-1500)
Carolina Panthers (+192)
Browns -10 (-110)
Jaguars (+155)
Colts (+165)
Chiefs (+125)
Cowboys (+263)
Alright. If you’ve already looked over my Friday Afternoon Quarterback column (and you should. Go ahead. This will be here when you get back), then you know I already like the Steelers to upset the Minnesota Vikings in Dublin, Ireland, while Aaron Rodgers makes the most of that socialized medicine priced Hydroxychloroquine. I think the Bucs will keep the Philadelphia Eagles from going 17-0 because Baker Mayfield will pick something on that team to hate on and, as a true hater myself, I can always respect that.
We have to toss the Bills in here as they host the New Orleans Saints because if you don’t put the Bills moneyline in any parlay this week, you’re just taking money away from yourself. And, lastly, I like the Jaguars to go into Santa Clara and defeat the desiccated remains of whatever team the San Francisco 49ers manage to put out onto the field.
Here are the games we have to talk ourselves into;
I would love to grab that Browns moneyline (+400) and put it in this, but that’s not the rules. The rules are I must pick things I actually think could happen and what I do think could happen is the Browns cover +10 against a Detroit Lions team coming in high off a Monday night win over the Baltimore Ravens. That’s a short week of practice and a tough team to play, emotionally. Jared Goff seems to turn into a pumpkin every other week and since he’s stacked up two good weeks after opening the season dropping a gourd against the Green Bay Packers, he’s due. Also, this Browns team shut down a Pack squad that ate Detroit’s lunch and popped the bag in their faces just a couple of weeks ago. Lions win, but not by 10.
This one hurts, literally Jalen Hurts. The Los Angeles Rams should be coming into this game with the Colts at 3-0, but they let Hurts hurt them all second half last week and had two blocked field goals that would have sealed the win. It was a tough game where both teams got beat up. Meanwhile, the Colts have punted one time all season. Once. I think they’re for real.
The aforementioned Ravens are coming in off a short week and a last second hearbreaker loss. The Kansas City Chiefs are fighting for their season at every turn. The game is in Arrowhead and who would be shocked to see Patrick Mahomes do Patrick Mahomes things in this AFC Championship game rematch?
And finally, the Cowboys have offensive playmakers and they’re playing on prime time. Yes, this could be a Micah Parson’s revenge game for the Green Bay Packers, but that fall back to Earth was pretty rough for the Pack last week. If it’s a shootout, you have to give Dallas a puncher’s chance.
A $10 parlay bet on these spreads and moneylines pays $18,834.16.
Follow Adam Greene on Blue Sky @AdamGreene13, threads @adam.greene and Twitter @TheFirstMan
