Understanding the Point Spread

There are multiple ways to bet on sports, but there’s no question that the most popular method of betting on sports is through point spread betting. As previously discussed in our Beginner’s Guide to Sports Betting, this is the type of betting you see most often at sportsbooks and in media, so it’s important to understand what a point spread is and how to read it.

The sports with the most prevalent examples of point spread betting are football and basketball. Soccer, baseball, and hockey are all lower scoring games, so instead they have either goal line betting or run line betting.

Point spreads are used in order for sportsbooks to offer relatively even lines on games. Many bettors don’t want to lay a lot of juice on a big favorite or take a big risk on a moneydog, but they will be happy to either give or take the points. When it comes to point spread betting, the favorite will be listed as -points, while the underdog will be listed as +points.

Point Spread Betting in Football

Examples are the best way to understand a concept, so let’s set up a hypothetical football game between the Green Bay Packers and the New Orleans Saints. If Green Bay was seen as slightly better than New Orleans and the game was at the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, the Packers could be favored by 4.5 points against the Saints.

In this instance, Green Bay would need to win by AT LEAST five points in order for a bet on the Packers to pay out. As Green Bay is a 4.5-point favorite in this scenario, you have to subtract 4.5 points from their final total to find out whether or not they covered the spread. If the Packers were to win 24-17, that would be a cover and a win for Green Bay bettors as the Packers won by more than 4.5 points. However, if the Packers were to win by a score of 24-20, Green Bay point spread bets would lose as the team did not win by (cover) more than 4.5 points.

People who bet on the underdog to cover the point spread will win their wager if either the underdog wins the game or stays within the number. In the example above, New Orleans is a 4.5-point underdog. If the Saints win the game outright, then they will cover the spread. Additionally, if they lose by four or fewer points, they will cover the spread too. However, if Green Bay wins by five or more points, then New Orleans will have failed to cover the point spread and bets on the Saints will be losers.

Key Numbers

Since touchdowns and field goals are by far the most common ways to score in football, there are key numbers to be mindful of in football games. More games end with a team winning by 3 points than any other final score, as there are dozens of instances of teams winning with late field goals every season.

This means that 3 is the most important number in football. Many games will have a point spread of 3 points, and a lot of bettors will try to move off 3 in order to win their bets. A bettor looking at playing the favorite in this case might attempt to either shop to find the favorite listed at -2.5 or pay a little extra vig in order to get the number down to -2.5. Conversely, bettors looking at the underdog might try to find a price of +3.5 or buy a half-point to move the line to +3.5.

While 3 is definitely the most important number in football, there are other key numbers. The next most likely final margins of victory are 7, 6, and 10 points. The number 4 used to be considered a key number too, but it has decreased significantly in importance since extra points stopped being chip shots in 2015. Now, the ball is placed at the 15-yard line for extra points whereas before it was previously placed at the 2-yard line. That has made extra points trickier for kickers to make, resulting in less intervals of 3 and 7 points and therefore reducing the value of some key numbers.

It’s crucial to keep in mind that there are pushes with point spread betting. If the Buffalo Bills are -3 against the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo ends up winning by a field goal, then Buffalo -3 and Miami +3 are both considered pushes. In this case, neither bet wins or loses, but instead the initial wager is simply returned to your account. 

Point Spread Betting in Basketball

There has been an explosion in basketball betting as the NBA has become the second-most popular league in the United States. If you are unfamiliar with basketball point spread betting, you might think that the lines are much higher than they are in the NFL since basketball games are much higher scoring than football games. However, professional teams are relatively close in talent, so it’s uncommon to see a point spread of more than 13 or 14 points in the NBA.

Since teams can score in increments of 1, 2, and 3 points, there aren’t really any key numbers in basketball. Some final margins of victory tend to be a little more prevalent, but not significantly so like we see in football.

Let’s consider another example to highlight point spread betting in basketball. If the New York Knicks were considered significantly better than the Charlotte Hornets and were playing at home in Madison Square Garden, we might see them as an 8.5-point favorite on the point spread. In this instance, the Knicks would need to win by AT LEAST 9 points in order to cover the spread. A win of 8 or fewer points or an outright Knicks loss would mean that the Hornets covered the spread. 

Home Field Advantage

Home field advantage is a pivotal factor when calculating point spreads. It’s no secret that teams play better at home, and some teams have better fanbases and crowds than other teams. That leads to sportsbooks factoring in a significant boost for home teams. Typically, the rule of thumb in football is that home teams get an extra 3 points on the point spread, but there are instances where the home field advantage can be as high as 4.5 points. This is more often the case in college football than the NFL since the college crowds are more boisterous, but places like Green Bay and Pittsburgh have formidable home field advantages.

In basketball, home field advantage is typically considered to be 3.5 points. However, as is the case with college football compared to the NFL, college basketball has some arenas where the home field advantage is considered more significant than the NBA. Places with a rich basketball heritage like Duke, Kansas, and Kentucky have home field advantages that can add as many as 6 points to a game, as these fanbases and venues can have an outsized impact on officiating.