MLB Best Bets – Thursday October 9th, 2025

Thursday night sets the stage for two MLB elimination games—each with its own script, tone, and tension.

At Wrigley Field, the Brewers are one win away from advancing, sending ace Freddy Peralta to the mound against a Cubs team that’s hanging by a thread. 

Out in Los Angeles, the Dodgers look to close it out at home, but this one sets up as a classic pitcher’s duel with Cristopher Sánchez and Tyler Glasnow both dealing in peak form. One game screams blowout potential, the other feels like a low-scoring grind. 

Let’s break down where the sharp money belongs.

Tonight’s Best Bets – Quick Hits

Brewers @ Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-110) – Pitching depth to shut the door late
Over 7 (-112) – Vulnerable Cubs bullpen

Phillies @ Dodgers
Under 7.5 (-105) – Starters in elite form

Game 4: Brewers @ Cubs – Best Bets Breakdown

Milwaukee’s got the pitching mismatch of the series. Peralta’s been untouchable against Chicago all year, but the real edge is in the bullpen between the two teams. The Cubs are running on empty after Game 3, and if Boyd can’t give them length, this turns into a bullpen game by the fourth inning.

X-Factor: Milwaukee’s Bullpen Depth vs. Chicago’s Fatigue

The bullpen battle is where Milwaukee has a massive edge. The Cubs burned through multiple high-leverage arms in Game 3 to keep themselves alive, and now they’re facing a Game 4 with a tired bullpen and a starter who can’t be trusted to go deep. If the Cubs can’t get innings from Boyd, Craig Counsell is going to be forced into a bullpen game by the third or fourth inning, and that’s a death sentence against a Brewers lineup that’s been opportunistic all series.

Milwaukee’s bullpen, meanwhile, is rested and ready. Devin Williams and Joel Payamps are fresh, and even if Peralta doesn’t go deep, the Brewers have the arms to piece together seven or eight innings without breaking a sweat. That depth matters in an elimination game, especially when the Cubs’ offense has been feast-or-famine. Chicago’s top of the order—Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, and Ian Happ—has been producing, but their bottom half has been a complete non-factor. If Milwaukee can keep the top three quiet and force the Cubs to rely on their 6-9 hitters, this game could spiral quickly.

Best Bets

1. Milwaukee Brewers ML (-110)

This is the cleanest play on the board. Peralta has dominated the Cubs all season and Milwaukee’s bullpen has a significant freshness advantage. I project the Brewers at around 56.5% to win, which makes this line borderline disrespectful. Even if the Cubs scratch out a few runs early, Milwaukee has the pitching depth to shut the door late. At near pick’em odds, this is a solid play.

2. Over 7 Total Runs (-115)

Peralta has been great against the Cubs, but familiarity can cut both ways. Chicago has seen him five times this season, and while they haven’t solved him yet, that repeated exposure gives them a better shot at making adjustments. Boyd’s inability to go deep combined with a Cubs bullpen that’s already gassed means there will be plenty of opportunities for both offenses to do damage. Milwaukee’s top of the order has been producing all series, and even if Peralta keeps the Cubs quiet early, the back end of Chicago’s bullpen is vulnerable. The total sitting at 7 feels soft given the offensive talent on both sides and the likelihood of bullpen innings piling up.

Player Props Worth a Look

Christian Yelich Over 1.5 Total Bases
Yelich has been Milwaukee’s most consistent bat all series, and if the Cubs have to go to the bullpen early, Yelich could feast in the middle innings.

Game 4: Phillies @ Dodgers – Best Bets Breakdown

The Dodgers are one win away from closing out the series, but this game sets up as a classic pitcher’s duel. Cristopher Sánchez takes the ball for Philadelphia coming off one of the best stretches of his season—a 1.4 ERA over his last five starts, including an eight-strikeout performance against the Dodgers in Game 1. Tyler Glasnow counters for Los Angeles, and he’s been just as locked in with a 1.8 ERA over his last five outings.

Matchup Edge: Elite Starters in Peak Form

Both starters are dealing right now, and that’s the biggest reason to fade the inflated total. Cristopher Sánchez has been phenomenal down the stretch, carving up lineups with his changeup and sinker combination. He struck out eight Dodgers hitters in Game 1, and Los Angeles has shown throughout the season that they struggle against left-handed pitching—especially when it’s coming from a guy who can command the bottom of the zone and generate ground balls. The Dodgers’ bottom half of the lineup strikes out at a 24% clip against lefties, and if Sánchez can neutralize Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts early, the rest of the order isn’t going to bail them out.

Tyler Glasnow is every bit as dangerous. His fastball-curveball combo has been electric, and he’s averaging strikeouts at an elite rate. The Phillies have done a better job of making contact this series, but Glasnow’s ability to miss bats in key spots gives him a massive edge. If he can work six innings and hand it to the Dodgers’ back-end relievers with a lead, this game stays under comfortably.

Best Bets

1. Under 7.5 Total Runs (+100)

This is the top value play on the slate. Both starters are in elite form, the bullpens have stabilized, and the market is overreacting to Game 3’s explosion. I project 7 total runs, and even if one offense scratches out an extra run late, this should still stay under. At even money, you’re getting a fair price on a game that screams pitcher’s duel. Sánchez and Glasnow are both capable of going deep, and if they hand clean leads to their bullpens, this stays low-scoring.

Player Props Worth a Look

Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases 

Turner has been the Phillies’ most consistent bat all series, hitting .417 with two stolen bases and multiple hard-hit balls. He’s got a strong track record against power righties like Glasnow, and in a game expected to stay tight, leadoff production will be crucial. 

Cristopher Sánchez Over Strikeouts

Sánchez has been racking up strikeouts lately, averaging 6.8 per start over his last five outings. He punched out eight Dodgers hitters in Game 1, and Los Angeles continues to struggle against left-handed pitching—especially in the bottom half of their lineup. If Sánchez works into the sixth inning (which he’s done in nine of his last ten starts), he should clear this number comfortably. The volume is there, the matchup is favorable, and the price is fair.