MLB Best Bets for October 10, 2025: Cubs vs. Brewers Game 5
Summary
Facing elimination, Chicago holds significant advantages over Milwaukee. The Cubs’ offense is finally clicking, with their top hitters producing, while the Brewers have managed only three runs in the last two games. A clear pitching edge exists with Shota Imanaga’s superior command over Jacob Misiorowski, whose high walk rate is a major liability. Chicago’s bullpen is also fresher, making them a strong value play as underdogs.
The game is also projected to be high-scoring. Imanaga has a tendency to give up home runs, and Milwaukee’s hitters are now familiar with him. Furthermore, Misiorowski’s control issues and a taxed Brewers bullpen should lead to traffic on the bases. This combination suggests both teams will contribute to the scoreboard exceeding the total, with the Cubs’ patient lineup well-positioned to score over four runs themselves.
Game 5. Win or go home. The crowd favors Milwaukee—but the matchup favors Chicago. Chicago’s offense is finally clicking at the right time—their top five hitters have stacked quality at-bats and damage over the last two games—while Milwaukee has managed just 3 total runs in that same span. Add in a significant pitching edge, and you’ve got a recipe for value on the underdog.
Note: This analysis assumes the expected starting pitchers (Imanaga for Chicago, Misiorowski for Milwaukee). If lineups shift, these edges may change—always confirm starters before locking in your action.
Game 5: Cubs @ Brewers – Best Bets Breakdown
1) Cubs Moneyline (+113)
Edge in one line:
Books are pricing Milwaukee’s home crowd instead of the actual pitching matchup.
The Breakdown:
This number isn’t about the teams—it’s about the venue. The public is leaning too hard on Milwaukee’s home-field aura. Shota Imanaga vs. Jacob Misiorowski isn’t close when you dig into the numbers—Imanaga owns a 0.99 WHIP and has issued 26 walks all season. Misiorowski? He’s at 1.24 WHIP with 31 walks in far fewer innings. Command wins playoff games, and the Cubs have it on the mound.
Chicago’s offense is also heating up at the right time. Their top five hitters—Busch, Hoerner, Tucker, Suzuki, Happ—are finally stringing together quality at-bats and damage. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has scored a combined 3 runs over the last two games. That’s not momentum, that’s a stalled engine.
Add in the bullpen edge: Cubs relief has allowed 1 run over the last 14.1 innings while Milwaukee’s middle relief got stretched thin in Game 4 (Gasser 46 pitches, Ashby 32). Milwaukee’s piecing it together with a worn-out bullpen. The Cubs have the better arm starting, hotter bats—and they’re sitting at plus-money. This is the best value play tonight.
2) Full Game Over 7.5 (-104)
Edge in one line:
Imanaga’s HR leak meets Milwaukee’s bullpen chaos and a Cubs lineup that’s seeing the ball well—recipe for runs on both sides.
The Breakdown:
Imanaga’s been solid, but he’s got one notable leak: the home run ball. The Brewers have already seen him twice this series, and familiarity breeds contact. When hitters get multiple looks at a starter in a short window, they start to time him up. Expect Milwaukee to put at least one over the fence.
On the flip side, Misiorowski’s walk rate, combined with Milwaukee’s bullpen rotation, sets the stage for traffic on the bases and constant reliever volatility. That’s a classic recipe for crooked numbers. The Cubs’ team total alone projects north of 4 runs, which pushes this game over even if Milwaukee’s bats stay relatively quiet.
Walks plus bullpen day equals traffic. Traffic equals runs.
3) Cubs Team Total Over 3.5 (-110)
Edge in one line:
Misiorowski’s 10 walks in 11 innings, plus a short leash, means Chicago gets multiple cracks at Milwaukee’s taxed middle relief.
The Breakdown:
Misiorowski has walked 10 batters in his last 11 innings. That’s not a trend, that’s a liability. And with Milwaukee expected to yank him early, the Cubs will get multiple cracks at the softer middle relief arms that already got taxed in Game 4.
Chicago’s patient lineup—top-10 in walk rate during the regular season—is built to exploit this exact scenario. Multiple left-handed bats (Busch, Tucker, PCA) will work counts and force Misiorowski into hitter-friendly zones. When you’re getting free baserunners and a short leash on the opposing starter, 4 runs is the floor, not the ceiling.
The Cubs’ top-five hitters are carrying the offense right now, and they’re seeing the ball well. This number should be closer to -140. Jump on it.
Player Props To Target
1) Michael Busch Over 1.5 Total Bases
Busch has homered in back-to-back games and logged five hard-hit events over the last two contests. He’s locked in from the left side, and he draws a right-handed pitcher with control issues. Low chase rate means Busch will see hitters’ counts, and his extra-base power plays in Milwaukee.
2) Jacob Misiorowski Over 1.5 Walks
Misiorowski’s issued 31 walks in 66 innings (4.2 BB/9), and he walked two in just three innings his last time out in this series. The Cubs work counts, they take their walks, and multiple lefties in the lineup will force him into uncomfortable spots. Even if he gets pulled early, two free passes before the hook is a realistic outcome.
Recap: Best Bets for Cubs @ Brewers Game 5
| Bet | Line | Reason |
| Cubs ML | +113 | Command advantage, hot bats vs cold bats, bullpen edge |
| Over 7.5 | -104 | HR risk + bullpen chaos + familiarity = scoring volatility |
| Cubs TT Over 3.5 | -110 | Walks + short leash = traffic; patient lineup exploits chaos |
