CFB AP Top 25 Best Bets – Week 7

We are almost halfway through the 2025 college football season. Ohio State is as good as expected after winning the national championship last year, but the top two teams in the Preseason AP Top 25 are in serious danger of missing the College Football Playoff. Penn State and Texas have already lost twice and have fallen out of the rankings as a result of their most recent performances. The Longhorns do have a chance of righting the ship immediately though if they can knock off arch rival Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry on Saturday afternoon.

Pittsburgh Panthers +10 at No. 25 Florida State Seminoles

The Florida State Seminoles were the most disappointing team in college football last season. Florida State was ranked No. 10 in the preseason, but the Seminoles finished the season with a 2-10 record and only recorded one win against an FBS opponent despite reportedly spending $12 million on NIL. That caused a major shakeup in the offseason, and new quarterback Tommy Castellanos immediately turned around FSU’s fortunes by leading the Seminoles to a surprising upset of Alabama in Week 1.

FSU crushed its next two outmatched opponents, but the Seminoles have stumbled in back-to-back weeks. Their defense collapsed in an obvious trap game against Virginia, and they could only muster three points through three quarters against Miami last Saturday night. Castellanos threw four picks in those two losses, so look for Gus Malzahn and the offense to get back to basics with a heavy emphasis on the run game.

This offensive line dominated against Alabama in Week 1 and didn’t allow a sack through three games before surrendering four sacks over the last two weeks. Now, they will have to face the top run defense in the country as the Pittsburgh Panthers are surrendering just 1.9 YPC. Pitt allowed just 27 rushing yards on 24 carries in a blowout win over Boston College last week.

Malzahn’s offense hasn’t been innovative in over a decade. UCF was happy to get off the Gus Bus last offseason, and I expect the Panthers to bottle up the FSU ground game. The Seminoles will probably get the win, but a double-digit spread is too much given how one-dimensional FSU looks to be on offense.

Texas Longhorns -1.5 vs. No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners

John Mateer has been the storyline all week long in the Red River Rivalry. Mateer was considered the Heisman Trophy favorite per CFB futures odds before suffering a broken bone in his hand in Oklahoma’s win over Auburn. The initial reports were that the Washington State transfer would miss about a month, but he was just upgraded to probable on Thursday night. If he were to play, it would be an extremely quick turnaround as Mateer underwent surgery just 17 days before Saturday’s game.

The preseason Heisman Trophy favorite per the CFB futures odds was Arch Manning. It’s been an incredibly disappointing year for Manning as many were expecting him to win the Heisman Trophy with preseason No. 1 Texas before being the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Instead, Manning has floundered with poor performances against Ohio State, UTEP, and Florida.

Texas’ offense has had some major hiccups, but the defense is elite. The Longhorns rank 4th in Defensive SP+ and are allowing just 2.7 YPC. They have been outstanding at getting off the field on 3rd and 4th down too, keeping the starters fresh. Texas doesn’t have to rely on havoc plays like sacks and interceptions either, but instead keep the opponents behind schedule on down and distance scenarios.

Kudos to Mateer for his guts, but this is too quick of a turnaround after a surgery. This wouldn’t be much of a factor if Mateer broke a bone in his non-throwing hand, but he broke a bone in his throwing hand and many reports indicate that it was a bone in his thumb. That will affect Mateer’s grip and zip, and he will need to be on point with his timing and windows against an outstanding defense.

No. 3 Oregon Ducks -7 vs. No. 7 Indiana Hoosiers

All Curt Cignetti does is win. Cignetti has completely turned around the fortunes of the moribund Indiana Hoosiers in lightning speed. Indiana went 3-9 in 2023, so the Hoosiers would have been delighted if Cignetti simply led the program back to a bowl game. Instead, he surpassed even the wildest of expectations in 2024. Indiana finished the regular season 11-1 and made the College Football Playoff.

The Hoosiers take care of business against flawed teams. Indiana went 11-0 against unranked teams in 2024, and the Hoosiers are 4-0 against unranked teams thus far in 2025. They crushed No. 9 Illinois 63-10 at home a few weeks ago, but they did lose by double digits to elite teams in Notre Dame and Ohio State last season.

Oregon is an elite team. The Ducks rank 1st in Overall SP+, 2nd in Offensive SP+, and 3rd in Defensive SP+. They were the No. 1 overall seed in the CFP last season, and Dan Lanning has the Ducks poised to get a first-round bye this season too.

Dante Moore is among the Heisman Trophy favorites with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 14-1. Moore led the Ducks to four straight blowout victories to start the season, and he was excellent in Oregon’s double overtime win over Penn State in Happy Valley two weeks ago.

This line is at least three points too low. Although Indiana is very good, the Hoosiers have yet to show that they can beat teams with elite talent. Oregon is being discounted a bit after Penn State’s stunning loss to UCLA last week, but that was largely a letdown situation for the Nittany Lions. I expect the Ducks to do what Ohio State and Notre Dame did against Indiana last season. Both teams were able to dominate the line of scrimmage and took 20+ point leads in the fourth quarter, so don’t be surprised if Oregon turns this game into a bit of a laugher with alum Sabrina Ionescu in attendance as the College GameDay guest picker.